Help me price out these upcoming UFA/RFA's!!!

[Fighting_Emu]

I know its not an exact science but Im way outside my depth trying to pecil in numbers for these guys! Very much open to ballpark swings at

UFAs:

Neal
Perron
E Kane
Maroon
Vanek (assuming 2ish again)

RFAs

Colin Miller
Saros
Hartman

[Eskimo Brother]

All numbers are pulled straight from my model. I make no guarantees on this, just another POV.

Neal $6.489M x 5yrs
Perron $6.239M x 5yrs
E Kane $6.539M x 7yrs (but I don't see any team risking 7 yrs on Kane)
Maroon $5.078M x 5yrs
Vanek $3.772 x 3yrs (It'll be smaller because Vanek is now just known as a rental)
Colin Miller $3.262 x 3yrs
Saros - My model doesn't do goalies, but I had an article not too long ago where I pegged him at about $2.35M x 3yrs
Hartman $3.070M x 3yrs (I would expect it to be a little closer to Jarnkrok's though)

[Fighting_Emu]

Ok nice.

Maroon really stops being a bargain at that price- but in our format he ranks surprisingly well so probably have to keep him. I really thought he'd sign for much less when I asked for him back in my Patty Kane trade. i gave up a lot of good assets- OEL, Toffoli and Palmieri- all high sog guys too- which are my favorite . Im not saying hes not worth 5 but at that price point youre paying for his ceiling as opposed to his floor. I hope he signs for a bit less but he'll probably get the money especially with his "intangibles".

Yuck @ the Perron contract. Not yuck at your estimation- because I figured that too- but yuck that hes going to get paid for what most likely is an outlier season...

[Eskimo Brother]

Yeah, take it with a grain of salt. A couple of those numbers seem a little high, and some a little low. Personally I don't think Maroon breaks 5M. I think 4M makes more sense.

[Moses]

If a GM gives Maroon $5M x 5 years that GM should be fired on the spot!!

[als_revenge]

All numbers are pulled straight from my model. I make no guarantees on this, just another POV.

Neal $6.489M x 5yrs
Perron $6.239M x 5yrs
E Kane $6.539M x 7yrs (but I don't see any team risking 7 yrs on Kane)
Maroon $5.078M x 5yrs
Vanek $3.772 x 3yrs (It'll be smaller because Vanek is now just known as a rental)
Colin Miller $3.262 x 3yrs
Saros - My model doesn't do goalies, but I had an article not too long ago where I pegged him at about $2.35M x 3yrs
Hartman $3.070M x 3yrs (I would expect it to be a little closer to Jarnkrok's though)

Why isn't your model a Dobber tool?

Too much $ for Perron. Miller will get more! And like you, I laugh at anyone signing Kane long-term. He'll spend the first 5 years of that contract battling injuries and inconsistency...

[Eskimo Brother]

Why isn't your model a Dobber tool?

Too much $ for Perron. Miller will get more! And like you, I laugh at anyone signing Kane long-term. He'll spend the first 5 years of that contract battling injuries and inconsistency...

Because it's still in its infancy. Needs a lot of work. Decent base at this point but it has a lot of situations to be added, stats to be considered and tinkering with weightings.

[ericdaoust]

Why isn't your model a Dobber tool?

Be careful what you wish for

[Eskimo Brother]

Be careful what you wish for

Are you putting something together for Frozen Tools?

[ericdaoust]

Are you putting something together for Frozen Tools?

Not anytime soon, I was kidding around because the concept could eventually become a useful tool under the "Research" menu

[Eskimo Brother]

It could very well. I don't see being fully satisfied with it for at least another year though (tough to be fully satisfied with any kind of predictive model).

We'll see how it goes

[als_revenge]

Because it's still in its infancy. Needs a lot of work. Decent base at this point but it has a lot of situations to be added, stats to be considered and tinkering with weightings.

In my humble opinion, a tool is never "too soon." I bet you'll be tweaking and improving it for as long as you play fantasy hockey.

And looking at the numbers being spit out - sure, they aren't perfect. But they never will be. But it gives one a starting point for thinking about things.

I'm more curious about how you determine the length of contract as opposed to the dollar figures...

[Eskimo Brother]

In my humble opinion, a tool is never "too soon." I bet you'll be tweaking and improving it for as long as you play fantasy hockey.

And looking at the numbers being spit out - sure, they aren't perfect. But they never will be. But it gives one a starting point for thinking about things.

I'm more curious about how you determine the length of contract as opposed to the dollar figures...

Right now it's some formula that I slapped together combining different variables of previous contract, dollar figure, age, and a couple of other little things.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Neal - either $6M per year for 3 years or $5.3M for 4 - teams are wise enough to give him either only 4 years or less money for 3
Perron - he was a journeyman before this season, and I think teams won't be suckered in, so I'll peg him at $4.75 per year for 5 years
E Kane - this is where someone will overpay, and I like EB's ballpark
Maroon - youth will get him 6 years but unproven state will put him below $5m per season; I'd say $4.45M per year for 6 years
Vanek - no way he gets more than 2 years, but someone will pay him $7M for those two years
Colin Miller - If Vegas didn't have the assets they did he'd be getting over $20M total for 5 years. I still think he gets 4 years, but probably at only $12M total
Saros - Nashville wants their insurance policy, so I'll say $2.4M for two years
Hartman - it will be only 2 years and somewhere around $2.75M per season

[Bubba55]

In my humble opinion, a tool is never "too soon." I bet you'll be tweaking and improving it for as long as you play fantasy hockey.

And looking at the numbers being spit out - sure, they aren't perfect. But they never will be. But it gives one a starting point for thinking about things.

I'm more curious about how you determine the length of contract as opposed to the dollar figures...

I'm seconding that vote (:

I get a kick out of how some folks want tools whether rankings, pts predictions, whatever, that are bullet proof. Any well considered opinion, if you will, in the form of a tool perfect or not, is all good.