Two moves left; make it or break it semifinals. What do I do?

[vonderpibe]

This week has been crazy tight for the league and team in my sig. I started off with a decent lead but I'm now losing 7 - 6. I've got 2 moves left and the OGM has none so I'm trying to figure out what to do to try and win (or tie since I'd win if we tie). I'll try to give you as much info as possible to see if you can help me out!

The current stats are:
Me: 21 G, 23 A, +1, 19 PIM, 8 PPP, 152 SOG, 129 FW, 71 HIT, 52 BLK, 3 W, 2.42 GAA, .913 SV%, 1 SHO
OGM: 12 G, 22 A, +20, 24 PIM, 11 PPP, 118 SOG, 188 FW, 64 HIT, 43 BLK, 4 W, 2.25 GAA, .921 SV%, 0 SHO

As you can see, the close categories are: Assists, Hits, BLKS, W, GAA, and SV%, with maybe PIM in there.

OGM has more skaters (and probably of better caliber) playing today than I currently do:

Me	OGM
Schenn	Kesler
Zetterberg	Backstrom
Lucic	Namestinkov
Lee	Schwartz
McNabb	Maroon
Byfuglien	Konecny
Larsson	Palmieri
	Rakell
	Zadorov
	Nurse
	Giordano
	Manson
Gibson (ANA)

Now here's what I'm thinking...

If I Gibson is playing, I can pick up Schneider and guarantee a win, bringing that category down to a tie... but that doesn't guarantee me any improvements in SV% or GAA. There are other goalies I can pick up if I want to to target G categories but I don't know who will be playing yet. Some names still available in addition to Schneider:Varlamov, Subban, Montoya, Budaj, Gibson (NYI), Mrazek, Forsberg, Hutton

Alternatively, I can try and chase some of the skater categories (with 2 extra skaters instead of 1). Realistically, I'd need to hold my ground in Assists, Hits, and Blocks...but it might be possible to catch up in PIM or PPP but let's not bank on that... So, possible skaters I could pick up are: Gudas, RNH, T. Johnson, E. Lindholm, J. Williams, Soderberg, Jost, S. Johns, Nyquist, Glendening, Hischier, Coleman, Noesen, Boyle, Montour, Pulock, Nelson, Boychuk, R. Johnston, Steen, Niskanen, Orlov, Orpik, Enstrom, Connor, Perreault, Hayden,
Roussel, Caggiula, Myers, Abdelkader, B. Tanev...


With all that said (I know it's a lot), what do you think would be the right call here?

[DusterDave]

Great post. This is why we love fantasy and why the Dobber Forums are such a great place.

Now here is what I would do... Add Schneider, secure a win and tie that category. Goalies are so hard to predict so why not go with a guarantee when you have the opportunity? you could get lucky and get a low scoring game and possibly pass him in GAA & SV%.
Since you are the winner via tie-breaker if it comes down to that, I wouldn't be chasing categories, I'd be securing close categories that I lead in already. That's why I'd add Boychuk and hope he has a big game in hits and blocks and maybe even an assist. You do however have a sizeable lead in blocks so you could even pick up a D-man specifically for hits.

Let us know what you end up doing and how it all works out for you. Rep'd!

[Dikoi]

Make sure Schneider is starting today though, I’m hearing Kinkaid might actually get the start again tonight

[vonderpibe]

Thanks for the feedback! It was close, but I lost 7 - 4.

Here's what went down...

I decided to go against my idea of picking up Varlamov (I still wasn't sure if he would do well vs DET or not) to instead guarantee the win to tie up the W. I picked logic instead of a hunch/going with my gut, which I think was the sound choice here. However, to do so, I had to wait until the Goalies were announced. Unfortunately, the goalies weren't announced until after 7:30. I got lucky that Gibson was in net since that wasn't announced until way later, but even Kinkaid starting wasn't announced until after 7:30. Had I picked up Varlamov, I think I would have won this week. Hindsight 20/20, I guess.

Because of that, I missed my chance to pick up someone from the early games up just in case I needed to make another move. Part of that was me not thinking ahead and making a move anyway, but such is life. I was likely going to pick up Gudas, which would have actually been great for me (2A, 2SOG, 2 HIT, 2 BLK). It wouldn't have been enough to win it anyway, so I'm not too bummed.

It's silly how fantasy works sometimes. My team was struggling to score goals all season, yet, they seemed to have no problem this week. On the contrary, I lost in PIMS and HIT, my typically highest categories.


The final stats were as follows:

Me: 24G, 25A, -1, 22 PIM, 13 PPP, 174 SOG, 150 FW, 83 HIT, 67 BLK, 4 W, 2.59 GAA, .906 SV%, 1 SHO
OGM: 15G, 27A, +24, 35 PIM, 13 PPP, 143 SOG, 208 FW, 89 HIT, 62 BLK, 4 W, 2.25 GAA, .921 SV%, 0 SHO


I think his biggest pick-up of the week (Zadorov) paid huge dividends for him. In two games, he had 1A, +5, 2 PIM, 2 SOG 14 HITs, 3 BLK. It hurts even more since I was thinking of picking him up the previous day but decided not to because I had a substantial lead in those categories...

[DusterDave]

Bummer. But that's fantasy for ya.