Barzal vs. Draisaitl - who ya got?

[RizzeeDizzee]

After two weeks of Vegas-themed Goldipucks columns, Cage Match is back with an epic match between Mathew Barzal and Leon Draisaitl: https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home...-vs-draisaitl/

Give it a read and share your thoughts here. In particular, what do you think about the player comparables for Barzal? Can he be a Crosby or Malkin type without shooting the puck at anywhere close to their rookie rates? And among the lower shooting pivots, do you see him as more Backstrom, Thornton, Getzlaf, or Stumpel, Gomez, Stastny, and why? Do you think Draisaitl is a safe bet to be a perennial 85+ point guy given how he's managed to still do this season despite Edmonton's lack of PP scoring and lower offense overall, or is he hurt by his dependence on McDavid and perhaps a drag on the PP himself, which would leave him a risk of being a perpetual 75-80 point guy but never truly a member of the fantasy elite?

[saucelife90]

I've watched around 8-10 games of both players this year which is a fairly small sample, but from what I've seen I'd have to say Barzal. The way this kid is taking games over at 20 years old is something special.

[Canucks_fan18]

Drai Drai Drai!

[MasterByte]

Even after the reading the cage match, I'm still leaning Barzal.

I think that Drais is posed to provide superior fantasy numbers for the immediate future, but I won't be sold on him as a player until he does it consistently without McDavid on his line. Most of Drais' points are scored with McDavid on the ice, where as most of Barzal's are without Tavares on the ice.

I also think that the stats don't tell the full story with respect to his low shot counts. Watching replays Barzal has fired the puck on net plenty and has gotten deflections from the net-front guy which turn into goals. Without the net-front deflection those are sog. To me he made those goals happen, and the boxscore only registers him with the Assist. I think we have a master play-maker on our hands.

[cheese_cake]

I am myself of the opinion that Draisaitl seems to depend upon McDavid to produce, which isn't in line with the team's objective to run them as their 1C / 2C (or so I understood of the Oilers' plan for them)

Between the two though, its hard not to pick Draisaitl over Barzal. I have my own fears over Barzal's production being too high and since I'm not a Barzal owner, I'm more on the cautious side and I would choose Draisaitl going forward.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Even after the reading the cage match, I'm still leaning Barzal.

I think that Drais is posed to provide superior fantasy numbers for the immediate future, but I won't be sold on him as a player until he does it consistently without McDavid on his line. Most of Drais' points are scored with McDavid on the ice, where as most of Barzal's are without Tavares on the ice.

I also think that the stats don't tell the full story with respect to his low shot counts. Watching replays Barzal has fired the puck on net plenty and has gotten deflections from the net-front guy which turn into goals. Without the net-front deflection those are sog. To me he made those goals happen, and the boxscore only registers him with the Assist. I think we have a master play-maker on our hands.

If this is indeed the case, how do you account for his high secondary assists numbers? If what you're saying is correct - and I haven't seen him play enough to say it isn't - wouldn't he have a higher share of primary assists rather than barely over 50%?

[RizzeeDizzee]

Guess I picked a good one since your choices seem to be pretty evenly split, at least so far. Keep the comments and feedback coming.

[saucelife90]

Guess I picked a good one since your choices seem to be pretty evenly split, at least so far. Keep the comments and feedback coming.

Probably the toughest one to pick a side and feel comfortable doing so. Great choices!

[MZac]

Dr Drai all the way sucka

[MasterByte]

I guess I don't consider that to be cause & effect.
Lets say we remove secondary assists entirely. We are looking at:
M.B. --> ~44pts in 69 games (0.64pts/game)
L.D. --> ~51pts in 61 games (0.83pts/game)

Now we factor in the McDavid effect and the fact that Drais is in his 3rd NHL year and is several years older. Barzal has also never had the ice time that Drais has gotten for years now.
On the other side of the coin you can say that Drais faces tougher opponents, but again, there is always a focus on McDavid over others. I'm not saying that Drais is Chris Kunitz, just that the jury is still out on what he can really do.

Also observe that, using the data from the cage match, Barzal's luck based metrics almost mirror those of Drais's rookie year. I understand that these are inherently difficult to compare as they are 'luck-based', but I anticipate Barzals secondary assist% lowering over the next couples years as Drais' has.


If all players receive a boon playing with McDavid, then it would only stand to reason to evaluate a player without that boon to analyze their contributions. Needing McDavid in order for Drais to perform means that the Oilers have over 20million of salary cap hit on a single line, which is going to make it very hard for them to win in a salary cap era. Lets see Drais do it without his crutch.

All of that being said, Drais is currently the better fantasy own. For salary cap leagues, or those with rookie/ELC keeper spots, I'd pick Barzal.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I guess I don't consider that to be cause & effect.
Lets say we remove secondary assists entirely. We are looking at:
M.B. --> ~44pts in 69 games (0.64pts/game)
L.D. --> ~51pts in 61 games (0.83pts/game)

Now we factor in the McDavid effect and the fact that Drais is in his 3rd NHL year and is several years older. Barzal has also never had the ice time that Drais has gotten for years now.
On the other side of the coin you can say that Drais faces tougher opponents, but again, there is always a focus on McDavid over others. I'm not saying that Drais is Chris Kunitz, just that the jury is still out on what he can really do.

Also observe that, using the data from the cage match, Barzal's luck based metrics almost mirror those of Drais's rookie year. I understand that these are inherently difficult to compare as they are 'luck-based', but I anticipate Barzals secondary assist% lowering over the next couples years as Drais' has.


If all players receive a boon playing with McDavid, then it would only stand to reason to evaluate a player without that boon to analyze their contributions. Needing McDavid in order for Drais to perform means that the Oilers have over 20million of salary cap hit on a single line, which is going to make it very hard for them to win in a salary cap era. Lets see Drais do it without his crutch.

All of that being said, Drais is currently the better fantasy own. For salary cap leagues, or those with rookie/ELC keeper spots, I'd pick Barzal.

All very fair and well-articulated points, but Barzal also never has to face the other team's toughest D - at least not thus far with Tavares still in town. As for Draisaitl, either he plays with McDavid or gets second toughest D like Barzal does now, which is a win-win either way.

[FrozenInferno]

The problem with Drai centering his own line is he usually has crap wingers to work with. He does generate plenty of plays and scoring chances but when the wingers are incapable of finishing those plays what is he supposed to do about it? He has put many a puck on a tee for a line mate who either fans on the puck or gets overwhelmed resulting in a dead play. Lucic has been a fixture on his line lately and that's one example of a guy who has been largely useless no matter who he plays with (even McJesus).

The Oilers need wingers BADLY. Even Nugent-Hopkins has been moved to McDavids wing to give him something to work with, and poor Drai is left to drag dead weight around the ice every shift.

What they should do is get some guys like Hall or Eberle. Oh wait..

[stevegamer]

I think it's league dependent. Just this year, it's going to come down to your roster and schedule.

Cap league or league where you have free keepers of rookies? You want Barzal, and I think he's inarguably one of the best bargains in hockey. If one wants to actually argue that he's not, I'd just ignore it and move on to discussing the weather.

League with a limited number of keeper years or slots, excluding free rookie keeps? I prefer Draisiatl for his relative safety of production, and longer track record. I think you can redraft Barzal slightly later.

[spacecowboy]

Neon Leon.

Oh, you didn't know that was his nickname? That's because I invented it and only told my closest friends. I'm still unreaslitiscally expecting for it to blow up and become mainstream just so I can achieve something in life since I'll be shouting ''Hey mom, are my chicken wings and fries ready?'' from her basement after I'm done posting this quick reply.

[Fighting_Emu]

I put him in the "elite non-shooter" category. Reminds me very much of Datsyuk the way he can absolutely dominate play with skill alone.

That being said I preferred Drai before and after. Hes benefitting but not dependant on McD. I think he could lkely benefit even more from aded chemistery down the line, more powerplay success, and more alent dispersed through the lineup to distract opposition checkers. I think hes "Malkin-lite"- the german version :P