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Thread: Help me value this pick

  1. #1
    65jeff's Avatar
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    Default Help me value this pick

    Joined a new league that has already drafted for next season. The way the league is set up, defensemen and centers are most valuable because there is a points and TOI bonus for defensemen and we score face off wins.

    It's H2H points, 16 teams, 22 man rosters, keep 15. We will keep 22 this season because play doesn't start until next season.

    We will have another draft for NHL Entry players in June. I have the 2nd overall pick.

    What is this pick worth? I'll have to drop a player when I make the pick, probably Lowry. The draftee will be rostered next season, but going into the 2019-20 season we'll be keeping 15. No special protection for rookies or prospects.

    A couple of guys want the pick, but I don't know what to offer. I see it as sort of a lottery ticket and not much more. Is that a correct way to view it? It's a limited keeper, but 15 is room to carry developing players. Not really sure what to make of it!

    Thoughts appreciated.

    The team:
    MacKinnon
    Hall
    Ghost
    Risto
    Boeser
    Fiala
    Point
    R. Smith
    Landeskog
    Tuch
    Athanasiou
    Kase
    Montour
    Ceci
    Reinhart
    Dunn
    Lindell
    Weber
    Lowry
    Borgstrom
    Elliot
    Schneider
    23-24 NHL Schedule
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1242679413
    See number of games, off night games and back to back games for each match up

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Help me value this pick

    best thing to do is go through each team and predict their top 15 keepers.. time consuming I know, but putting it in a spread sheet makes it easy. I'd then rank each teams top 5 drops. Once those potential drops are predicted - you'll get an idea of what the value of that pick is. there's always surprises as someone may prefer to go heavy D & G dropping a much more valuable F than expected. Sounds like most teams will go heavy C and D, meaning you might find a Lehner or Hartman dropped.

    Regardless, it's got limited value. Especially right now
    Follow me on twitter: @doylelb4

  3. #3
    Bubba55's Avatar
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    Default Re: Help me value this pick

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    best thing to do is go through each team and predict their top 15 keepers.. time consuming I know, but putting it in a spread sheet makes it easy. I'd then rank each teams top 5 drops. Once those potential drops are predicted - you'll get an idea of what the value of that pick is. there's always surprises as someone may prefer to go heavy D & G dropping a much more valuable F than expected. Sounds like most teams will go heavy C and D, meaning you might find a Lehner or Hartman dropped.

    Regardless, it's got limited value. Especially right now
    And everyone thinks this fantasy hockey thing is a piece of cake (:

    Lucafen is right though, the only way to get a good feel on what the value of the pick might be is to roll up your sleeves and crunch through the rosters.
    14 Team Roto; Keep 25; 12 F, 6 D, 2 G; 10 Farm; 5 Bench; 5 IR;

    Salary Cap - 102.5 Mil

    Scoring Cats: G, A, Pts, PIM, Hits, BS, SOG, F Points, D Points; Win+Ties+SO, GAA, SV%

    Keepers

    F: Aho, Larkin, DeBrincat, Vrana, Bennett, Scheifele, Kakko,Tolvanen, McBain,

    D: Heiskanen, Fox, Toews, Lundqvist

    G: Swayman, Andersen, Copley

    Drops

    F: Gaudreau, Terravainen, Puljujarvi, Kravstov, Zary

    D: Brannstrom, Cernak, Alexeyev

    G: Korpisalo, Merzlikins

    FARM: Rossi, Berggren, Holtz, Savoie, Clarke, Tarasov, Wolf

  4. #4
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    Default Re: Help me value this pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Bubba55 View Post
    And everyone thinks this fantasy hockey thing is a piece of cake (:

    Lucafen is right though, the only way to get a good feel on what the value of the pick might be is to roll up your sleeves and crunch through the rosters.
    it does create somewhat of an advantage. When 16 teams are all dropping 6+ players, sorting through 90+names is harder than opening your spreadsheet and updating it based on who was kept and who was dropped. a couple clicks to move players from drop to keep sections. You'll find you're familiar with 80% of the drops when they occur.

    Just by looking at Team #6's keepers for example you'll likely remember he dropped player a,b,c without looking at your spread sheet. Depending on how OCD you become doing this, that drop list becomes a template for your re-draft order... said another way - draft day advantage
    Follow me on twitter: @doylelb4

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