Pastrnak vs. Laine - who ya got?

[RizzeeDizzee]

As promised a few weeks ago in this thread (https://forums.dobbersports.com/show...ighlight=laine), I've gone ahead and done a Cage Match pitting Pastrnak against Laine. You can read it here: https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home...-patrik-laine/

Oftentimes I try to hype up Cage Matches, but this one indeed is a doozie, featuring arguably two of the top young wingers in the NHL. Give it a read and come here to share your thoughts on the conclusions I reached, my patented player comparables, or these two in general.

Do you think Pastrnak has hit his ceiling already, due to ice time constraints? Are you concerned about his production being too tied to the line he's on? Is Laine at risk of being too much of a goal-centric player, who in turn won't be able to post much more than 70 points? And does that matter if 40 of those points are goals? Can he see his ice time rise back to previous levels, or will Winnipeg place winning as a team over Laine getting a chance to truly shine?

The stakes are higher in this match than arguably any I've done in a while,. so let's hopefully get a lot of discussion going.

[RizzeeDizzee]

No feedback or discussion? I'm never sure whether that means the Cage Match essentially speaks for itself, or, in this case, that folks already feel like all the necessary discussion occurred in the prior forum thread. Oh well. Next week Goldipucks is back.

[Axeman33]

Good read. I am just seeing this thread now for some reason???

Just to be clear (the "who wins" part of the column confuses me a bit), Pastrnak is the winner with the exception of leagues who put a premium on goals. Normally you have a clear winner, one way or the other.

[havanablast21]

I just saw it now too. was there a delay?

Agree with Axe. Interesting read but I too was left wondering about the Winner. You're giving the edge to Laine in goal premium leagues...otherwise it's a nod for Pasta? Too wishy washy. I don't want to have to think for myself. I want you to pick one so I can agree or trash it here.

But good read

[FrozenInferno]

I went after both players early in the season, I couldn't land Pasta but I did make a strong push and acquired Laine. He's going to be one of my franchise wingers for a long time and I'm excited to see what he does with some more experience, first line minutes, and an elite center to play with. I'm hoping his ceiling is close to, or maybe a touch under, Kucherov's (less assists perhaps, ballpark of 50 goals and 90 pts).

That is a comparison I'd love to read: Kucherov's early career path compared to what Laine has done so far and whether he can follow the same track.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Thanks for the feedback. I think the thread was missed because I posted it mid-afternoon (Eastern time) after the column went live. Ian tends to post Cage Match around 3pm Eastern, whereas Dobber gets it on the site by 9AM Eastern. To each his own.

Yeah - I was a bit wishy-washy about the winner. What I meant about goal-heavy was that Laine could see a stat line of 35-45 goals and only 20-30 assists in the next few seasons, which means Pasta could outpoint him by 5-10 points, plus their peripherals are close. But I think no question Laine has a chance to be truly special, while Pasta probably will be only "merely great". What's also intriguing is Pasta is set to be a UFA just after he turns 28, while still in his prime. Until then, the concern is he's already playing on a great line and already posting a high P/60, so it's unclear where he goes from here. Probably we'll see in another couple of seasons once Bergeron and Marchand slow down.

[estarr31]

I posted this on the article but might as well share here for thoughts:

This is an interesting evaluation, thank you. Just from the eye-test of watching a lot of Bruins games this year (I'm a Marchand-Bergeron-Pasta owner but only keeping March and Pasta), it just looks like Pasta is a different style of player than Marchand, which is obvious I know, but I guess it's not surprising that he does better with elite players than without. He's a sniper with a big shot, who loves to show off that shot, so he needs to be set up and fed. In the right season and team, he can be a 75-80 point player but likely will be that 65-75 point range. Dare I say he has a simialr profile as another former Bruin, Phil Kessel?
How does Pasta compare to Panarin? I like Pasta's talent better but just curious. Similarly, would Patrick Kane be Pasta's best-case scenario? They seem like similar profiles and have similar age 20 seasons.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Interesting to hear the Kane/Pasta and Laine/Kucherov early years comparisons. I think Kane was a more do it yourself player, and thus doesn't lend himself to comparison to Pasta, and Kucherov was not a featured asset in his first season, so he too might not be ripe for comparison to Laine.

[havanablast21]

Thanks for the feedback. I think the thread was missed because I posted it mid-afternoon (Eastern time) after the column went live. Ian tends to post Cage Match around 3pm Eastern, whereas Dobber gets it on the site by 9AM Eastern. To each his own.

Yeah - I was a bit wishy-washy about the winner. What I meant about goal-heavy was that Laine could see a stat line of 35-45 goals and only 20-30 assists in the next few seasons, which means Pasta could outpoint him by 5-10 points, plus their peripherals are close. But I think no question Laine has a chance to be truly special, while Pasta probably will be only "merely great". What's also intriguing is Pasta is set to be a UFA just after he turns 28, while still in his prime. Until then, the concern is he's already playing on a great line and already posting a high P/60, so it's unclear where he goes from here. Probably we'll see in another couple of seasons once Bergeron and Marchand slow down.

That's garbage!
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Just kidding. but I did promise I'd trash your "winner". lol

I see where you're coming from now. I think you're leaning Laine as the true winner here (special considerations aside).

Again, good compare and great Cage Match!

[estarr31]

Interesting to hear the Kane/Pasta and Laine/Kucherov early years comparisons. I think Kane was a more do it yourself player, and thus doesn't lend himself to comparison to Pasta, and Kucherov was not a featured asset in his first season, so he too might not be ripe for comparison to Laine.

I get that. But would you say Kane would be his best-case scenario or is that even too much? I feel Pasta has a very high ceiling, and he's about to post back to back 70-point seasons in only his third and fourth full seasons (one less if you throw out his injured-2016). Seems hard to believe that that could be his peak but I do acknowledge all the numbers you provided.

Either way, feels like picking between Laine and Pasta is a good problem to have. Being the loser there still is no small thing.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I get that. But would you say Kane would be his best-case scenario or is that even too much? I feel Pasta has a very high ceiling, and he's about to post back to back 70-point seasons in only his third and fourth full seasons (one less if you throw out his injured-2016). Seems hard to believe that that could be his peak but I do acknowledge all the numbers you provided.

Either way, feels like picking between Laine and Pasta is a good problem to have. Being the loser there still is no small thing.

Kane is a special player who was able to tally 100 points without anyone else on his team tallying even 80. Even though he's still 21, I cannot see Pasta being capable of that at any point down the road. If I had to liken him to someone from the last 10-15 years, I might go with perhaps Patrik Elias, Martin Straka, or a pre-injury Martin Havlat.

[Hockeykid16]

wish I went with Laine right now. at the trade deadline I had a choice between Laine and Pastrnak and I went with Pastrnak.