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Thread: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

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    Default Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    Hi guys,

    I know Erik Karlsson isn't resigning yet but if we assume that he would resign for around 12M$ per year for 8 years.
    In a keeper cap league where only points and +/- count for defensemen and the cap ceiling follows the NHL cap ceiling, would you say he's worth keeping at that price or it would be better to trade him and get more for the money?
    My league is wierd in the sense that +/- make up such an important factor in the point system, if a D does 3pts and is -3 one night, that would get him 0 fantasy points for the night; or 3pts +3 = 6FPs.

    In that context, better trade Karlsson for another D or wait if he gets signed as a UFA for a better team that will make him a consistent positive +/- player and eat up his 12M$ cap hit then?

    Looking forward to hearing your comments/analyses.

    P.S. 18 teams, keep 7, forwards are points only. Ds are pts & +/-. Positions don't count other than FW, D, G. My current keepers are McDavid, Tarasenko, Marner, Granlund, Karlsson, Josi, Gostisbehere.
    7 Keepers Salary Cap League (73M Cap)/ 18 Teams / 10 FW, 5 D, 2G, 2 Scratches.
    FW: 1pt = 1 FPt
    D: 1pt = 1 FPt & +/- = +or- 1 FPt
    G: (TOI*0.05/GAA)

    FW: Mitchell Marner, Nathan MacKinnon, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Connor McDavid, John Tavares, Daniel Sedin, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tobias Rieder, Claude Giroux, Matt Cullen, Mathew Barzal
    D: John Carlson, Mike Green, Ivan Provorov, Kevin Shattenkirk, Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie
    G: Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    $12 million for 8 years would be a tough pill to swallow so, I would try shipping him out for Josi and some other assets.

    Reasons

    1) Josi is on such a cap friendly contract it would be a huge cost-saving.
    2) You could get other critical assets.
    3) The Josi owner might be concerned at how he is not the top fantasy D man there this year (Which I would not be concerned - both Josi and Subban will be good fantasy assets going forward)

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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    You can look for a trade but barring a good deal you can keep Karlsson for now and making it a year-to-year decision about whether or not to keep him or trade/drop him moving forward.


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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    Quote Originally Posted by PenguinHunter View Post
    $12 million for 8 years would be a tough pill to swallow so, I would try shipping him out for Josi and some other assets.

    Reasons

    1) Josi is on such a cap friendly contract it would be a huge cost-saving.
    2) You could get other critical assets.
    3) The Josi owner might be concerned at how he is not the top fantasy D man there this year (Which I would not be concerned - both Josi and Subban will be good fantasy assets going forward)
    Problem is I am the owner of Josi , as you can see in my keepers list at the end of the thread. I have Josi and Ghost also. So I'd have to go find for someone else.
    7 Keepers Salary Cap League (73M Cap)/ 18 Teams / 10 FW, 5 D, 2G, 2 Scratches.
    FW: 1pt = 1 FPt
    D: 1pt = 1 FPt & +/- = +or- 1 FPt
    G: (TOI*0.05/GAA)

    FW: Mitchell Marner, Nathan MacKinnon, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Connor McDavid, John Tavares, Daniel Sedin, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tobias Rieder, Claude Giroux, Matt Cullen, Mathew Barzal
    D: John Carlson, Mike Green, Ivan Provorov, Kevin Shattenkirk, Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie
    G: Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson

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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    I'd really not want Karlsson on Ottawa at that salary in that awful scoring system. I hate +/- as a category, and would recommend trading him for a non-defender. You have 2, and that's plenty to keep.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1-2 backup G's, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: Holtby
    Backup G: F Andersen
    D: Carlson, Niskanen, Orlov, Letang, Klingberg, Gostisbehere
    F1: Voracek, Giroux, Couturier
    TBD:
    F2: Wheeler, Schiefele
    F3: Benn, Seguin,
    F4: Stamkos, Point
    F5: Tavares, Bailey
    Spare: MacKinnon

    Bench:
    G: (none)
    D: M Reilly, Ekman-Larsson, Werenski
    F: JT Miller, Namestnikov, Guentzel, Pavelski, Killorn, Bjorkstrand, Tuch, Labanc, Nyquist, Sprong

    Reserve:
    Datsyuk

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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    I'd really not want Karlsson on Ottawa at that salary in that awful scoring system.
    No kidding, your system must be one of the few in existence that make Karlsson a crap asset, assuming I'm understanding it properly. You're saying that, in your league, Klingberg is sitting at 65 points (52 +13), Burns at 22 (49 -22), Hedman at 62 (38 + 24), and Karlsson is at.... 9? (38 -27)?!

    That's crazy, what a way to take an already underwhelming season and put a brutal exclamation mark on it!

    That said, last year he was good for 81 points, but if I'm buying, I'm probably not giving you much. I'm in the camp that says sit and wait, see where he ends up.
    H2H weekly lock, points only ( g: 1, a: 1, shg: 1, sha: 1, w: 2, so: 2 ), start 6 F, 3 D, 1 G. Keep 8

    Forwards: Kucherov, Matthews, B. Schenn, Radulov, Zibanejad, O'Reilly, Pacioretty, R. Strome, Puljujarvi
    Defence: Doughty, Letang, Klingberg, Hedman
    Goal: Andersen, Jones

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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    I'd really not want Karlsson on Ottawa at that salary in that awful scoring system. I hate +/- as a category, and would recommend trading him for a non-defender. You have 2, and that's plenty to keep.
    If you think the sens would have the same offensive system for nine more years, then I don’t know what to say. But it doesn’t matter what system he is in if he plays 100%

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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    The +/- makes for insane volatility in the scoring.. Can go from 90+pts for a defenseman (see 2011-12 season) or a cream of the crop D have 10pts (see this season). Question is, at 10M$+ for a D in a cap league where you can still assume that the average fantasy points will be around the average points the D will collect over several years... is it worth it?
    7 Keepers Salary Cap League (73M Cap)/ 18 Teams / 10 FW, 5 D, 2G, 2 Scratches.
    FW: 1pt = 1 FPt
    D: 1pt = 1 FPt & +/- = +or- 1 FPt
    G: (TOI*0.05/GAA)

    FW: Mitchell Marner, Nathan MacKinnon, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Connor McDavid, John Tavares, Daniel Sedin, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tobias Rieder, Claude Giroux, Matt Cullen, Mathew Barzal
    D: John Carlson, Mike Green, Ivan Provorov, Kevin Shattenkirk, Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie
    G: Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson

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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    Quote Originally Posted by reggiebarnes View Post
    If you think the sens would have the same offensive system for nine more years, then I don’t know what to say. But it doesn’t matter what system he is in if he plays 100%
    I get that you are a total Ottawa homer. but what you are missing is that it's not Ottawa's system, it's his league's system. There's just no way I want a monster contract on defense in that league, period. The plus-minus stat is so variable, there's no way to know what you have.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1-2 backup G's, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: Holtby
    Backup G: F Andersen
    D: Carlson, Niskanen, Orlov, Letang, Klingberg, Gostisbehere
    F1: Voracek, Giroux, Couturier
    TBD:
    F2: Wheeler, Schiefele
    F3: Benn, Seguin,
    F4: Stamkos, Point
    F5: Tavares, Bailey
    Spare: MacKinnon

    Bench:
    G: (none)
    D: M Reilly, Ekman-Larsson, Werenski
    F: JT Miller, Namestnikov, Guentzel, Pavelski, Killorn, Bjorkstrand, Tuch, Labanc, Nyquist, Sprong

    Reserve:
    Datsyuk

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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    I get that you are a total Ottawa homer. but what you are missing is that it's not Ottawa's system, it's his league's system. There's just no way I want a monster contract on defense in that league, period. The plus-minus stat is so variable, there's no way to know what you have.
    I misread your post. No need for you to be a dick and insult me.

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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    Quote Originally Posted by reggiebarnes View Post
    I misread your post. No need for you to be a dick and insult me.
    I don't think calling you a potential Ottawa homer really qualifies as a personal insult, more so perhaps a bit arrogant :P. Anyways, both your comments are valid. I was tilting towards stevegamer's view and thats why I asked the question.. The problem now is Karlsson is having a terrible year so his value is lower than it would be most years.
    7 Keepers Salary Cap League (73M Cap)/ 18 Teams / 10 FW, 5 D, 2G, 2 Scratches.
    FW: 1pt = 1 FPt
    D: 1pt = 1 FPt & +/- = +or- 1 FPt
    G: (TOI*0.05/GAA)

    FW: Mitchell Marner, Nathan MacKinnon, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Connor McDavid, John Tavares, Daniel Sedin, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tobias Rieder, Claude Giroux, Matt Cullen, Mathew Barzal
    D: John Carlson, Mike Green, Ivan Provorov, Kevin Shattenkirk, Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie
    G: Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson

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    Default Re: Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

    Quote Originally Posted by reggiebarnes View Post
    I misread your post. No need for you to be a dick and insult me.
    Sorry, didn't mean anything personal. You were taking it as about Ottawa, and it wasn't.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1-2 backup G's, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: Holtby
    Backup G: F Andersen
    D: Carlson, Niskanen, Orlov, Letang, Klingberg, Gostisbehere
    F1: Voracek, Giroux, Couturier
    TBD:
    F2: Wheeler, Schiefele
    F3: Benn, Seguin,
    F4: Stamkos, Point
    F5: Tavares, Bailey
    Spare: MacKinnon

    Bench:
    G: (none)
    D: M Reilly, Ekman-Larsson, Werenski
    F: JT Miller, Namestnikov, Guentzel, Pavelski, Killorn, Bjorkstrand, Tuch, Labanc, Nyquist, Sprong

    Reserve:
    Datsyuk

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