Karlsson @ 12M$ in a cap league. Worth it?

[gcefaloni]

Hi guys,

I know Erik Karlsson isn't resigning yet but if we assume that he would resign for around 12M$ per year for 8 years.
In a keeper cap league where only points and +/- count for defensemen and the cap ceiling follows the NHL cap ceiling, would you say he's worth keeping at that price or it would be better to trade him and get more for the money?
My league is wierd in the sense that +/- make up such an important factor in the point system, if a D does 3pts and is -3 one night, that would get him 0 fantasy points for the night; or 3pts +3 = 6FPs.

In that context, better trade Karlsson for another D or wait if he gets signed as a UFA for a better team that will make him a consistent positive +/- player and eat up his 12M$ cap hit then?

Looking forward to hearing your comments/analyses.

P.S. 18 teams, keep 7, forwards are points only. Ds are pts & +/-. Positions don't count other than FW, D, G. My current keepers are McDavid, Tarasenko, Marner, Granlund, Karlsson, Josi, Gostisbehere.

[PenguinHunter]

$12 million for 8 years would be a tough pill to swallow so, I would try shipping him out for Josi and some other assets.

Reasons

1) Josi is on such a cap friendly contract it would be a huge cost-saving.
2) You could get other critical assets.
3) The Josi owner might be concerned at how he is not the top fantasy D man there this year (Which I would not be concerned - both Josi and Subban will be good fantasy assets going forward)

[ericdaoust]

You can look for a trade but barring a good deal you can keep Karlsson for now and making it a year-to-year decision about whether or not to keep him or trade/drop him moving forward.

[gcefaloni]

$12 million for 8 years would be a tough pill to swallow so, I would try shipping him out for Josi and some other assets.

Reasons

1) Josi is on such a cap friendly contract it would be a huge cost-saving.
2) You could get other critical assets.
3) The Josi owner might be concerned at how he is not the top fantasy D man there this year (Which I would not be concerned - both Josi and Subban will be good fantasy assets going forward)

Problem is I am the owner of Josi , as you can see in my keepers list at the end of the thread. I have Josi and Ghost also. So I'd have to go find for someone else.

[stevegamer]

I'd really not want Karlsson on Ottawa at that salary in that awful scoring system. I hate +/- as a category, and would recommend trading him for a non-defender. You have 2, and that's plenty to keep.

[GavinC]

I'd really not want Karlsson on Ottawa at that salary in that awful scoring system.

No kidding, your system must be one of the few in existence that make Karlsson a crap asset, assuming I'm understanding it properly. You're saying that, in your league, Klingberg is sitting at 65 points (52 +13), Burns at 22 (49 -22), Hedman at 62 (38 + 24), and Karlsson is at.... 9? (38 -27)?!

That's crazy, what a way to take an already underwhelming season and put a brutal exclamation mark on it!

That said, last year he was good for 81 points, but if I'm buying, I'm probably not giving you much. I'm in the camp that says sit and wait, see where he ends up.

[reggiebarnes]

I'd really not want Karlsson on Ottawa at that salary in that awful scoring system. I hate +/- as a category, and would recommend trading him for a non-defender. You have 2, and that's plenty to keep.

If you think the sens would have the same offensive system for nine more years, then I don’t know what to say. But it doesn’t matter what system he is in if he plays 100%

[gcefaloni]

The +/- makes for insane volatility in the scoring.. Can go from 90+pts for a defenseman (see 2011-12 season) or a cream of the crop D have 10pts (see this season). Question is, at 10M$+ for a D in a cap league where you can still assume that the average fantasy points will be around the average points the D will collect over several years... is it worth it?

[stevegamer]

If you think the sens would have the same offensive system for nine more years, then I don’t know what to say. But it doesn’t matter what system he is in if he plays 100%

I get that you are a total Ottawa homer. but what you are missing is that it's not Ottawa's system, it's his league's system. There's just no way I want a monster contract on defense in that league, period. The plus-minus stat is so variable, there's no way to know what you have.

[reggiebarnes]

I get that you are a total Ottawa homer. but what you are missing is that it's not Ottawa's system, it's his league's system. There's just no way I want a monster contract on defense in that league, period. The plus-minus stat is so variable, there's no way to know what you have.

I misread your post. No need for you to be a dick and insult me.

[gcefaloni]

I misread your post. No need for you to be a dick and insult me.

I don't think calling you a potential Ottawa homer really qualifies as a personal insult, more so perhaps a bit arrogant :P. Anyways, both your comments are valid. I was tilting towards stevegamer's view and thats why I asked the question.. The problem now is Karlsson is having a terrible year so his value is lower than it would be most years.

[stevegamer]

I misread your post. No need for you to be a dick and insult me.

Sorry, didn't mean anything personal. You were taking it as about Ottawa, and it wasn't.