Keller Moving Forward - I'll Rep

[LeafsFan1967]

Does he have a similar upside to Kuznetsov? I used to own Kuzy, but traded him this year. Barzal is another high end young guy, who came into the NHL as more of a playmaker, but is potting goals too. Keller is on pace for 26 goals. My format lends itself more to goals, so I think I'm in good shape with who I have now, but obviously looking at a deal to potentially get Keller where I move Hall (who I only have through next year).

The add in piece to the deal is Trocheck, who is basically just going to help me for this year. How will Hall compare to Trocheck/Keller for ROS, and how will Keller/Hall compare next year, and does Keller have the potential to get to Hall's level in the next 3 seasons after this?

Packing a lot of questions in, but just thinking it would be a good time to do this. There is a potential pick upgrade too, minor but basically I would give him 1 of my sixths (Pick 75) for his fifth (Pick 59), as of this moment. I pushed for just a pick on it's own, or a bigger upgrade, but no dice.

Then my keepers will be: Boeser (4), Wheeler (3), Benn (2), Patches (1) and Keller (rookie-carry-over). I could swap Keller and Boeser, but a bit too early to think about that. I have Dubois in my rookie slot currently, but he, Guentzel and Trocheck would be guys I'll look to move after the season for some picks (if possible).

[LeafsFan1967]

Feedback anyone? Kept this one pretty short

[lucafen4]

if you can move Hall for both Troch & Keller - that's a must do. You might then want to consider Trochek over Patches as a keep as well. Keller, in 3yrs will be at or above Hall's level. IMO.

[LeafsFan1967]

if you can move Hall for both Troch & Keller - that's a must do. You might then want to consider Trochek over Patches as a keep as well. Keller, in 3yrs will be at or above Hall's level. IMO.

Why do you say it's a must do, would you say it would help or hurt my team for ROS? Also, how much gap do you see between Hall/Keller for next season? I'll have Horvat coming off of IR soon enough, but Trocheck is obviously a must start, so it moves my weakest starter to the bench. So say Horvat were healthy now, I would bench him and start Trocheck. If I do this trade before Horvat is back, I'll plug Trocheck in at centre, and Keller at lw where Hall was. I think Guentzel, Zuc and Horvat are all pretty similar, so if I get Troch/Keller, I'll ride whoever is hot between the former. I've been using Zuc at skater for most of the season. If I do this deal, I'll also drop Perry.

I had never really thought of Trocheck as a keeper, and Patches is under contract for next year. There is a buy out penalty of 50$ per year, so I'm not at the point where I've though he'll be a buyout candidate in the off-season. I've thought about what he might fetch in a trade, but I just got him back this year (had owned him before), and like Wheeler, his value to me is probably more than I would fetch for him via trade. Those 2 aren't sexy names, they've always been underrated in my league. I think this deal would be good for me, even if I don't keep Trocheck, because I could try to flip him in the off-season for a pick. If Patches fetched a better return, would consider moving him and keeping Trocheck, but as of this moment, Patches is still in my plans. Guys like Troch (assuming I do deal), Guentzel and Dubois will hopefully fetch me something in off-season.

[lucafen4]

Why do you say it's a must do, would you say it would help or hurt my team for ROS? I'll have Horvat coming off of IR soon enough, but Trocheck is obviously a better guy to start. I have flexibility with my skater slot, where I can play Zuc or Horvat or even Guentzel if he gets going, but they are all depth guys. I had never though of Trocheck as a keeper, do you believe in him that much? Patches is on a 4 game goal scoring streak, plus he's under contract for 1 more year. I think Trocheck will be a good trade chip, but Patches might fetch better based on his track record, so could also go that route, but as of right now Patches fits in my plans. I don't think whether I keep Trocheck or not should influence whether I do this deal or not. If I lose Trocheck for nothing, or say pick up a pick for him, and we compare Keller vs Hall going into next year, how much gap do you see in their point output?

Troch is a massive upgrade on either Guentzel or Zuccarello for you. Keller is a downgrade on Hall, but still better than Guentz or Zucc. That 2-1 makes your team overall stronger rest of season. Just take a look at Troch's point totals in your league over the past three years vs. Patches. He's way ahead this year, and I think his totals will likely surprise over the last two, being a bit closer to Patches than you're originally thinking. 41 in 43 this year, def. on pace for 70+.

I don't see a gap in Keller - Hall' production next year - Breadman would likely agree, others will not.

[LeafsFan1967]

Troch is a massive upgrade on either Guentzel or Zuccarello for you. Keller is a downgrade on Hall, but still better than Guentz or Zucc. That 2-1 makes your team overall stronger rest of season. Just take a look at Troch's point totals in your league over the past three years vs. Patches. He's way ahead this year, and I think his totals will likely surprise over the last two, being a bit closer to Patches than you're originally thinking. 41 in 43 this year, def. on pace for 70+.

I don't see a gap in Keller - Hall' production next year - Breadman would likely agree, others will not.

Yeah, I have to say I'm disappointed in Guentzel. I took a chance on him when I grabbed him with Benn, figuring he would replace some of the goals I lost, but he's become a bench guy (for the moment at least). I think he'll return to relevance, but lack of pp time hurts him, plus his struggles to produce with Crosby.

Quick Comparison:

2015-2016: Troch (154 FPts, 2.03 fp/g), Patches (176.5 FPts, 2.15 fp/g).
2016-2017: Troch (139.5 FPts, 1.70 fp/g), Patches (201 FPts, 2.48 fp/g).

So I didn't realize they had been so close before, but for last year, Patches was quite a bit better.

2017-2018: Troch (114.5 FPts, 2.66 fp/g), Patches (68.5 FPts, 1.56 fp/g).

Trocheck is getting 21:40 total, 3:32 pp and 2:04 short handed this season (all personal highs).

In 15/16, he was 17:46, 2:40 and 0:47.

In 16/17, he was 20:49, 2:43 and 1:55.

It's interesting that he had better fantasy numbers in 15/16 than 16/17, even though he's getting over 3 minutes more total ice time, and over a minute more on the pk. The difference I see this year is that his he's got a bigger pp role, vs only a 3 second increase between 15/16 and 16/17, vs 52 second increase from 16/17 to 17/18, and he's already at 12 pp points (his career high is 13 in 15/16). It's way too soon to say who my 4th keeper will be, but as of this moment it's still Patches, but that could change.

I would love Breadman to chime in on Keller. You said in 3 yrs, Keller will be at or above Hall's level, so I guess I read that as it will take him that length of time to at least reach Hall's level, but I guess you are saying at worst, he'll be at Hall's level already, and could be better, like it sounds like next season you think Keller will be a beast?

Hall is on pace for 88 pts in 80 games, Keller is on pace for 62 in 82 (60 pt pace for 80 games), but his -20 is a drag since you lose 0.5 pts per - (not saying it's the most important stat, but still pulls fp/g down).

Also, does my format influence your opinion regarding liking the deal, or had you already considered that?

[LeafsFan1967]

And would me not keeping Trocheck influence your thoughts on the trade at all, or is Keller for Hall still a good coupe, and Troch is a nice bonus either way, considering he'll help me this year? I mean at worst, I drop him, go into next year with Keller instead of Hall, or ideally move him or Patches for pick(s), and keep the guy I don't move as my 4th keeper. I guess I just believe in Patches still, plus he's lw and Trocheck is a centre, so there is merit to having all wingers as keepers, unless you have an elite level centre. I guess I shouldn't be thinking too far ahead, if I do the deal, I see how ROS goes, then re-assess in off-season and see where I'm at.