Carter Hart

[Chunkys_Choice]

I just took a flyer on Carter Hart - can stash him on my farm team and see what happens. Maybe i'll try and flip him for draft picks after the world juniors, or maybe hold him. How many years do my fellow Dobberites think it will take before he becomes the Flyers' #1 goalie? 2019-20 when Elliott and Neuvirth are both UFA? Later? Sooner? Never?

[Axeman33]

Four to five years at best, assuming he gets there at all.

[The Black Panther]

Then there's Stolarez & Sandstrom who will have say.
I honestly think flyers will finally get fed up with the patchwork job and go out and get a young NHL ready goalie.

[lucafen4]

Then there's Stolarez & Sandstrom who will have say.
I honestly think flyers will finally get fed up with the patchwork job and go out and get a young NHL ready goalie.

Im expecting hart to blow past all of them. As soon as he shows ready, he’ll get a shot

[Magicstew]

Four to five years at best, assuming he gets there at all.

I can wait in my one league where my tending has been awful for the last 2 years.

[lucafen4]

I can wait in my one league where my tending has been awful for the last 2 years.

does this mean you're goaltending is going to suck for the next 4-5 years as well.. I hope you fix it way way before then... and then when Hart comes in - you're stacked

[Axeman33]

I can wait in my one league where my tending has been awful for the last 2 years.

If your goaltending is bad, Hart is not the answer to your issues any time soon.

[J0e Th0rnton]

Philly never rushes goaltending and Hextall seems more patient than his predecessors at grooming Defensemen too.

Hart is years away unless he gets traded to a team that will have multiple injuries and give him a chance.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Hart is one of the best goalie prospects in the game but as others have said, it will likely take 4-5 years or possibly even more than that.

You could try using Hart after the WJC to acquire a proven starter like maybe Schneider or someone like that who is over 30 (old!) but still has a few great years left.

[SergeP]

Hart is one of the best goalie prospects in the game but as others have said, it will likely take 4-5 years or possibly even more than that.

You could try using Hart after the WJC to acquire a proven starter like maybe Schneider or someone like that who is over 30 (old!) but still has a few great years left.

Staying in this vein, you could also try to move Hart after the WJC for another prospect goalie who is closer to the NHL like Shesterkin, Gillies, Demko, etc. That could chop 2-3 years off your wait.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Staying in this vein, you could also try to move Hart after the WJC for another prospect goalie who is closer to the NHL like Shesterkin, Gillies, Demko, etc. That could chop 2-3 years off your wait.

That's a very risky play. What if Shestyorkin never leaves Russia? Or Gillies never becomes a good NHL goalie? If Hart then becomes a stud goalie, then you're going to hate yourself for making that trade. I doubt anyone would even consider moving Demko for Hart.

Goalie prospects are such voodoo, I would never really want to trade a prospect goalie for another prospect goalie unless I was clearly getting the better prospect somehow (usually, that's impossible and you only get a similar prospect in return). But maybe that's just me.

[stevegamer]

That's a very risky play. What if Shestyorkin never leaves Russia? Or Gillies never becomes a good NHL goalie? If Hart then becomes a stud goalie, then you're going to hate yourself for making that trade. I doubt anyone would even consider moving Demko for Hart.

Goalie prospects are such voodoo, I would never really want to trade a prospect goalie for another prospect goalie unless I was clearly getting the better prospect somehow (usually, that's impossible and you only get a similar prospect in return). But maybe that's just me.

If you think all goalie prospects are voodoo, you always want to make the deal for the goalie closer to the NHL.

Assumption 1: All goalie prospects are voodoo, and I have no idea how they will turn out.
Assumption 2: You have limited roster space, and each prospect takes up 1 space.
Assumption 3: Goalie Prospect Joe Blow is X years away from making the NHL. Goalie Prospect John Doe is Y years away from the NHL.
Assumption 4: You have N roster spaces allocated to goalie prospects, and N > 0. (I realize this isn't a fixed number, but at any moment you will have some number, and we'll use that).

If X = Y, it doesn't matter. Goalies have same estimated arrival date. If X < Y, then you will know what you have in Joe Blow sooner. The opposite is also true.

N goalies 2 years away take 2N roster space years to develop. N goalies 4 years away take 4N roster space years to develop. This means you can then gain 2N roster space years by simply dealing the 4 year golaies for the 2 year goalies. This you give the ability to roster different prospects in those spaces for those years, so you get more shots at getting productive players.

[stevegamer]

I just took a flyer on Carter Hart - can stash him on my farm team and see what happens. Maybe i'll try and flip him for draft picks after the world juniors, or maybe hold him. How many years do my fellow Dobberites think it will take before he becomes the Flyers' #1 goalie? 2019-20 when Elliott and Neuvirth are both UFA? Later? Sooner? Never?

My take on the Flyers plan is that Stolarz & Lyon are the short term guys with a chance to grab the backup job starting next year. Stolarz is hurt, Lyon is playing not well enough at Lehigh Valley to be taken seriously as a NHL starter right now. There are no prospect goalies at Reading right now. That leaves Hart, Sandstrom, and everyone else they've drafted who is overseas, in college or in juniors.

It's very much up in the air who is the next guy to get a shot at being the starter. Elliott seems like he has the job well in hand, but Stolarz getting healthy would be a challenge. Neuvirth won't ever be consitently healthy enough to be the guy, I don't think.

2019-20 is the soonest I could see Hart have a shot, but I'd put 2020-21 as much more likely. I'd definitely be willing to flip him after the WJC for skaters or goalies with less wait time.

[Jouko-Pouko]

If you think all goalie prospects are voodoo, you always want to make the deal for the goalie closer to the NHL.

Assumption 1: All goalie prospects are voodoo, and I have no idea how they will turn out.
Assumption 2: You have limited roster space, and each prospect takes up 1 space.
Assumption 3: Goalie Prospect Joe Blow is X years away from making the NHL. Goalie Prospect John Doe is Y years away from the NHL.
Assumption 4: You have N roster spaces allocated to goalie prospects, and N > 0. (I realize this isn't a fixed number, but at any moment you will have some number, and we'll use that).

If X = Y, it doesn't matter. Goalies have same estimated arrival date. If X < Y, then you will know what you have in Joe Blow sooner. The opposite is also true.

N goalies 2 years away take 2N roster space years to develop. N goalies 4 years away take 4N roster space years to develop. This means you can then gain 2N roster space years by simply dealing the 4 year golaies for the 2 year goalies. This you give the ability to roster different prospects in those spaces for those years, so you get more shots at getting productive players.

The problem is that you never know how many years away exactly each goalie prospect is. Shestyorkin might be NHL ready already now but how many years does he spend in Russia? There's a chance Hart actually plays in the NHL before Shestyorkin does. If we had exact information about them all, then yes, I would agree with you. But we just don't have that kind of information.

But my main point was that it's better to acquire a proven starter instead. Many GMs consider 30+ players to be too old for them, so you might be able to acquire one of them with a top goalie prospect like Hart.

[stevegamer]

The problem is that you never know how many years away exactly each goalie prospect is. Shestyorkin might be NHL ready already now but how many years does he spend in Russia? There's a chance Hart actually plays in the NHL before Shestyorkin does. If we had exact information about them all, then yes, I would agree with you. But we just don't have that kind of information.

But my main point was that it's better to acquire a proven starter instead. Many GMs consider 30+ players to be too old for them, so you might be able to acquire one of them with a top goalie prospect like Hart.

I can see that point. My take was more about 18 year old in juniors versus AHL starter nearly ready sort of decision making. You don;t know number of years, but it's rare somebody just comes up at 20 or younger and does anything. However if they do, they are likely a really really good goalie.