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Thread: Tolvanen

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Quote Originally Posted by Belexus75 View Post
    actually sometimes it does, he was in conversation for top 3 pick just a year ago...somehow slipped very far so his stock did change the other way in few months, now its claiming back...i said it few times before and it was way before this run that imo he has a chance to be the best offensive player in his draft class.
    Highly unlikely. It's a big red flag if you get drafted 30th after being talked about being a top 5 pick. Not many players like that succeed. Look at hunter shinkaruk. Very comparable

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Quote Originally Posted by reggiebarnes View Post
    Highly unlikely. It's a big red flag if you get drafted 30th after being talked about being a top 5 pick. Not many players like that succeed. Look at hunter shinkaruk. Very comparable
    Actually, it isn't a big red flag. Did you read the linked article in the OP?

    Also, his style is nothing like Shinkaruk's so there is no comparable there at all.
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    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    Actually, it isn't a big red flag. Did you read the linked article in the OP?

    Also, his style is nothing like Shinkaruk's so there is no comparable there at all.
    Ye,s it is a big red flag. The reasons people brought up for why he fell aren't important. Executives simply believed he wasn't highly projectable to the NHL. Hunter shunkaruk was known as a sniper and was supposed to be a top pick. After he was drafpeople went on and on about how he was a steal and every goal he scored was hyped. Now he's a nobody. Just one example, doesn't mean that's gonna happen here . We're years away from seeing what happens to tolvanen

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    Quote Originally Posted by Belexus75 View Post
    actually sometimes it does, he was in conversation for top 3 pick just a year ago...somehow slipped very far so his stock did change the other way in few months, now its claiming back...i said it few times before and it was way before this run that imo he has a chance to be the best offensive player in his draft class.
    I'd love to hear from actual NHL GMs/scouts to see how many of them feel his stock is rising after he slipped at the draft. Just because it's climbing around these parts for fantasy reasons doesn't always mean NHL GMs/scouts have changed their tune on him. I doubt we will ever know that answer but it would be fun to know none the less.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    I'd love to hear from actual NHL GMs/scouts to see how many of them feel his stock is rising after he slipped at the draft. Just because it's climbing around these parts for fantasy reasons doesn't always mean NHL GMs/scouts have changed their tune on him. I doubt we will ever know that answer but it would be fun to know none the less.
    What Tolvanen is doing in the KHL is unprecedented for an 18-year old. I don't see how NHL scouts and GMs could not have taken notice. And you need to watch him play to understand he's not a one-trick pony (I've just seen highlights of his goals and assists) but I've read many impressive reports of his play.

    As we know, prospect development isn't linear. Tolvanen seems to have switched several gears up in a matter of months. There are plenty of examples of top players dropping in drafts for one reason or another. Pastrnak went 24th a few years ago, Kucherov wasn't picked till the 2nd round, just to give a couple of examples.
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    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    What Tolvanen is doing in the KHL is unprecedented for an 18-year old. I don't see how NHL scouts and GMs could not have taken notice. And you need to watch him play to understand he's not a one-trick pony (I've just seen highlights of his goals and assists) but I've read many impressive reports of his play.

    As we know, prospect development isn't linear. Tolvanen seems to have switched several gears up in a matter of months. There are plenty of examples of top players dropping in drafts for one reason or another. Pastrnak went 24th a few years ago, Kucherov wasn't picked till the 2nd round, just to give a couple of examples.
    For all we know, GMs weren't passing on him because they didn't like his skills. It could have been something else that led them to say "no thanks". Don't get me wrong, I was quite high on the kid pre-draft as well. Top 15 for me for sure but once he slipped in the draft, it was enough for me to take my hands off the excitement wheel and let him go to someone else. I don't doubt he's a skilled player but there was something that scared a lot of GMs from spending a top pick on him.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    For all we know, GMs weren't passing on him because they didn't like his skills. It could have been something else that led them to say "no thanks". Don't get me wrong, I was quite high on the kid pre-draft as well. Top 15 for me for sure but once he slipped in the draft, it was enough for me to take my hands off the excitement wheel and let him go to someone else. I don't doubt he's a skilled player but there was something that scared a lot of GMs from spending a top pick on him.
    Nashville had him in their top 10. Not sure about other lists but it's possible there was somebody else other GMs liked a little better every time. I don't care at this point. As I said, to me he is a low cost acquisition and I have definitely taken notice of his KHL performance. Now it's wait and see. If he continues his current level of play, he will be almost certainly an impact NHLer.
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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    I'm thrilled I didn't realize he wasn't taken in our rookie draft. Took Lias Andersson and the guy 3 picks later (pick 19 I think) took him. F sakes. That's what I get for drafting over the phone!
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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Quote Originally Posted by reggiebarnes View Post
    Ye,s it is a big red flag. The reasons people brought up for why he fell aren't important. Executives simply believed he wasn't highly projectable to the NHL. Hunter shunkaruk was known as a sniper and was supposed to be a top pick. After he was drafpeople went on and on about how he was a steal and every goal he scored was hyped. Now he's a nobody. Just one example, doesn't mean that's gonna happen here . We're years away from seeing what happens to tolvanen
    you can treat it as a red flag and not draft him, your opinion, your choice. Fact is he is doing something that not many done before against grown men. Could he be a bust still? yeah he could but at this point its more likely he will be at least a good 2nd line winger.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Belexus75 View Post
    actually sometimes it does, he was in conversation for top 3 pick just a year ago...somehow slipped very far so his stock did change the other way in few months, now its claiming back...i said it few times before and it was way before this run that imo he has a chance to be the best offensive player in his draft class.
    He was #5 on McKenzie's preseason list a year ago, not sure which list had him in their top-3 discussion.

    But one thing people seem to be forgetting - only 3 pure wingers were drafted before Tolvanen. NHL teams just don't value wingers all that highly because they're not as important to team success as centers and D-men. Sure, Tolvanen would probably go a bit higher if the draft was re-done today - but would he still go in the top-10? Tippett was the only winger drafted there and he's starting the season in the NHL. Would the Panthers rather have Tolvanen right now? I'm not so sure.

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    He was #5 on McKenzie's preseason list a year ago, not sure which list had him in their top-3 discussion.

    But one thing people seem to be forgetting - only 3 pure wingers were drafted before Tolvanen. NHL teams just don't value wingers all that highly because they're not as important to team success as centers and D-men. Sure, Tolvanen would probably go a bit higher if the draft was re-done today - but would he still go in the top-10? Tippett was the only winger drafted there and he's starting the season in the NHL. Would the Panthers rather have Tolvanen right now? I'm not so sure.
    I'm quite sure they would not. Again, tolvanen doesn't go top 5 after three months, and not even 15 games of action...people need to seriously chill.

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    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    What Tolvanen is doing in the KHL is unprecedented for an 18-year old. I don't see how NHL scouts and GMs could not have taken notice. And you need to watch him play to understand he's not a one-trick pony (I've just seen highlights of his goals and assists) but I've read many impressive reports of his play.

    As we know, prospect development isn't linear. Tolvanen seems to have switched several gears up in a matter of months. There are plenty of examples of top players dropping in drafts for one reason or another. Pastrnak went 24th a few years ago, Kucherov wasn't picked till the 2nd round, just to give a couple of examples.
    Kucherov isn't a good example, he fell because of the khl factor

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Not getting into BC was the flag, a lot of GMs don't want to roll the dice with their high or mid first round pick. He didn't know what he was going to do and that was the turn off, also the incomplete two way game. Now I said this in another thread, the kid is an absolute sniper and can pick corners with the best of them. I targeted him with my 2nd round picks in every draft and got him 2 of 3. Needless to say I'm extremely happy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bazz View Post
    Not getting into BC was the flag, a lot of GMs don't want to roll the dice with their high or mid first round pick. He didn't know what he was going to do and that was the turn off, also the incomplete two way game. Now I said this in another thread, the kid is an absolute sniper and can pick corners with the best of them. I targeted him with my 2nd round picks in every draft and got him 2 of 3. Needless to say I'm extremely happy.
    How many 17 or 18-year olds have complete two way games? Not many. Probably the first reason you listed had a higher weight. Again, it could be a freak accident of how teams had their rankings. If Nashville had a higher pick, he would have been taken earlier as Nashville had him in their top 10. Anyway, I really think his drop is being over-emphasized at this point. It's what he's doing after the draft that is noteworthy.
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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    How many 17 or 18-year olds have complete two way games? Not many. Probably the first reason you listed had a higher weight. Again, it could be a freak accident of how teams had their rankings. If Nashville had a higher pick, he would have been taken earlier as Nashville had him in their top 10. Anyway, I really think his drop is being over-emphasized at this point. It's what he's doing after the draft that is noteworthy.
    I agree that's why I listed it first, I think it's amazing what he's doing and he will come in to an organization to a top 6 roll IMO. The argument of "Let's see what happens when he comes over" etc is invalid to me. If you look at the top 10 in the KHL so far, 8/10 have had success in NHL/AHL. One doesn't have a big enough sample size to me. To me he's a 30+30 guy.
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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Analysts were talking about him at length during the draft as he was falling. The reason they were citing is that he's apparently got attitude issues, is extremely cocky and is not a team player. Of course you can't believe everything you hear but it is food for thought.

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