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Thread: Tolvanen

  1. #1
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    Default Tolvanen

    16 points in 13 KHL games, tied with Kovalchuk in GPG/PPG, rookie of the month for both August and September, averaging 4.5 shots per game yet playing less than 16 minutes a game.

    Nashville had him in their top 10 and were shocked when he was available at 30. Apparently other lists had him in the top 20. I guess it was a pure fluke he dropped so much. What he is doing in the 2nd best league in the world is very noteworthy. I think he's a great buy now before his stock skyrockets.

    He is on a 2-year contract with a player option to opt out after the first year so he can come over to NA if he is ready next year.

    From linked article:
    Does Kurri[Jari] think Tolvanen has the tools to be a bonafide NHL player?“Oh, no question,” he said without hesitation. “I think he’ll get better and he’ll get good experience in these type of games. The KHL has very hard games night after night where he needs to get better and better. That will make him a better player in the future.”
    The moral of the story is Nashville has an offensive weapon in their system for the first time since probably Alexander Radulov in 2004. But they got Radulov in the middle of the first round so, while hindsight may be 20/20, how in the world did Tolvanen fall to the Predators at number 30?
    “I didn’t know on draft day and I’m still not sure,” Kealty admitted. “But I’m sure glad he did.”
    http://www.thegamenashville.com/2017...eeli-tolvanen/
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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    yup...he is a stud imo

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    If I recall correctly at his time last year he was in the same conversation as Patrick. Not sure what put the scouts off but that’s what many of us go by.

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Stuuuuuuuuuuuuddddddd.

    Gonnna make so many NHL GMs just look dumb (and many fantasy GMs, who subscribe to the GMs must know something we don’t theory)

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    The Great One

    Default Re: Tolvanen

    People getting way to excited over 13 games.

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Meh, lots of people light up the KHL and come to the NHL and do diddly.

    I'll get excited when he does it in the NHL.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

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    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    Meh, lots of people light up the KHL and come to the NHL and do diddly.

    I'll get excited when he does it in the NHL.
    Sure, that is the conservative approach but you might be excited watching him kill it for another GM. He's a high reward, low risk gamble. It probably won't cost much to acquire him now and if he doesn't pan out, drop him. Incidentally, what he is doing as an 18-year old in the KHL is mighty impressive. Just compare his numbers to other notable Russian players at the same age and he is in an elite company.
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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    Sure, that is the conservative approach but you might be excited watching him kill it for another GM. He's a high reward, low risk gamble. It probably won't cost much to acquire him now and if he doesn't pan out, drop him. Incidentally, what he is doing as an 18-year old in the KHL is mighty impressive. Just compare his numbers to other notable Russian players at the same age and he is in an elite company.
    I'm fine with that. I watch lots of kids kill it for other GMs; you can't own them all. If he's killing it in the KHL (like Kaprizov did last year as a kid), I doubt his price to acquire would be cheap anyway. I am not willing to take the chance and if that means watching him kill it for someone else, that's fine with me. If it's going to cost me quality assets, it will be for a kid killing it over here, not in the KHL. There's plenty of those fish to chase.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Very few players light up the KHL at 18. It's definitely an outlier to do it, and from a pure numbers standpoint what Tolvanen is doing is jaw-dropping.

    Player GP P
    Tarasenko 42 34
    Kuznetsov 44 32
    Malkin 52 32
    Kaprizov (2 years ago, not last year) 42 27
    Ovechkin 53 23
    Buchnevich 40 18
    Tolvanen 13 16
    Panarin 20 9

    Generally, only exceptional players have even suited up in the KHL at age 18, let alone produced well... and Tolvanen's also doing it with less than 16 minutes of ice a game.

    A couple key point slow the hype train though: Tolvanen in playing for Jokerit, which recently joined the KHL after previously being part of the Finnish SM-Liiga. Historically, Finnish teams have shown themselves more willing to give responsibility to young players than Russian teams, which have tended to stick with a "pay your dues" approach - not sure if this is a culture thing, or what, but it's a fair observation. So Ovechkin and Malkin might have greatly outproduced had they been given the opportunity (who knows!) that their pure skill didn't afford them. Likewise more recently with Kuznetsov and Tarasenko, though the reigns have come off younger players in the KHL in recent years just as they have in the NHL.

    All the same, the experience in producing at an elite clip in a pro men's league at 18 is something to be seriously noted. As VV says here, he's still being valued as a mid 1st-round guy, and he's quickly demonstrating that the upside is considerably above that. There is bigtime potential for a re-rating coming at the WJC, so as an asset that should be relatively cheap to purchase now, there is a big opportunity to take profits in January/

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    Generally, only exceptional players have even suited up in the KHL at age 18, let alone produced well... and Tolvanen's also doing it with less than 16 minutes of ice a game.

    A couple key point slow the hype train though: Tolvanen in playing for Jokerit, which recently joined the KHL after previously being part of the Finnish SM-Liiga. Historically, Finnish teams have shown themselves more willing to give responsibility to young players than Russian teams, which have tended to stick with a "pay your dues" approach - not sure if this is a culture thing, or what, but it's a fair observation. So Ovechkin and Malkin might have greatly outproduced had they been given the opportunity (who knows!) that their pure skill didn't afford them. Likewise more recently with Kuznetsov and Tarasenko, though the reigns have come off younger players in the KHL in recent years just as they have in the NHL.

    All the same, the experience in producing at an elite clip in a pro men's league at 18 is something to be seriously noted. As VV says here, he's still being valued as a mid 1st-round guy, and he's quickly demonstrating that the upside is considerably above that. There is bigtime potential for a re-rating coming at the WJC, so as an asset that should be relatively cheap to purchase now, there is a big opportunity to take profits in January/
    This is exactly the point I was going to make. Tolvanen's numbers look amazing when compared to other players his age but other players his age have never received 2nd line / 2nd PP usage from Day 1. Russian 18-year-old players usually get 5 minutes per game or something like that, no matter how good they actually are (or would be if given the chance).

    I've seen almost all of Tolvanen's games in the KHL, and yes I'm impressed with him but I'm still not seeing anything that makes me think he has 70+ point upside. I liked him for 60-65 point upside in the summer and that's still where I have him. But his NHL certainty has definitely improved because of how well he has adjusted to the KHL level. But what's also important to remember is that the KHL is not a very physical league, so smaller kids like him can do better there than what they most likely would do in the AHL.

    Jokerit have done a great job building up Tolvanen's confidence which is obviously very high right now because it seems like everything he tries to do is successful - what I'm still wondering is what happens when he hits the rookie wall and things don't go perfectly for him anymore. Will he go into a long slump or is he able to get out of that quickly? Often times that's the difference between a 60 point player and a 70 point player (in the NHL I mean).

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Another goal and assist for Tolvanen today - now at 18 points in 14 games.
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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Literally unprecedented results from someone his age. His shot generation is insane too.

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    Literally unprecedented results from someone his age. His shot generation is insane too.
    Yes. He does need to improve his play along the boards, which is pretty bad at the moment and may be his biggest obstacle to getting to the NHL.
    I can't promise I'll try but I'll try to try.

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    IMO we will need to see him in AHL to properly evaluate him. From what I've seen his skating and two way game isn't the greatest which isn't an issue in Europe but will be in NHL. Lots of his goals wouldn't happen in NHL with no time and space. He's being overrated at the moment because somebody's stock doesn't change that much in the months. Deniftely a low risk buy most likely, but a lot of players like this who are considered steals after being drafted end up busting

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    Default Re: Tolvanen

    Quote Originally Posted by reggiebarnes View Post
    IMO we will need to see him in AHL to properly evaluate him. From what I've seen his skating and two way game isn't the greatest which isn't an issue in Europe but will be in NHL. Lots of his goals wouldn't happen in NHL with no time and space. He's being overrated at the moment because somebody's stock doesn't change that much in the months. Deniftely a low risk buy most likely, but a lot of players like this who are considered steals after being drafted end up busting
    actually sometimes it does, he was in conversation for top 3 pick just a year ago...somehow slipped very far so his stock did change the other way in few months, now its claiming back...i said it few times before and it was way before this run that imo he has a chance to be the best offensive player in his draft class.

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