2017/18 DobberHockey Tiered Invitational: Draft Summary

[horrorfan]

I've taken all seven leagues' draft results and summarised them into one table. I thought it would be interesting to compare the results of each league to see how people look at certain players and how much their perceived value differs amongst each other. It's also useful to see how managers draft specific positions, if there are runs etc.

Here are the key settings:

Yahoo, One-year, Rotisserie
Daily lineups, Weekly FAAB w/ Continual rolling list tiebreak
No maximum moves/trades, Same day processing
Max games per positional slot = 82
G,A,+/-,PPP,SOG,Hits,W,GAA,SV
4C,4L,4R,6D,2G,5BN,2IR,1IR+

The table includes the following information:

- Average draft position between all leagues
- Minimum, maximum and its range.
- Individual draft results for all seven leagues

A few notes and observations:

- Positions are based on Yahoo eligibility when I exported the results
- I've included players who were drafted in at least five of the seven leagues (note: added a N/D for those not drafted)
- Some outliers (e.g. Boeser) could be due to a faulty Internet connection during the draft
- I've highlighted players by position (forward, defense, goalie).
- Added a note at the top of the table regarding the Stanley results. Shouldn't make too much a difference.

Please add your own observations so we can get a good discussion going!

EDIT: I've also added it as a PDF in case you want to search for names.

[LordoftheRinks]

Brandon - nice job pulling this together. I'm going to spend the next hour over several cups of coffee perusing this list instead of the NYT!

[Eskimo Brother]

Great looking list
Thanks for spending all that time!

[horrorfan]

Brandon - nice job pulling this together. I'm going to spend the next hour over several cups of coffee perusing this list instead of the NYT!

Thanks. I hope it was a useful read with your coffee!

Great looking list
Thanks for spending all that time!

Thanks and no problem!

[PenguinHunter]

This is great horrorfan! Gonna spend a lot of time looking at this.

[4T2]

Awesome man! Thanks for putting this together. Had a quick peak this morning and plan to look at it in depth over the next couple days

[forumname]

Great stuff. Any chance you could share it in a format that's searchable? I'm curious about a few guys but it sucks to scan the list looking for each of them.

[ChilePuck]

Wow, Lucic drafted 147th in the Norris... in this format that's unbelievable...

[audiopile]

Vatanen and Montour averaging next to each other is very interesting. Feeling pretty good about my N Ritchie pick at 274 seeing that he went at 170 in the Stanley.

[horrorfan]

Great stuff. Any chance you could share it in a format that's searchable? I'm curious about a few guys but it sucks to scan the list looking for each of them.

I've added it as a PDF attachment, which is searchable.

[Pit Bulls]

This list is awesome horrorfan - thanks for taking the time to pull all this information together!

One thing to keep in mind - using Yahoo! as the host platform for the drafts dictates when a player will be picked (at times).

What I mean is - if Player A is listed as a C/RW and you have already filled out all your C positions but wanted to draft him as a RW - he would go to your bench as Yahoo! slots the players into the positions listed first. At times, we may have drafted a player more for position than talent to round out our rosters.

Having said that, at first glance, it seems like most of the leagues are fairly consistent in their drafting - which goes to show how competitive these leagues will be.

Thanks again horrorfan for putting the list together.

[horrorfan]

This list is awesome horrorfan - thanks for taking the time to pull all this information together!

One thing to keep in mind - using Yahoo! as the host platform for the drafts dictates when a player will be picked (at times).

What I mean is - if Player A is listed as a C/RW and you have already filled out all your C positions but wanted to draft him as a RW - he would go to your bench as Yahoo! slots the players into the positions listed first. At times, we may have drafted a player more for position than talent to round out our rosters.

Having said that, at first glance, it seems like most of the leagues are fairly consistent in their drafting - which goes to show how competitive these leagues will be.

Thanks again horrorfan for putting the list together.

No problem, thanks.

About the Yahoo drafting by position, would that matter if they place a player on the bench? You could just adjust your roster post-draft. Of course, some might draft it differently like you said but I suspect most people would just draft knowing the C/RW player would be a RW regardless of where Yahoo placed them. Well, those are my thoughts anyway.

[evans334]

Brock Boeser eh.

Good stuff here!

[horrorfan]

Brock Boeser eh.

Good stuff here!

I think that was an Internet glitch.

Thanks!

[Pengwin7]

Love this work. Great thread.
I think these kinds of things are really valuable towards one-year fantasy leagues.
I've always considered that fantasy hockey breaks down into three portions: the draft (50%), in-season management (30%), and luck (20%).
But the draft is so critically important to a team that studying it, and knowing what to expect before it comes, plays a bit role.

There are so many fun topics to discuss:

1. Brayden Schenn. The list goes to show that there is at least ONE person, per league, that is buying the 70pt Schenn Dobber-prediction (or using FHG which comes with that embedded). Everywhere else I've seen has Schenn for 50-55pts. I simply don't think a team can go and spend a 3rd round pick on 70pt expectation from a guy who might be thrust into a new position on a new team. But - it's great to see as a pure example of how people will draft: by somebody else's predictions.

2. Joe Pavelski. He's all over the map by pick, probably the highest spread of a top player, but his ADP works out to roughly where I value him 25-ish.

3. Goalies. There's nothing more interesting than seeing how goalies run - and who people value. Unsurprisingly, first four are Holtby/Price... Talbot/Murray. I was interested to see that Bob & Dubnyk were sort of falling consistently as 5/6... and even more interested to see Allen at #7. For me, I've got Allen "in the pack" of a bunch of guys from 5-19, but closer to 13/14. I don't think the Blues will be special in any way. But undertstanding value is key. So when Freddy Andersen falls to me in the Wales at pick #69 (ADP 40.7) and then I get Lundqvist at #76 (ADP 63.9), I'm smiling.

4. Defense. This is my favourite trend for this year. In Wales, I got OV at #4... but then took four straight defensemen (Hedman at #21, Letang at #29, Subban at #49, Weber at #53). I just think getting PPP/SOG/HIT all in one D is very hard and that PPP runs out. In the Wales, surprisingly... I thinned out top-end D, but nobody joined the run. I was hoping to create some value-forwards for my round 8-12 picks, but it didn't happen like I saw it in RHRS.

5. One statistical recommendation, I'd say that any undrafted player should get a draft value of "301"... and their average should be based on that. That'll pull a guy drafted in 5/7 leagues, like Darnell Nurse, down a bit lower, more reflective of ADP.

6. Reaches & Fallers. Reaches and Falls are interesting. Of course, it only takes ONE reacher to take a guy early, so its not telling on the league. But a "Faller", that suggests that 12 or 11 GMs pass on a guy one... or two... or three rounds, when other leagues are taking that guy at some point.

7. I would love to see a summation of standard deviations on players from ADP. I think the Wales had a very "tight" draft without much reaching and without any allowing falling. I think our player selections would be very close to ADP - a top two or three "closeness" of the leagues, based on quick league glance-over (and I "sat in" on portions of all four entry drafts). To criticize two leagues, , in the PRO-Campbell - how do 12 GMs not draft Steve Mason? C'mon, the Jets, the Jets are gonna be GOOD! (You shoulda seen 4T2 take my RHRS Mason props and apply them in the Wales to an early 12th round pick of Mason). And the Patrick, how does RyJo slip past 12 GMs for multiple rounds and finally go at 126. 126! In the six other leagues: 95, 62 (the Campbell!), 95, 101, 98, 101. 95-101, that's his draft range. Not 62 (which only is telling of the "one reacher"). Certainly not 126 (which means 12 guys let him slide, multiple rounds).