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Thread: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

  1. #16
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by PenguinHunter View Post
    Saved for Penguin Hunter Draft Manifesto and Pick Analysis Part 2
    Based on reading this, I probably should have studied a bit more for this exam. My draft strategy was to make picks when I was able to and have the computer draft when I was busy with my real life. I think my draft was good enough for to finish in the top 12 which is my goal against these experts.

    Here's my draft. I had the 8th pick.

    1-8 - Joe Pavelski
    2-18 - Dustin Byfuglien
    3-32 - Blake Wheeler
    4 - 42 - Drew Doughty
    5 - 56 - Phil Kessel
    6 - 66 - Brayden Schenn
    7 - 80 - Jeff Skinner
    8 - 90 - Evander Kane
    9 - 104 - Robin Lehner
    10 - 114 - Nathan MacKinnon
    11 - 128 - Nino Niederreiter
    12 - 138 - Charlie McAvoy
    13 - 152 - Cam Fowler
    14 - 162 - Marcus Johansson
    15 - 176 - Hampus Lindholm
    16 - 186 - Boone Jenner
    17 - 200 - Jaroslav Halak
    18 - 210 - James Neal
    19 - 224 - Erik Johnson
    20 - 234 - Tomas Hertl
    21 - 248 - James Reimer
    22 - 258 - Kevin Fiala
    23 - 272 - Nick Bjugstad
    24 - 282 - Matt Benning
    25 - 206 - Martin Hanzal

    I am ok with my draft. It was not great but it has a lot of potential. I really like my defense as 5 of the guys should play PP1 and I think Matt Benning should be a great late round pick with these settings. He will be playing in the top 4 and probably PP2 this season. He should be good for 2 hits per game as well.

    My goaltenders are going to be weak in the wins and the ratios but I should do great in the wins category. I also think that these 3 goalies should get me the 164 games that we are allowed.

    Up front, I have a pretty mixed bag. I should do great in shots and PPP but I will probably do terribly in hits and +/-.

  2. #17
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Based on reading this, I probably should have studied a bit more for this exam. My draft strategy was to make picks when I was able to and have the computer draft when I was busy with my real life. I think my draft was good enough for to finish in the top 12 which is my goal against these experts.

    Here's my draft. I had the 8th pick.

    1-8 - Joe Pavelski
    2-18 - Dustin Byfuglien
    3-32 - Blake Wheeler
    4 - 42 - Drew Doughty
    5 - 56 - Phil Kessel
    6 - 66 - Brayden Schenn
    7 - 80 - Jeff Skinner
    8 - 90 - Evander Kane
    9 - 104 - Robin Lehner
    10 - 114 - Nathan MacKinnon
    11 - 128 - Nino Niederreiter
    12 - 138 - Charlie McAvoy
    13 - 152 - Cam Fowler
    14 - 162 - Marcus Johansson
    15 - 176 - Hampus Lindholm
    16 - 186 - Boone Jenner
    17 - 200 - Jaroslav Halak
    18 - 210 - James Neal
    19 - 224 - Erik Johnson
    20 - 234 - Tomas Hertl
    21 - 248 - James Reimer
    22 - 258 - Kevin Fiala
    23 - 272 - Nick Bjugstad
    24 - 282 - Matt Benning
    25 - 206 - Martin Hanzal

    I am ok with my draft. It was not great but it has a lot of potential. I really like my defense as 5 of the guys should play PP1 and I think Matt Benning should be a great late round pick with these settings. He will be playing in the top 4 and probably PP2 this season. He should be good for 2 hits per game as well.

    My goaltenders are going to be weak in the wins and the ratios but I should do great in the wins category. I also think that these 3 goalies should get me the 164 games that we are allowed.

    Up front, I have a pretty mixed bag. I should do great in shots and PPP but I will probably do terribly in hits and +/-.
    Unless I missed that the Penguins named Kessel their starting goalie I think you may be over estimating your win totals just a little. Only one of your three goalies is the guaranteed starter (Lehner), and even he has a backup (Johnson) that stole a starter job from Elliott for parts of last season. Also I'm not sure that any of those teams make the playoffs.

    You do have a solid roster of skaters though.
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  3. #18
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    Unless I missed that the Penguins named Kessel their starting goalie I think you may be over estimating your win totals just a little. Only one of your three goalies is the guaranteed starter (Lehner), and even he has a backup (Johnson) that stole a starter job from Elliott for parts of last season. Also I'm not sure that any of those teams make the playoffs.

    You do have a solid roster of skaters though.
    That should have said, "My goaltenders are going to be weak in the wins and the ratios but I should do great in the SAVES category." I can't be both great and terrible in wins and I am definitely not going to be great!

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    For the most part, I stuck to my draft strategy (I picked 2nd):

    1. Draft BPA with preference to players with multi-position status.
    2. Pick a Tier 1 or 2 G in round 2 & 3 (due to having the 2nd overall pick).
    3. Draft my D-men earlier than I usually do.

    Here is my team (I removed the dummy commish picks):

    1-2 - Crosby (C)
    2-23 - Talbot (G)
    3-26 - Dubnyk (G)
    4-47 - Granlund (C/RW)
    5-50 - OEL (D)
    6-71 - Guentzel (C/LW)
    7-74 - S. Jones (D)
    8-95 - Parayko (D)
    9-98 - Dumba (D)
    10-119 - Toews (C)
    11-122 - Leddy (D)
    12-143 - Seabrook (D)
    13-146 - Zetterberg (C/LW)
    14-167 - Hellebuyck (G)
    15-170 - Skjei (D)
    16-191 - Hayes (C/RW)
    17-194 - Williams (RW)
    18-215 - Tatar (LW/RW)
    19-218 - Zucker (LW/RW)
    20-239 - Frolik (RW)
    21-242 - D. Sedin (LW)
    22-263 - Nugent-Hopkins (C)
    23-266 - J. Staal (C)
    24-287 - Krejci (C)
    25-290 - Brown (RW)

    I was really happy to be able to draft both Crosby and Guentzel. I was also surprized at the quality of C's available in the last few rounds. Overall, I am happy with my team and barring injuries should be competitive.
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    19 Active / 6 Reserve / 15 Minors
    3C/3LW/3RW/3F/6D/1G
    Skaters: G/ A/ +/- /PIM/SOG/PPP/Hit/Blk/FOW-C
    Goalies: GS/W/OL/GAA/SV%/SV/SHO/ShL/A

  5. #20
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    That should have said, "My goaltenders are going to be weak in the wins and the ratios but I should do great in the SAVES category." I can't be both great and terrible in wins and I am definitely not going to be great!
    Makes sense! Good that you know where you're at, and maybe you can target a backup on a good team to try and get some easy wins out.
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  6. #21
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Projected standings

    Rank Team Draft pos Skater pts Goalie pts Total pts
    1 nimmer's Team 4 53 23 76
    2 BillyHoyle'sHustlers 9 43 27 70
    3 Youngblood 1 52 15 67
    4 J 10 44 22 66
    5 T-Bone 6 41 23 64
    6 Fresno Firebirds 2 31 29 60
    7 Tom C's Team 5 31 28 59
    8 Bryantville Bandits 7 32 20 52
    9 Hani's Groovy Team 11 28 22 50
    10 OgieOgilthorpe 12 40 8 48
    11 Hamptons Howl 8 42 4 46
    12 Oil City 3 31 13 44

  7. #22
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post
    Projected standings

    Rank Team Draft pos Skater pts Goalie pts Total pts
    1 nimmer's Team 4 53 23 76
    2 BillyHoyle'sHustlers 9 43 27 70
    3 Youngblood 1 52 15 67
    4 J 10 44 22 66
    5 T-Bone 6 41 23 64
    6 Fresno Firebirds 2 31 29 60
    7 Tom C's Team 5 31 28 59
    8 Bryantville Bandits 7 32 20 52
    9 Hani's Groovy Team 11 28 22 50
    10 OgieOgilthorpe 12 40 8 48
    11 Hamptons Howl 8 42 4 46
    12 Oil City 3 31 13 44
    Predicted top 3 finish for me by Youngblood.... best ever for me by his predictions! In for a good year!

  8. #23
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post
    Projected standings

    Rank Team Draft pos Skater pts Goalie pts Total pts
    1 nimmer's Team 4 53 23 76
    2 BillyHoyle'sHustlers 9 43 27 70
    3 Youngblood 1 52 15 67
    4 J 10 44 22 66
    5 T-Bone 6 41 23 64
    6 Fresno Firebirds 2 31 29 60
    7 Tom C's Team 5 31 28 59
    8 Bryantville Bandits 7 32 20 52
    9 Hani's Groovy Team 11 28 22 50
    10 OgieOgilthorpe 12 40 8 48
    11 Hamptons Howl 8 42 4 46
    12 Oil City 3 31 13 44
    Is this based on FHG?

    Writer of the weekly Top 10 column.

    12-team Keeper pool, straight points for forwards & dmen. Goalies get: 2 points per win, 3 per shutout, 1 point per assist & 1 point per shootout loss.

    League champ in 2013, 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022.

    Top 8 forwards, 5 dmen and 2 goalies count.

    We keep 15 players (any position) plus two rookies.

    Forwards: Panarin, Ovechkin, Kopitar, Stamkos, Tuch, Rust, Marchessault, Pavelski, Miller, Bertuzzi, Stone, Kakko, Brown, Stankoven, Kovalenko
    Defence: Hedman, Fox, Matheson, Thrun, Jiricek
    Goalies: Kochetkov, Talbot, Vasilevskiy, Campbell, Schmid


  9. #24
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by newfcollins View Post
    Is this based on FHG?
    Pretty sure it's based on Temek's own forecasting.
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
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  10. #25
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by newfcollins View Post
    Is this based on FHG?
    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    Pretty sure it's based on Temek's own forecasting.
    Yeah, projections are based on my own projections. I think I have posted end of season recaps at least for Rocky Horror Roto Show for the last few seasons. So if you want to have some idea of reliability of the projections you might want to check RHRS league threads for previous seasons.

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Wow...guess I won't have to watch this league at all since I am projected to finish 30 points behind the winner. What's that, ZERO of the 1271 NHL regular season games have been played yet?

    "So you're telling me there's a chance!"

  12. #27
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Wow...guess I won't have to watch this league at all since I am projected to finish 30 points behind the winner. What's that, ZERO of the 1271 NHL regular season games have been played yet?

    "So you're telling me there's a chance!"
    There have been cases where bottom3 projected teams have won the league so I wouldn't take the projections too seriously. I'd say they are a decent bit better than saying every team has an equal chance, but they are far from a destiny.

  13. #28
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post
    Yeah, projections are based on my own projections. I think I have posted end of season recaps at least for Rocky Horror Roto Show for the last few seasons. So if you want to have some idea of reliability of the projections you might want to check RHRS league threads for previous seasons.
    Do you actually project each player in the NHL for each of the categories in the league? If not, how do you come up with projected end of year rankings? If so, I would be very interested to see your projections for the following players:

    Kevin Fiala
    Matt Benning

  14. #29
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Do you actually project each player in the NHL for each of the categories in the league? If not, how do you come up with projected end of year rankings? If so, I would be very interested to see your projections for the following players:

    Kevin Fiala
    Matt Benning
    I don't project each player, just every player I deem fantasy worthy in 1-year leagues I play. So I do project about 100 players in each forward position, 120 or so defensemen and every goalie I think will be an NHL regular in the upcoming season. So someone like Benning is about the last tier of guys I usually do. Check the attachment for projections for Benning and Fiala for the upcoming season. Do note that all values are per 82 GP so if you want to get an actual projected points for example, you'd have divide by 82 and multiply by the given GP projection. I know it may seem odd that I do project player X to get 42.5656 points or something like that, but I don't see any reason to round the numbers.
    chuckcouples.zip

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Entry - Patrick Division

    Not a bad start to the season for my team. I am doing great in +/-. and SOG, ok in goals, and GAA and terrible in everything else. Hopefully my team gets better as the season progresses.

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