2017/18 Dobber Entry - Smythe Division

[Pengwin7]

^If I had to speculate on the accuracy, I'd say the following:

In the 12-team RHRS, I would estimate:
His skater projections (ranked by team), untraded, would fall within 2 places of where he predicts them at excellent confidence (85% of time, within 2 spots). A 5th place pre-season rank skater-team likely to be either 3/4/5/6/7 at end of season.
His goalie projections (ranked by team), untraded, would fall within 4 places of where he predicts them at good confidence (70% of time, within 4 spots). A 5th place pre-season rank goalie-team likely to be either 1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9... but not 10,11,12.

Every year I check where I am in his ranks, traditionally I have a top 3 skater group and bottom 3 goalie group.
If I can hold my top 3 skater group and get a 7th-9th goalie group, that's usually gotten me close to a top 3 finish.

Last year in RHRS was first year I went with any premium goalies.
I actually had a better than average overall score with a middling skater group and middle+ goalie group.
Carey Price shit the bed in Dec/Jan/Feb and I could never rally my skaters, even after trading Price away for help.
I finished 9th/12 after previous finishes of 2/3/2/3 in that league.
(And sadly, the guy that had a dismal goalie group last year... actually WON IT, 1st, on the strength of some value-drafted/added goalies, Budaj!, to go in combination with good skaters... and a league that hunted down Enemy#1 in many cats: temek.)

I went heavy on skaters again this year.


Short Summary:
temek's ranking are very good, especially with respect to skaters.

[tweetdrivr]

Thank you Temek. I've been using Dobber's guide for my teams over on ESPN for the last five years and have been top 3 every year and won it twice. But just as you say...its usually the bodacious sleeper/late pick (like Scheifle last season - who I picked up on due to an article by Travis Yost on TSN) or an injury/FA add...last season the ESPN league was really tight and the guy who won was the Quick owner and he grabbed Budaj and he was stellar for him...random stuff like that. I certainly feel better about my team than a 9th place finish but I may just be fooling myself.

[tweetdrivr]

Damn Budaj!! Where the heck did that crap come from, right?

[Johner]

Pengwin - interesting analysis.

For this league set up I try and get my predictions to be close to :
Goals - 340
Assists - 560
PPP - 250
SOG - 3250
Hits - 1900

I then weigh them by position when doing the draft. Does anyone else use this strategy, and if so, what are your targets per?

Temek - what does your average, per top 25% in each category, would work out to when you calculate your standings?

[Pengwin7]

I've heard some people identifying "winning counts" and targeting... I just don't see how you can be flexible enough to get that (without computer assistance).
Excellent strategy, I just don't believe its human-only-proof.


My own strategy is to sort players and find the end of all starting draft players: i.e. Identify top 48C/48LW/48RW/72D.
I list those guys, sum their stats, divide by some number across (8000 is what I used this year) and get some value.
(I use Yahoo Projections - which are pretty solid - but manual adjust certain players, like Subban & Drouin)

Then I assign a value to each category to give it "category weight".

[Then there's this iteration where you have to tweak weights, re-sort, until it converges... math stuff...]

Now that my drafts are over, I can divulge my weights, which are similar to previous years:

G: 2.00 (1.99 calc'd)
A: 1.20 (1.19 calc'd)
+/-: 1 per (this is my base weight, and Yahoo has used similar)
PPP: 3.00 (2.54 calc'd)
SOG: 0.15 (0.21 calc'd)
HIT: 0.20 (0.60 calc'd)

I upweight PP manually, because I think it is incredible hard to find on the wire, especially among D-men.
I downweight SOG & HIT, because they are always on the wire and I can just go hard on those whenever I need to chase.

Then I spend a month studying the shit out of my spreadsheet.
When I show up for Yahoo drafts, I use no tools, no spreadsheets.
Most people know, I'm incredibly chatty in drafts - and that's cause everything I have is saved in my head.

I've always wanted to do a 12-man hockey draft, live, in an empty room, with categories/roster allocations announced, then draft. (no supplements)
I think that would be a lot of fun.
From my side of the screen, I have no idea what other people are doing.
These days, I know a lot of people are letting computer programs pick their team and think that by clicking what the program says.. it's their team to take pride in.
Sigh - I miss the days of "live drafts"...
<rant over>

[goalies are a whole different animal that I don't really like... except that I firmly believe you can value-find and value-start them if the league size is standard 12x2g. I put guys into tiers, count them off as they are drafted, and try to value-snipe my guy right before his tier runs out. This year that goalie was Steve Mason (/Helle as fail-safe).]

[Johner]

From my side of the screen, I have no idea what other people are doing.
These days, I know a lot of people are letting computer programs pick their team and think that by clicking what the program says.. it's their team to take pride in.
Sigh - I miss the days of "live drafts"...
<rant over>

Haha, rest assured the only tools I bring to the draft are beer!! I also do my prep ahead of time. We used to do our live drafts in two stages. First stage started at 5-6pm , roughly, and "sheets" were allowed. Then we do a "drunk draft" around 10pm, no tools. I also miss those days!!

[temek]

Pengwin - interesting analysis.

For this league set up I try and get my predictions to be close to :
Goals - 340
Assists - 560
PPP - 250
SOG - 3250
Hits - 1900

I then weigh them by position when doing the draft. Does anyone else use this strategy, and if so, what are your targets per?

Temek - what does your average, per top 25% in each category, would work out to when you calculate your standings?

For this league specifically the average projections of Top3 teams in categories were: G: 340, A: 595, SOG; 3550, PPP: 290, HIT:2200. Realistically the numbers at the end of the league will end up a decent bit lower, but you can't really project major injuries so being a little optimistic is to be expected. Just for a reference, for the last season in Pro Campbell (13 teams) top3 teams in each cat averaged as follows: G:355, A: 539, PPP: 279, SOG: 3474, HIT:1840.

[PenguinHunter]

I've always wanted to do a 12-man hockey draft, live, in an empty room, with categories/roster allocations announced, then draft. (no supplements)
I think that would be a lot of fun.
From my side of the screen, I have no idea what other people are doing.
These days, I know a lot of people are letting computer programs pick their team and think that by clicking what the program says.. it's their team to take pride in.
Sigh - I miss the days of "live drafts"...
<rant over>

AMEN Brother...AMEN!!!

My $$$ league, we used to get together in a basement, watch football all Sunday and draft. It was great. No technology, 'live beaks' and getting to hang with the guys.

I agree with the fact that using technology it is not really 'your team'. We play fantasy sports, we gamble, we bet, to prove that we know more then the next guy. So if you are just using a spreadsheet provided by someone else... then you are using all their homework and rewarding from it and proving that they are smarter than the next guy not yourself!

[Pengwin7]

Haha, rest assured the only tools I bring to the draft are beer!!

AMEN Brother...AMEN!!!

Great to hear... one of these years we'll do a Live draft in Vegas.
Would love to meet some like-drafting forum members!!!

(and then, we catch... a hockey game!!!!)



ps. Sorry to the Smythe Division for hijacking your thread. Bad Pengwin.

[tweetdrivr]

No this is all great info. Doesn't bother me at all.

[finnys_fanatsy]

WOOOO, 1st place Biatches..hahaha

(ya i know its one night in....i guy can gloat eh!)

[StuntMan12]

Agree with Pengwin on the live draft thing. That's the most fun of it all is drafting. I just look at the payouts as a bonus, If I don't win, I don't win.

[tweetdrivr]

WOOOO, 1st place Biatches..hahaha

(ya i know its one night in....i guy can gloat eh!)

WOOOOOO! 5th place...already over achieving. Damn this is fun stuff.

[finnys_fanatsy]

agree with pengwin on the live draft thing. That's the most fun of it all is drafting. I just look at the payouts as a bonus, if i don't win, i don't win.

yup..just wanted to be involved really...its free..i'll play

[evans334]

At least we're all beating the dummy commish. #ParticipationMedals