2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

[Eskimo Brother]

It's just the first round that is wrong between 5 and 9. And maybe I imagined remembering that Stamkos went right after Karlsson...

I actually think that the yahoo page might be right based on what we had in the draft. The first round shows the GMs out of order, but it shows the results in order of what I remember. So maybe the first round got edited by one of us by accident before the draft?
Eh team got pick 9 instead of 5
Jobbers got 5 instead of 6
Mark's team got 6 instead of 9

I think I remember Eh team saying that he was taking Holtby anyways.
Jobbers would have still picked Kuch, so the only fallout is if Benn would have not made it to 9?

Not sure what, if anything we can really do at this point.

[horrorfan]

It's just the first round that is wrong between 5 and 9. And maybe I imagined remembering that Stamkos went right after Karlsson...

I actually think that the yahoo page might be right based on what we had in the draft. The first round shows the GMs out of order, but it shows the results in order of what I remember. So maybe the first round got edited by one of us by accident before the draft?
Eh team got pick 9 instead of 5
Jobbers got 5 instead of 6
Mark's team got 6 instead of 9

I think I remember Eh team saying that he was taking Holtby anyways.
Jobbers would have still picked Kuch, so the only fallout is if Benn would have not made it to 9?

Not sure what, if anything we can really do at this point.

The first round is actually the correct order. I verified it on the draft order thread, which shows the generated order from fftoolbox. It goes out of whack from the second round.

Like Temek suggested, I'm going to assume that it's just Yahoo messing up the results page post-draft.

[rooneypoo]

This was the first Dobber draft I had where I didn't experience technical issues with the Yahoo draft page, so that was great. It also means I have no excuse for not having the team I wanted. There were only two occasions where I ended up drafting someone I didn't want to, and that was because of the 60 sec clock. Otherwise, I did my homework for this draft. I used Dobber's projections and plugged them into FHG to get rankings specific to our settings. Then I 'coded' high performances in each category in red (high performance: i.e., 25+ goals, 40+ assists, +10 or higher +/-, and so on) and blue (low performance: i.e., 10 or fewer goals, 20 or fewer assists, -10 or worse +/-, and so on). When I made my picks, I drafted players with the most categories highlighted in red (or not highlighted at all) and avoided as much as possible those players who had multiple categories highlighted in blue. This is the strategy that won me the Pro league last year. I also planned to draft at least 3 quality starters, for insurance and for trade fodder, and to load up on multi-cat guys. Last year, the deals I made on my 3rd and 4th goalie selections (Anderson and Greiss) put me over the top for the win.

I was in the 5th slot, so I didn't know who exactly to take if Crosby or OV or Burns weren't available. I decided on Kucherov, who is a solid producer in all categories but HIT and likely to be top 5 in points overall this year. I gave Karlsson a good hard look, and also thought about a goalie, but Kucherov's goal totals prevailed -- I didn't think I'd get someone with 40-goal/80-90 point potential in the next round.

In the 2nd round, I was happy to see that Dubnyk (the 5th ranked goalie on my list, 10th overall) was still available. I was looking hard at another goalie when the third round came to me, but with Schenn still on the board (ranked 11th overall on my list), I took him and hoped for the best on the goalie front. His dual eligibility is also attractive: I start thinking about loading up on Cs who are winger eligible so I could draft my actual centres later in the draft. A small run on goalies started 5~ picks before me in round 4, but I still managed to snag Bishop, who my FHG list had ranked ahead of Jones, Gibson, and Rinne, who were all picked before I took Bishop. A real run on goalies happened right after this, so I was relieved I didn't wait any longer.

At this stage, I'm happy that I have two quality starters, and I have a lot of everything in my first two skater picks. But by now many of the best D have gone off the board, so I'm anxious to start filling that spot. Ristolanen is sniped right in front of me, so I waffle between Weber and Doughty, but ultimately take Doughty. At this stage, some people start taking players that are on page 2 and 3 of my 6-page FHG list; I remain on page one (top 50 skaters) for some rounds to come.

So, while the likes of Nylander and Marner and Bergeron are selected in front of me, for my 6th selection, I take Arvidsson, ranked 40th overall. I follow that pick up with Kreider (7th) and Parayko (8th), and I'm still working from page one of my list. At this stage, I feel like I have a lot of strong mult-cat producers, and that frees me up to make some selections with more of an eye on assists and PPP as well as goalies.

Now finally on p.2 of my list, I select Seth Jones for my 9th pick. I had my eye on Craig Anderson, but he was sniped just a few picks in front of me: I move Fleury up my queue just in case. Darling, Lehner, and Smith all go in the next few picks, but I decide on Trocheck for my 10th pick, another strong multi-cat performer who I had at 67 on my list. As hoped, Fleury remains available to me for my 11th pick, so I take him. My plan is to spot start him against weaker teams, and then ride Bishop and Dubnyk for their 55-60 starts a piece. I might even be able to trade him later in the year if he gives lots of SVs, as expected, because I really only need 20-30 games out of him.

At this stage, I have 2 guys who can play C, 3 who can play LW, 2 who can play RW, 3 D, and 3 goalies. So, I have to start thinking a bit more carefully about drafting at specific positions. This will screw me up with one pick later on.

I take Jenner with pick #12, who also has C/LW eligibility, because I've now decided that these multi-cat guys are going to be an area of strength for my team: I'll be able to move 1-2 of them for more offence if it turns out I need it. I've got Lindholm in my sights for my next pick, because I feel like I have to take another RW or D here, but he goes just in front of me, so I settle with Zuccarello for pick #13. I'm OK with his low SOG/HIT total because I've shored that up already, whereas his 40~ assists, 20~ PPP, and good +/- are exactly what I need at this stage.

One advantage of my early "centre" selections was that two of them were eligible to play wing, so there are a lot of decent Cs still available for very cheap. I take E. Staal with pick #14 and start to slot my other "Cs" as wingers on my own roster sheet in front of me (ignoring the Yahoo roster on the draft page). With Niskanen and Martinez selected in the previous round, I take Skjei with pick #15. For pick #16, I take Neal, who is slotted at 133 on my list but I have been passing over in multiple rounds because of the +/- risk. At this stage, however, I have a lot of guys who are likely going to be really strong +/- performers, so I decide I can absorb the hit.

My next pick, #17, is a total snafu: I've got Montour selected and am ready to hit the 'draft' button, but my monitor blacks out for 20~ seconds. When the screen returns, I have drafted Vlasic, who was in my queue -- which I use to keep an eye on players, and not to actually draft. Ah well. I take Koivu with pick #18: like Zuccarello, I'm OK with the low SOG/HIT he offers in return for the 40~ assists, 20~ PPP, and good +/- he should also bring in.

With picks #19 and #20, I take Horvat and Murphy. I can easily absorb Horvat's +/- risk at this stage, esp. in return for 50~ points and 20~ PPP, whereas with Murphy, I get something of a Gudas-light with more potential upside and a better +/- projection because he's now in CHI. For those keeping score, I'm selecting players from the 3rd page of my FHG list, meaning that while we're 240 picks in, I'm still selected skaters ranked in the 140-160 range on my list.

My next pick, #21, is when my queue betrays me. I had Perron in there forever, but kept passing on him because I don't like to have many +/- risks on my roster. At this stage, I'm noticing that I really only have 3 guys who can play right wing and I really need to fix that. With the clock counting down, I'm scrambling and I have find someone I want (I've forgotten who now!), but I run out of time and I end up with Perron because of my queue. Ah well: at least he's RW eligible. I console myself with the certainty that I have a lot of guys who should be strong +/- performers who can balance this pick out.

At this stage, I'm having an impossible time keeping track of who's still available or not. For my final 4 picks, nothing unexpected happens, however. I take Slavin, Perrault, Condon, and Williams (because I need a 5th RW player). Perrault served me very well last year, and Condon is a sneaky pick: OTT this year has more back-to-back games then just about any team in the league, so I figure he will get 25+ starts. As a Sens fan, I also know that Anderson is due for some missed time.

In the end, this is my team:

C: Schenn (LW), Trocheck, E. Staal, Koivu, Horvat
LW: Arvidsson (RW), Kreider, Neal (RW), Jenner (C), Perrault (C)
RW: Kucherov, Zuccarello, Perron (LW), Williams
D: Doughty, Parayko, Jones, Skjei, Vlasic, Murphy, Slavin
G: Dubnyk, Bishop, Fleury, Condon

For skaters, I think my team will be very competitive in the G, +/-, HIT, and SOG categories, decent to fair for assists, and probably weak in PPP. For goalies, I think I'll be competitive for Ws and SVs, and the x-factor will be whether or not Dubnyk and Bishop's GAA average can balance out any damage Fleury or Condon might do on that front. Overall, I think it's a pretty solid team.

[Eskimo Brother]

I actually seem to remember having Mark and Mario after/before me for most of the draft, so I'm wondering if we somehow saved the draft order, realized it was wrong, but only edited the first round to make it correct...

[horrorfan]

I actually seem to remember having Mark and Mario after/before me for most of the draft, so I'm wondering if we somehow saved the draft order, realized it was wrong, but only edited the first round to make it correct...

I never changed the order once I entered it, then I double checked it to match up what's in the draft order thread. Also, we can only edit the first round and then tell it to be snake or not.

The following draft order was randomly generated for your league:
1 - duntroon68
2 - LordoftheRinks
3 - The Comish
4 - temek
5 - rooneypoo
6 - holypuck
7 - PensInThree
8 - lowblocker
9 - Johner
10 - horrorfan
11 - TheNugeCooge
12 - jcairns

Regards,
FFToolbox.com

Not sure what else happened, but the first round is correct. From then on, it shows as changed and each pair of rounds are the same thereafter.

If those guys were indeed right next to you, then something happened in the draft because I know that The Eh Team is correctly in the 9th position in the first round, just before us.

I'm changing my draft results sheet to match up what it should be in the first round, and using it for my draft summary. If it turns out to be wrong, so be it. Nobody else has said anything about being in the wrong order, so like you said, nothing can be done now.

[rooneypoo]

I missed having the draft order splashed across the top of the draft page, with the visual display of the draft order and the shift from one pick to the next prominently displayed. With the new tiny box on the right, I have no idea if I was drafting where I was projected to (5th in odd rounds, 7th in even rounds).

[temek]

Hopefully 3rd time's the charm and these projections are finally correct.

Team	Skater pts	Goalie pts	Total pts
Last Resort	66	25	91
***Coming Soon***	38	35	73
Lord of the Rinks	44	23	67
Horrorfan TBD	39	21	60
Maroons	49	10	59
Yellow Dogs	40	18	58
Mario's Team	39	16	55
Mark's Team	35	20	55
The Comish	37	16	53
Beavers	35	12	47
The Eh Team	21	25	46
The Jobbers	25	13	38

Maroons is projected to not reach 164 GP with it's goalies so that kills that team in goalie cats with W and SVS being two of the categories.

[rooneypoo]

I'm gonna crush the sh!t out of that projection. Top 5, I tells ya!

[horrorfan]

Draft results updated on first post. They are not split by rounds but you can figure that out.

[TheNugeCooge]

I do remember Hedman going after Karlsson so it very well could have been the draft order was changed. It didn't affect my draft position so I didn't notice in draft.

[horrorfan]

I do remember Hedman going after Karlsson so it very well could have been the draft order was changed. It didn't affect my draft position so I didn't notice in draft.

Then I guess Yahoo messed up somehow.

I'm leaving the results as I have changed it, to match up what it should have been.

[duntroon68]

I’d like to say I had a coherent plan going into this draft, and I did have a set of stat targets I was aiming for that I almost immediately disregarded. Two things compromised my thoughts while planning. One was that I wasn’t really sure when this group would jump the Yahoo rankings. Most leagues stick pretty close to the set pre-ranks but I wasn’t sure how soon this group would jump on players that were clearly more valuable than Yahoo has listed.Two was that I have never been more aware than I am this year that there are200 players that are going to score 45 points, give or take 10, and that I really don’t know which are 55 and which are 35. I can guess but I don’t know.That combined with everybody else knowing who was going to throw in 100 hits with those points meant that I was going to be looking at a lot of choices where I really didn’t know who I wanted. And that did happen as I drafted a few players that I never dreamed I was going to draft. There was always a reason I picked a guy but I’m not sure how good some of those reasons are.

1 (1) Connor McDavid. I was initially unhappy with the first pick but as I thought about it grew on me. I would rather pick in the middle where you can grab value and catch runs before they end but I figured I would get three players I liked in those first three picks. When you are on a turn you do have to look down the list a bit and take the guys you want which also keeps you from getting too clever and waiting too long. I debated some othe rnames but I thought I wouldn’t over think it and I would take McDavid and the points. Early on, I do try to get points rather than give them up for peripherals as I can get 200 hits from the waiver wire but I cannot get 30 PPP. McDavid has likely not had his best year yet and he just scored 100.

2 (24) Evgeny Malkin. I was not going to draft a goalie at this turn. I figured goalies would go early and often and even more so between this turn and my next pick but unless all the skaters I liked went and Price/Murray/Holtby were still here I wasn’t taking a goalie. I was praying for Seguin and Stamkos based upon their Yahoo rank and because I figured it would take divine intervention to get them. I thought someone might drop with a bunch of goalies being drafted but I was figuring on Wheeler/Pasternak/Letang. I don’t worry about injury prone players too much. If there is a chronic debilitating problem than yes but otherwise no. Malkin, by Yahoo’s formula was the 17^th player in this format last year playing 62 games while FHG has him 27^th.Every year in baseball, I draft Giancarlo Stanton and all that power. He always gets hurt and disappoints. This year he didn’t get hurt, hit 59 HR and I owned him as a 3^rd/4^th round pick on every one of my teams. Which is why I took Malkin here. Players are injury prone until they aren't and betting on huge talent is a good idea.

3 (25) Brad Marchand. 85 points last year seems out of character but his analytics are neutral except for his shooting percentage at 17.3% and his five year average shooting percentage is 15.5% so even that isn’t really out of line. What he had was an extra 1:13 in PP time per game which boosted his PPP by 16 from the previous year. Add 16 to the 61 points from ’15-16 and you get 77. He’s 29. I’m likely taking him earlier than this if given the chance. Neither of these players was on my radar and that can screw up an entire draft plan when you wind up taking C and LW when you were planning on two RW. Which is one reason I decided to not really have a plan for specific players going in. Sometimes a player falling to you necessitates a new plan.

4 (48) Henrik Lundqvist. I was hoping there would be a goalie here. There was. I wanted at least one so that later I wasn’t trying to get two. Do I like Lundqvist? Not really, but I don’t like any goalies particularly. He might suck. He might not. Who would know?

5 (49) Dougie Hamilton. There are a bunch of D that I have tiered together. I wanted more than one and so I wanted to get one here. Each has advantages. I did consider Ristolainen, (you’re welcome, LOTR) but I felt that Hamilton might have more offensive upside. Again, I’ll take the points early and the hits late. I also considered OEL but, between his injury and his later Yahoo rank, I figured he had an outside chance of still being there while Hamilton did not.

6 (72) Claude Giroux. I wanted to draft floor as best I could. Mostly in regards to young players with upside but in any case. Last year Yahoo and FHG had Giroux at #65. Mostly I made this pick because almost all of the players I was considering were taken between my last pick and this one. Maybe Giroux is done but likely not. Philedelphia was bad 5 on 5 last year. A correction means an improvement.

7 (73) Mikael Granlund. The last two years I have made an effort to take RW early as I didn’t like the RW later on. Because I had the thought that I was going to take two RW at the 2/3 turn I didn’t realize until now that I had no RW. So I took Granlund because many other W I wanted were taken. Given that I took a bunch of late RW and had trouble finding LW that I liked, I kind of wished I had done something else here. I might have taken Evander Kane’s shots and hits. I do normalise projections to an 82 game pace for easy comparison. Dobber had Granlund at 75 points which seems high but it stuck in my head. I wound up making a number of “feel” picks later in the draft as the players I liked weren’t there and these two were the first.

8 (96) Craig Anderson. I thought I would take another goalie before they were all gone and I was scrambling.

9 (97) John Carlson. Still in the tier of guys I thought could get 50 points or 40 with hits. I wanted some D like this before they dried up.

10 (120) Jordan Eberle. A feel pick. Still thinking about RW and Eberle is likely to pair with Tavares without much competition resulting in big minutes and PP time. Yahoo had him #120 last year in a crappy year.

11 (121) Tyson Barrie. Has two 50ish point seasons. I had him in my mind as a guy I could get that might return to that level. I really don’t worry about +/-. See the injury argument above. Three years ago, Bergeron was a lock for a plus 35. He was plus 1 that season.

12 (144) Cam Fowler. Was someone I didn’t even remotely have in my plans. Seemed to remember that Carlyle likes him on the PP. Many other players I liked better had gone off the board since my last pick and I always tend towards PPP.

13 (145) Henrik Zetterberg. I had Okposo and Zetterberg in mind as point producers better than their Yahoo pre-rank. With Okposo gone, I took Zetterberg. He is still the main guy in Detroit and I think he is the kind of player that will age well.

14 (169) Alexander Wennberg. I might have taken Stepan if he was available but Wennberg is the same kind of player that Yahoo always ranks around here. He is the #1 line guy in Columbus and will get the PP time and line mates.

15 (170) Thomas Greiss. I own Greiss and Barrie in all three leagues I’ve drafted this year. He just seems like the last starting (maybe) goalie who’s team doesn’t just completely suck. This year there is Darling and Raanta. Two years ago, it was Jones, Last year, it was Greiss and Talbot. Everybody loved him then and it still might work out.

[duntroon68]

16 (192) Anthony Mantha. I was thinking about break outs. Kucherov, Tarasenko, Granlund, Kuznetsov, Johansen…and was trying to think of who might match that mold. Talent, time on ice, line mates and some experience in the NHL all seem to factor. I like my break out bets to already have some NHL time. The whole 4^th year thing without it necessarily being the fourth year. Mantha demonstrated some dominant stretches last year and really has all the opportunity in the world to play. He played at a 49 point pace last year. Some more PP time boosts him into the 60 point range without much other improvement. He was a target but again I was trying not to reach to far on potential.

17 (193) Brayden Point. He produced last year when given the opportunity. He may be the 3^rd line centre but what are the odds at least one TB forward ahead of him gets injured? And he has spent some time on the Stamkos-Kucherov line in pre-season.

18 (216) Jason Spezza. Following my theme of no hits but PPP. He plays on Dallas’ #1 PP unit. The other four went between 100 and 200 picks ago.

19 (217) Erik Johnson. I had a list of hitty-shooty D with some PP time for late in the draft. Some, like Jake Muzzin weren’t going to last but I was hoping for 2 or 3. Johnson was one.

20 (240) Ryan Strome. Maybe plays with McDavid. Maybe they click and he scores a ton. He hits a little too. It’s the 20^th round.

21 (241) Damon Severson. Seemed like he might be the #1 PP QB in NJ. Which might not be worth much but maybe it is. Apparently NJ has been using a 5 forward PP unit so we’ll see.

22 (264) Teuvo Teravainen. See potential break outs. And my need for a LW.

23 (265) Michael Del Zotto. I had forgotten he existed. He had 173 hits and 92 shots in 52 games last year. In Vancouver, he’s likely to get minutes and PP time.

24 (288) Nick Schmaltz. Kept company with Malkin, McDavid, Zetterberg and Gaudreau in primary assists per 60 minutes last year. He might centre Kane this winter.

25 (289) Brett Ritchie. I knew Nick Ritchie was in other managers’ plans. I was going to take both back to back but Nick was taken sooner than I was ready. Both Ritchies hit and shoot a ton. And are liable to see more and better ice time than last year.

I have no predictions of how I’ll do. I wanted more goalsand shots early on. I wanted more hits in general. I figure that it is unlikelythat anyone will completely run away with all the categories which means manyof us will be in the hunt. I hope to be one of them.

[Johner]

I'm gonna crush the sh!t out of that projection. Top 5, I tells ya!

HAHA, my thoughts too! Good luck

[lowblocker]

Last year I was projected for 2nd last and finished 3rd in the Pro league. Look forward to try and beat these again this year. Kind of flew by the seat of my pants in the draft because didn't have time to do a thorough preparation. Will be shallow in hits but hopefully can make up for it in the other categories. Not happy taking Hellebuyck/Mason back to back in rounds 10/11 but I think the Jets could have a big year, goalie options were running thin and who knows which will turn out to be favored by years end (if either).

Good luck to everyone