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Thread: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

  1. #31
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post

    Projected Standings

    Team Skater pts Goalie pts Total pts
    Last Resort 66 25 91
    ***Coming Soon*** 38 33 71
    Lord of the Rinks 43 24 67
    Horrorfan TBD 40 22 62
    Maroons 50 11 61
    Yellow Dogs 39 20 59
    The Comish 35 19 54
    Beavers 37 16 53
    The Eh Team 25 27 52
    Mario's Team 33 17 50
    Mark's Team 31 14 45
    The Jobbers 31 6 37

    Maroons and The Jobbers are not projected to hit 164 GP by my projections so that pretty much kills them in goalie stats as two of the categories are W and SVS.
    I'll take that for my team. Plenty to work with to improve both numbers and hopefully be in the mix.

  2. #32
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Man. I love Temek's analysis. Really knows his stuff. Judging by his rankings, good luck to the rest of you!!

    Was pretty happy reading his analysis as I managed to hit on a couple of the guys he seemed to be targeting at decent spots.

    Any chance we can get some Temek projections for the Pro Leagues?

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    I think the best part about his projected rankings is that by the end of the Expert draft, yahoo had him projected last.
    1) I think that speaks to how close the standings will be.
    2) I have never seen Temeks projections, but I somehow still have more faith in them than I do in the yahoo ones.
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  4. #34
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    The Eh Team - Drafting 9th overall

    C - Stamkos, Hischier, Marchessault, Dubinsky
    LW - Lucic, Tkachuk, Landeskog, JT Miller
    RW - Laine, Perry, Oshie, Larkin
    D - Josi, Shattenkirk, Schultz, Goligoski, Hanifin, Chara
    G - Holtby, Schneider
    BN - Lehner(G), Johnson(G), Stastny (C), Patrick (C), Zacha (C,LW)


    1. (9) Braden Holtby (Was-G)
    Holtby was one of my top 6 ranked players, I expected Talbot, very pleased with Holtby. Regardless of the roster turnover in Washington I expect a 100+ point season from them. Their biggest loss was a deadline pickup. They will be fine and Holtby is a stud

    2. (20) Steven Stamkos (TB-C)
    My predraft plan for this pick was for an elite dman or Benn/Stamkos. I would have taken karlsson if he was available(very nervously with his health; thank fully he was gone). I went back and forth between Letang and Stamkos but felt Stamkos was the safest choice.

    3. (29) Patrick Laine (Wpg- RW)
    My plan was to take a top Tier RW this round and had Laine/Pastrnak both planned for this selection. Last Resort scooped Pastrnak ahead of me so my decision was easy.

    4. (44) Roman Josi (Nas- D)
    My plan was to take Wheeler or Tavares in this round. Both went ahead of me so decided on a Dman or second goalie. I didn't see a goalie that stood out enough not to wait another round. I have Josi ranked 22 overall in this format so was happy to grab him as my first Dman!!

    5. (53) Cory Schneider (NJ-G)
    4 more goalies went behind my last pick so now I know I need to grab my second tender. Schneider is my highest ranked goalie left (13th) so I jump on him. He should be good for consistent stats and lots of Saves. With Holtby as my number one I figure I may as well finish midpack on GAA and shoot for top 3 in both wins and Saves. I plan to go with a 3 headed monster in Net. I am pretty sure I can grab Lehner, just need to plan on when.

    6. (68) Kevin Shattenkirk (NYR-D)
    This pick needed to be another defense. I load my Que with OEL, Subban, Weber, Doughty and Pietrangelo thinking one will fall to me for sure. WRONG!!! All of these guys were gone almost immediately after I picked Schneider. I start to panic then realized somehow I missed adding Shattenkirk (I have him ranked top 60) to my Que. I was happy to find him and get back on track with my strategy.

    7. (77) Corey Perry (Ana-RW)
    I am not happy with this pick at all! I am confident he would have been available several rounds later. This is where my disconnect/browser let me down the first time. I was after Huberdeau with this pick as I have him slotted 25 places higher than Perry and know he has less chance of sliding.

    8. (92) Milan Lucic (Edm-LW)
    Not a sexy pick, some will think I reached, but I was targeting him in this round. I expect a strong year from him and have him ranked top 50 in this set up. Solid Snag

    9. (101) Robin Lehner (Buf- G)
    Wanted to wait longer on Lehner but with so few goalies left on the table and him being my target I needed to pull the trigger. Only other goalie I had interest in is Fleury but prefer Lehner for the makeup of my tenders. I planned for Talbot/Vasilevskiy/Lehner with my pre-picks; even though it changed I am Very happy with my 3 goalies!

    10. (116) T.J. Oshie (Was-RW)
    Here is where I was really focusing on draft timing. I had two players still ranked very high, JT Miller and Gudas, but felt both would be around a few more picks. I think Oshie will have another good year, even if he steps back a bit, he is still great value on RW in the 10th round.

    11. (125) Matthew Tkachuk (Cgy-LW)
    This one stung a little. When I went offline 2 picks before my turn Aho and Fleury are still on the board. I was happy to take either of them here. I need a LW so Aho would be better but I am happy with taking Fleury as trade bait. Then I disconnect. Logged back on to see Tkachuk (whom I had in my Que, unable to be sorted due to my vintage browser) was picked. Don't hate the pick but would have preferred Fleury (Aho had been taken ahead of me).

    12. (140) Gabriel Landeskog (Col - LW)
    Still trying to fill my wings I was happy to take Landeskog (have him ranked 146 and he fills a roster need). I expect him to have a strong season and the only thing he doesn't help is +/-

    13. (149) Justin Schultz (Pit - D)
    I am needing defense and my top ranked Dman is Gudas. He should be around a few more rounds so I look at the board for other options. I see Jt Miller is still there, and I am getting nervous he is picked soon, but wait knowing I need a dman now. Schultz is my next ranked dman and although I know he will step back this year he is an easy pick here.

    14. (164) J.T. Miller (NYR - LW,RW)
    My projections have him ranked 46 overall (I know you all think I am crazy!!), I was very happy to get him in the 14th round! Looks like Gudas will be my next pick.

    15. (173) Nico Hischier (NJ - C)
    Gudas is available and should be my pick, however, I am lacking C and think Nico has a perfect opportunity this year to contribute. I go back and forth on this but think Gudas will be available next round, Nico wont. I take Nico

    16. (188) Jonathan Marchessault (VGK - C,LW)
    Marks team took Gudas a few picks after me thus leaving me to look at my C as well as Defense this round. My highest ranked player is 111th (Gologoski) but decide to go with the dual positional player whom I had ranked 156.


    17. (197) Alex Goligoski (Ari-D)
    My roster is filling out now so I am locked into filling my needs. I take Alex at this point without thinking twice.

    18. (212) Brandon Dubinsky (Cls- C)
    I am not sure why he fell this low, I expected him to go rounds 15-16 so I am happy to welcome him to my roster!

    19. (221) Dylan Larkin (Det - C,RW)
    I took a few gambles at center earlier so plan to fill my roster at this point with C, D if possible. I don't plan to look at any more wingers. Larkin is one of the top dogs left on my list and I expect him to fill a lot of stats. Don't much care for predicting +/- at this stage since based on projections I am in trouble there regardless.

    20. (236) Noah Hanifin (Car - D)
    Safe pick here, similar to Larkin he contributes in most categories. I expect Carolina to be a bubble playoff team this season and Hanifin to be a big part of it. Easy pick for me

    21. (245) Peter Zacha (NJ-C,LW) I have him running the PP very soon in NJ. Good support for an injury on my roster or if someone stumbles.
    22. (260) Zdeno Chara (Bos - D) This fills my last d-slot. Don?t love the pick but feel Chara still offers good value as a 6th dman picked this late.
    23. (269) Nolan Patrick (Phi - C) Swinging for the fences here. Similar to Zacha he has potential to fill a void if needed.
    24. (284) Paul Stastny (STL-C) Probably my favorite pick in the last 10 rounds. Steady contributor whom I am confident will find a way onto my roster early in the season
    25. (292) Chad Johnson (Buf - G) I like Buffalo to improve this season. Johnson is a solid backup if Lehner gets hurt. I shouldn?t need to do much goalie shopping this season; quite happy with my group.

    I am pretty happy with my squad. If I am able to manage it properly I am confident I will be a top contender. Temek (really knows his stuff!!) has me ranked in the bottom half however I am willing to make side bets I don't!!! I will be watching for a dman upgrade/bench backup via waivers or a trade. Good Luck all, another very challenging draft.

  5. #35
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Having the #2 pick is both a curse and a benefit. I would rather have the 11 or 12 pick as the initial overall value you can get is much better. However, having the #2 gets me (IMO) a chance at one of the top players in this scoring format – either Burns or Ovechkin. I went with Burns as getting his level of production at the D-position gives me a lot of flexibility in my roster build. Otherwise, my strategy going into the draft was target high-level roto talent along with 2 starting goalies in the first 4 rounds. Overall balance along with solid goaltending, I believe, are always the key to building a winning team. However, I didn’t want to over pay for a goalie in this draft – I wanted to target volume starters over the truly elite tier one goalies that will likely go in he first round (Price, Holtby, Murray) Also, given the depth at center position, I tend to prioritize centers last. In general, I target ‘roto’ type players and not players with low peripherals – ideally players with a combo of SOG 150+ and HIT 100+.

    Finally, I consider this draft, along with the RHRS league, as being the doctorate program of fantasy hockey. This is the opportunity to hone your craft with the best of the best in terms of draft strategy and tactics. Really good insight to gain by reading everyone's approach.

    1. (2) Burns D
    Hits all the categories and top of his class for his position in this scoring set up.

    2. (23) Pavelksi RW/C
    Another solid roto producer and really happy to get him late in this round – cross the board production and dual-eligibility.

    3. (26) F. Andersen G
    Wanted to make sure I get at least one of my volume start goalies as I expect most of my targets will disappear by the next time I pick. I see Andersen as this year’s Talbot – he’ll get lots of starts and his team is on the upswing.

    4. (47) F. Vasilevskiy G
    I was correct and 9 goalies went before this pick. The last one left on my target list was Vas so it was now or never. He’s in a great role with a talented team so I expect big things. Just in case to cover my but I’ll make sure I snag Budaj later on for insurance!

    5. (50) Simmonds RW
    I had either Simmonds or Ristolainen lined up for this pick and kept holding my breath one would be there (thank you Yellow Dogs!). Both provide incredible value and would have been happy with either but love Simmonds for his overall roto awesomeness. (Note: Risto went immediately after my Simmonds pick.)

    6. (71) Trouba , D
    Another category stuffer on D. Was targeting either Shattenkirk or Trouba this round as Shattenkirk was taken earlier. Trouba provides really good value in this scorning setup and I want to start to build my D with value pics.

    7. (74) Getzlaf C
    Was either Getz or Perry at this selection and opted for Getz – good value and category coverage.

    8. (95) Johanson C
    Had Johansen, Krug, Voracek, Lucic in my queue and so did everyone else. Johansen remained so this was an easy one.

    9. (98) Kardri C
    Wanted a D-man to start filling out my D-corp but wasn’t happy with value of candidates so took Kadri – again, he’s a player that provides great category coverage/value in this set up.

    10. (119) Palat LW
    Another solid roto contributor. Exactly the type of player I target in rounds 10-12 and he should do well this year.

    11. (122) Palmieri RW
    Looking at a solid RW to continue building depth at wing. Have Palmieri, Foligno, Eckbad, Taffoli Provorov and Maroon in my queue and want 2 of them in this round and next. Palmieri checks all the boxes and Jersey will have a nice top line.

    12. (143) Maroon LW
    Provides similar value as Lucic but can be had much later and rides shotgun with McDavid.

    13. (146) Leddy D
    Leddy’s a quiet but solid producer who will push for 50 points. Had him or Provorov targeted for this round as I only had 2 D-men on my roster. Provorov was taken earlier so Leddy it is!

    14. (167) Reimer G
    Was waiting for my 3rd goalie selection – preferably a solid time share or quality back-up. My trigger point was waiting for one of these guys to be picked (like a Luongo/Reimer) and then act. Saw that Luongo was picked this round by Mark’s team so it was time act the next turn. Reimer will should get 40 starts – more if / when Luongo gets injured – and will help maximize my goalie starts.

    15. (170) N. Ritchie LW
    All about value now as my basic positional needs are covered. Ritchie is someone I like to target for later rounds as my last LW. A HIT machine with decent upside who will improve his offensive numbers from last year. May have snagged him a round or early, but can’t wait/hope on someone you really want being there later.

    16. (191) McAvoy
    With only 3 defenders, the pickings were getting slim and slimmer. I had both McAvoy and Neal in my queue and my need at D was greater than what Neal could provide (although he’s great value at this late round territory). McAvoy has great upside and they’ll ride him early on with additional PPP opportunity given Krug’s injury.

    17. (194) Kesler C
    Yes he’s injured but when he returns he immediately slots as a high value center. Given the names / filler remaining at this stage of game, I’m happy to him as a high-impact player in January.

    18. (215) Vatanen D
    Same story as the Kesler selection but with a more immediate return. He’ll slot in as nice mid-range defender when he returns from injury and I’ll just need to fill-in with a more of a streamer option until that time.

    19. (218) Panik RW/LW
    Looking at a D-man but figured the names I wanted could wait a few more rounds. Panik is the kind of player I like in this league for his cross the board coverage and his dual-eligibility is an added plus.

    20. (239) Manson D
    A streamer to fill in until Vatanen returns. Provides outstanding HIT coverage while not killing me in other categories.

    21. (242) Nash RW/LW
    Looking for players with value / upside at this point on. Nash should hit 20G with decent peripherals and has dual-eligibility.

    22. (262) Budaj G
    My Vas insurance policy along with a solid spot play. He demonstrated last year that he’s a capable fill-in and nails down my ability to max out my goalie stats. Grab now before the run on back-up goalies starts.

    23. (266) Bjorkstrand RW
    Nice offensive upside with low risk.

    24. (287) Beaulieu D
    Stepping into a nice situation in BUF and should see time on the 2nd PP unit. Good upside and little risk.

    25. (290) Bjork LW
    A flyer pick with high upside. If he sticks with the B’s it will be on a scoring line.


    Very happy with my draft and I’m positioned to compete with a balanced team. No glaring needs but will look to do some tweaking, waiver wire working and potential trading to push for the top. When my injury ward returns (Kesler & Vatanen) I’ll get an immediate roster upgrade.

    My team “Lord of the Rinks”:
    C Getzlaf, Johansen, Kadri, Kesler
    LW Palat, Maroon, N. Ritchie, Panik (RW/LW), Bjork
    RW Pavelski, (C/RW), Simmonds, Palmieri, Nash (LW/RW), Bjorkstrand
    D Burns, Trouba, Leddy, McAvoy, Beaulieu, Vatanen, Manson
    G Andersen, Vasilevskiy, Reimer, Budaj
    2012 DobberHockey Hall of Fame - Player's Category

  6. #36
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by Kofax View Post
    Any chance we can get some Temek projections for the Pro Leagues?
    I was thinking I'd do both Pro leagues and all Entry ones at the same time. Pro Wales hasn't drafted yet and I don't have the full draft results for Entry leagues yet, but I should get the projections done before the season starts.

  7. #37
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post
    I was thinking I'd do both Pro leagues and all Entry ones at the same time. Pro Wales hasn't drafted yet and I don't have the full draft results for Entry leagues yet, but I should get the projections done before the season starts.
    You the man! Looking forward to it.

  8. #38
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post
    Last Resort

    C Stepan, O'Reilly, J.Staal, Brassard
    LW Ovechkin, Forsberg, Hall, Konecny
    RW Pastrnak, Radulov, Aho, Meier
    D Letang, Werenski, Krug, Muzzin, Petry, Nurse
    G Allen, Darling
    BN Saros, Dell, Fiala, Chabot, DeBrincat

    Team is pretty light on C as is pretty typical for my teams and strong on wings and defense. Goaltending is a little more risky than I would have preferred, but at least I got two high end backups to mitigate the risk a little bit. 3rd starter with upside like Raanta would have been preferred though. Team should do pretty well across the board in skater categories and should be competitive in W and GAA, but SVS could be a bit of a problem. All in all fairly happy as I managed to get a lot of players I wanted in spots I planned on so I'd say I'd give myself B+ as a draft mark.

    Projected Standings

    Team Skater pts Goalie pts Total pts
    Last Resort 66 25 91
    ***Coming Soon*** 38 33 71
    Lord of the Rinks 43 24 67
    Horrorfan TBD 40 22 62
    Maroons 50 11 61
    Yellow Dogs 39 20 59
    The Comish 35 19 54
    Beavers 37 16 53
    The Eh Team 25 27 52
    Mario's Team 33 17 50
    Mark's Team 31 14 45
    The Jobbers 31 6 37

    Maroons and The Jobbers are not projected to hit 164 GP by my projections so that pretty much kills them in goalie stats as two of the categories are W and SVS.
    I look forward to defying these projections and finishing in the top 5. With three starters (Dubnyk, Bishop, and Fleury), only a serious injury will prevent me from getting 164 GP at the goalie position.
    -----------------

    LEAGUE: keeper -- 6 keepers per year, no farm; roto; 10 managers, 18-man rosters; 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 1 UTIL, 2 G, 5 Bench; limits of 99 games per skater position & 82 games per goalie position; daily roster moves; max 100 waiver wire transactions per year; scoring categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPP, SOG, DEF (points by d-men), W, GAA, SA%, and SV.

    ROSTER:

    C: Draisaitl* (LW), Dubois, Nelson
    LW: Svechnikov* (RW), Hagel
    RW: Kucherov*, Tarasenko, Wilson, Stone, Laine, Reinhart, P. Kane (IR)
    D: Fox*, Karlsson*, Chabot (IR), Faulk, Martinez
    G:: Vasilevskiy*, Vanecek, Adin, Knight (IR)

    * = 2023 keepers

  9. #39
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by rooneypoo View Post
    I look forward to defying these projections and finishing in the top 5. With three starters (Dubnyk, Bishop, and Fleury), only a serious injury will prevent me from getting 164 GP at the goalie position.
    Seems like there's something wrong with the leagues draft result page as it seems like several teams have swapped places after the 1st round in the listings (you can see it from horrorfan's post in the opening post too). So 4 teams are mostly incorrect including yours so I guess I have to properly fix them this time around.

  10. #40
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    The Wolverine

    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post
    Seems like there's something wrong with the leagues draft result page as it seems like several teams have swapped places after the 1st round in the listings (you can see it from horrorfan's post in the opening post too). So 4 teams are mostly incorrect including yours so I guess I have to properly fix them this time around.
    Thanks for spotting that. I'll fix it.

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    The Wolverine

    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Strange, there is something wrong on the draft page - the order is the same as I have shown. Here's a screenclip I took from the draft results page:



    What I don't get is that, for example, The Eh Team has the players it says it has (looking at first three rounds), but why is it in that order? Did anyone notice anything strange in the draft?

  12. #42
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    Strange, there is actually something wrong on the actual draft page - the order is the same as I have shown. Here's a screenclip:



    What I don't get is that, for example, The Eh Team has the players it says it has (looking at first three rounds), but why is it in that order? Did anyone notice anything strange in the draft?
    Yeah, the players are correct, just in wrong order so I am assuming it's just results page that's wrong. I don't remember anyone saying anything during the draft and can't be possible that everyone would miss that 4 teams swapped places mid-draft.

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    I remember Stamkos going where the Eh team should have been picking right after Karlsson. No idea why the results page is messed up though... That's very strange!
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post
    Yeah, the players are correct, just in wrong order so I am assuming it's just results page that's wrong. I don't remember anyone saying anything during the draft and can't be possible that everyone would miss that 4 teams swapped places mid-draft.
    Yeah that's likely the case. I also double checked the other league draft pages and they're all ok.

    I'll fix my draft results sheet and re-post it.

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I remember Stamkos going where the Eh team should have been picking right after Karlsson. No idea why the results page is messed up though... That's very strange!
    Indeed that's very strange, and thanks for confirming.

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