2017/18 Dobber Pro - Wales League

[ChilePuck]

Well, I was in the middle of the pack and doing well with my Allen/Hutton handcuff - unfortunately the Blues have only won 3 of their last 20 games thus basically sinking my goalie CATS.

My 1-2 pick of Seguin-Benn hasnt paid off this year. Oh well, it was a risk-reward type move.

In the bottom 4 now, so looks like I will be back down into the Entry League next year. I wont give up though!!

Interesting how we have grouped into top 4, middle 4, and bottom 4.

Good luck to all in the coming weeks !!

[horrorfan]

In the bottom 4 now, so looks like I will be back down into the Entry League next year. I wont give up though!!

FYI bottom 2 in each Pro league get relegated, not bottom 4. You can read the full details if you click on 'Info' in my signature and open the attachment on the first post.

[Pengwin7]

Mercy, our league has gotten super-duper-extra tight at the top.
Four teams have been fluxing between 70-75pts for the last week.
Even 2Ruutu & Samson are close enough to strike late!
Gonna be a great finish!
(Except, I realized yesterday that I shouldn't have been benching so many goalies - with CGY's Smith now back, I'm forced to make more Lundqvist,NYR starts - ugh.)

[horrorfan]

Standings update - March 25, 2018:

[Pengwin7]

Tight in the Wales for top three spots:

1. Junky Blue Saab 79.0
2. Don't Panic 77.5
3. Lonny B Magic 76.0

My wife can verify I exclaimed "Nooooooooooo...." twice in a 5min span.
I'm holding onto about 3pts in goalie wins... narrowly... whole pack of dogs chasing me.
Had Lundqvist with a 3-2 lead on Washington heading towards the last minute (game was on NBC).

Then, BOOM - Eller scores (Pionk, wtf.)
In OT, BOOM - Kuz scores.
"No win for you!" said in my Soup-Nazzi to Lundqvist voice.

Coupling that with a Sunday 2nd period PHI-Lyon (8sv) pull and a Monday 1st period NYR-Georgiev pull (3sv)... I then lost my pacing lead to win Saves.
Ugh. It's painful.
And who knows what's up with my injured Philly duo of Neuvirth & Elliott but it sure would be nice if they could get me a win next week!

Hang on boys... hang on....


[props to my boy 4T2 for turning his own +/- season around... nice.work. (slow clap) ]

[ChilePuck]

Tight in the Wales is an understatement:

Junky Blue Saab - 77.5
Don't Panic - 77.5
Lonny Bohonos magic - 76.5

Will anyone make any moves this sunday??

[4T2]

Tight in the Wales for top three spots:

1. Junky Blue Saab 79.0
2. Don't Panic 77.5
3. Lonny B Magic 76.0

My wife can verify I exclaimed "Nooooooooooo...." twice in a 5min span.
I'm holding onto about 3pts in goalie wins... narrowly... whole pack of dogs chasing me.
Had Lundqvist with a 3-2 lead on Washington heading towards the last minute (game was on NBC).

Then, BOOM - Eller scores (Pionk, wtf.)
In OT, BOOM - Kuz scores.
"No win for you!" said in my Soup-Nazzi to Lundqvist voice.

Coupling that with a Sunday 2nd period PHI-Lyon (8sv) pull and a Monday 1st period NYR-Georgiev pull (3sv)... I then lost my pacing lead to win Saves.
Ugh. It's painful.
And who knows what's up with my injured Philly duo of Neuvirth & Elliott but it sure would be nice if they could get me a win next week!

Hang on boys... hang on....


[props to my boy 4T2 for turning his own +/- season around... nice.work. (slow clap) ]

Unbelievably tight race. I was away without internet for the last week and was pretty happy to find myself still in the race when I got back!

And thanks for the props Pengwin7. I was -63 on February 9, can't believe I've climbed up to +9 since then.

[Pengwin7]

Letang (-13) and Weber (-7) are not what I had hoped for in the +/- department.
My team's -21 is also a tad back...

+86 this morning for me! 2nd place now in +/-, I focused on it hard but didn't think I could actually overhaul that cat.
That's over +100 change since late November!
One week to go for the J.B.S... still trying to hang in there.



My team has an INSANE stat day Sunday.
Started with an epic four player performance in PHI-BOS... 1g,5a,+9 for Konecny,Voracek,Ghost,Backes!!!
That game alone vaulted me from 78.0pts to 81.0pts (up 1 in A, up 2 in +/-)

I wired in three players last night (McGinn-FLA, Acciari-BOS, Wingels-BOS) so that I'd have four (w/Backes-BOS, if he plays) for the lone Sunday game.
And hopefully adding Mrazek-PHI, gives me an option for a key lock goalie win in the Saturday night NYR-PHI match-up.

All that overthinking and I miscounted my RW gp... looks like I can't even max out! Ugh. Games left unplayed on table, big mistake.

[4T2]

All that overthinking and I miscounted my RW gp... looks like I can't even max out! Ugh. Games left unplayed on table, big mistake.

I hear ya man, I mis-ranked my WW pickups for yesterday and ended up with Domi and Strome when I really wanted Butcher and Chychrun. Glad I snagged Raanta though but mis-read the market on him. I figured he'd be a hot commodity for guys trying to get their goalie games in. But now I'm screwed and will be leaving at least 4 D games on the table which could have swung things in a league this tight!

[horrorfan]

Standings update - April 2, 2018:

1 Junky Blue Saab 81
2 Lonny Bohonos magic 77.5
3 Don't Panic 77
4 The Drew/Carey Show 69.5
5 2toRuutu2toTootooToo 64
6 Samson's Mullet 63.5
7 theslymonkey's Team 51
8 ChilePucks 50.5
9 Sabrecats 49.5
10 The IR's Finest 43.5
11 Ol' Dirty Backes 37.5
11 French Toast Mafia 37.5

[horrorfan]

Just a heads up that from tomorrow I will be away for a week with limited online access. I will confirm final standings, promotion/relegation details etc. following my return. Good luck this final weekend.

Leaders' update:

1 Junky Blue Saab 79.5
2 Lonny Bohonos magic 78
3 Don't Panic 76
4 The Drew/Carey Show 69.5

[Pengwin7]

the JBS still holding on.
One more big Saturday of games to get through.

JBS Possible Point Swings over final Fri/Sat/Sun:
G... possible -1 there... 328 (me), 323... holding on there but just about every team has 18 skaters for Saturday, I only have 14 having maxed out my C last weekend.
+/-... possible +2 there... +82, +79, +78 (me). My BIG benefit here is that I have four players for Sunday FLA v BOS and I can choose to sit or start them depending on where I am in +/- after SAT games.
SOG... possible -1 there... 3652 (me), 3635... gotta fend off Drew/Carey who has been charging hard with Bergeron/Eichel back.
HIT... possible +1 there... 1793, 1788 (me)... I do have four FLA/BOS RWers for Sunday... and I claimed Ryan Reaves for a late-Saturday night roster insert if my SOG is in good enough shape by 10pm EST.
W... possible +0.5/-1.5 there... 81, 81 (me), 80, 79... fortunately the 80-team is GPmax... so I can either go for lock win in PHI-NYR game on Saturday or try for two, owning all TOR, PHI, NYR goalies.
SV... possible +1 there... 4703, 4660 (me)... 44sv gives me the top SV count. Can I get that on Saturday... I should... but teams might pull a guy for rest. I'm pretty sure I'm gonna roll Elliott(PHI)-Lundqvist(NYR).

Ultimately - I set my team up for the last week to have three flexible strategy moves:
1) to have the four players on Sunday for sit/start +/- decisions based on where I am in standings. (This includes Acciari & Wingels-DTD, so I must remember I can gain some HIT, but not necessarily SOG)
2) the NYR/PHI/TOR goalies gives me the opportunity to lock in one win or go after two.
3) I have 13 wingers for 8 spots... so that I can make West Coast SOG (Keller) vs. HIT (Reaves) decision starts around 10pm EST.

It would be pretty sweet to have 1st place and 80+pts.
Really, really micro-managed my team in this league very hard all season in hopes to get up to Expert/Stanley next year.
Barring a USMNT-soccer statistical fiasco failure (full -3.5 drop to 76pts, coupled with Don't Panic having good night)... I should qualify.

Good luck to Lonny(2nd) & Don't Panic(3rd) in their quests for top two spots!

[Kofax]

Nice analysis Peng. Always impressed with the amount of work you put into the planning! Multiple routes to pulling out the victory should help keep you up top.

In Campbell Pro I think 1/2 are locked up with 78 vs 77.5 points and third trailing at 71.5. Only thing to be decided is who takes 1st. We're both close to max and will have the full slate Saturday to finish off the season with multiple avenues for either of us to gain or lose. Will just come down to how the game plays out!

[Pengwin7]

Final Standings in the Campbell:

1 Junky Blue Saab 83.5
2 Lonny Bohonos magic 78.5
3 Don't Panic 75.5
...
4 The Drew/Carey Show 69.5
...
5 2toRuutu2toTootooToo 64
6 Samson's Mullet 62
...
7 ChilePucks 53
8 theslymonkey's Team 49.5
9 The IR's Finest 45.5
10 Sabrecats 45
...
11 French Toast Mafia 40
12 Ol' Dirty Backes 36


A fun season, with all but two GMs checking in daily for most of the season.
Congrats to the Junky Blue Saab (me, P7) and Lonny Bohonos magic (Greg) on finishing 1st & 2nd and earning promotions to Expert-Stanley League next year.
Great season by Don't Panic (Gabe/4T2) - who probably, statistically, had a top two season, but finished just shy in a couple key categories.
Drew/Carey Show (wassink) also had a really good team and probably would've been top two had Eichel & Bergeron & Crawford missed considerable time... also a victim of a depleted Habs team where he owned Price.

Thanks to all for playing!
Should be a competitive group again next year!

[Pengwin7]

A round-up my team, the Champs!, Junky Blue Saab.

I had a really good pick in this league - the 4th overall... and where I passed on Alex Ovechkin in the RHRS... I decided to hedge my best and invest in him for this league.
The previous year, I won an LOTR league going with Ovechkin as my 1st rounder... then a stockpile of great D... then value-sniping the last of the solid goalies.
So... I decided to do it in this league too.

There was some luck too, significant luck, as there sometimes IS.

1-04 Ovechkin. In this format, he's a SOG/HIT beast, the two high-count statistics and of course also brings G, PPP, +/-. And LW is thin. So this was good fortune to have this pick spot. Additionally, one team missed the draft, Ol' Dirty Backes, at #5, which meant every other round I would see the top Yahoo rank player be auto-selected... which is an advantage when drafting... to know that. Last August, I had read a book called "A Man Called Ove"... and yes, I since learned that they are not pronounced the same but the main character drives Blue Saabs and I just liked the ring of that team name. Junky.Blue.Saab.

2nd/3rd/4th/5th. Hedman, then Letang, then Subban, then Weber. Hedman, Subban finished 1-2 in D-man performance. Letang was OK, big minus guy... and Weber got injured. Everybody had some bad luck, everybody this was mine.

6th round. I'm licking my licks as Andrei Vasilevskiy was still there, but he was snagged by eventual 2nd place team: Lonny Bohonos. The consolation prize was still being able to take Frederik Anderson - and the Leafs both WON and gave up a ton of shots on net. I ended up winning SV, mostly on TOR letting so many through on Anderson. And once I got above GP pace at goalie, I hedged Anderson with McElhinney - which was important down the stretch.

7th round. Lundqvist. Though NYR ended poorly, Henrik was actually fabulous in the middle 1/3rd of the season. And I rolled up most of those wins. Those two Gs led my workload there, as I finished 1st in SV... fifth in W.
These two goalies where the luck was in play. Just having ONE team miss the draft, especially right next to me, allowed me to speculate on goalies falling. I track teams G-drafting as they go, especially watching teams inside me at the turn... and knew I could get both Andersen and Lundqvist here in 6/7... later than they went in any of the 7 Dobber tier drafts. That's good fortune, but also - some credit for me in spotting the good fortune and maximizing it.

8th-14th was full of very solid picks. Voracek, Toews, Gost, Elliott, Eberle, Muzzin, Stepan. All bested their draft spot, especially my PP1 Flyers: Voracek and Gost. Even nabbing Elliott was great, as I late-drafted Neuvirth and should've had all 82gp from PHI had they not BOTH gotten injured - some bad luck, but I intentionally did pace over at goalie GP to be ready for a given goalie injury at any time.

15th-25th was actually full of picks I'd drop. Though Orlov patched my D6 decently when Weber went out.

My key pick was Clayton Keller in the 18th. Even when he got slow in the middle 1/3rd, I stayed with him and he & Stepan were gold down the stretch.


My best asset this year was NOT making trades and really doing a fantastic job on the waiver wire.
I was +20 at D gp at points in the season... and considered dealing guys... but ultimately decided that an injury could hamper me... and Weber and Muzzin eventually went down and I was glad I had the surplus.
Same thing at G, where I was up +10... and had decent offers. But I kept all my surplus and it was key once the PHI goalies went down.

I spent $22 on Boone Jenner in October, and just $1 on David Backes in November... and those two propelled me to 2nd place finish in HITS, while providing some good SOG & PPP.


Jenner, down the stretch, was an absolute beast in +/-.
+/- was a category where I was about -20 something in November... and chugged all the way up to a finishing T-first place at +84!!!
[And, I even made great moves and then cancelled them. On the 2nd last Sunday, I had intentionally pre-planned a max-out of my Cgp, able to then drop all four (Toews, RNH, M.Backlund, Stepan) to stockpile wingers. I had four guys for the FLA/BOS... if I needed them. But on Sunday morning, I saw that I had a T-1st in +/-, so I took them out of my line-up. The four guys actually went a combined -2, which would have cost me 1pt... though they did have 1g,1a,4sog,6hit.. so those stats were there if I had needed them in tight standings, but I did bench them finishing with 4 RW games unused. For those curious, when I spent $9 on Frank Vatrano in March, it was expecting that Yahoo! would open up the last Sunday game for stats. Oddly, by the time they did - they took their sweet time - I had given up on Vatrano... who had 1g,1a on Sunday!]

As for other smart waiver moves:
I snagged DeBrincat for $10 while hot in November.
And I paid $8 for Konecny in late January when he was promoted to PHI line #1... and he was INCREDIBLE.
I rode spot starts from Rittich(CGY), McElhinney(TOR), Georgiev(NYR), Lyon & finally one from Mrazek (PHI).

By micro-managing and constantly checking stat pace...
I just eeked out points in SV (12/12), Wins (8/12), SOG (12/12), and Hits (11/12).
I used pacing trackers all year to determine what I needed to do to pass the early maxing-out Sabrecats in both A (10/12) and PPP (9/12).

It was one of the first years where all my in-season work really paid off!

Up to the Experts League next year!!!