Trade Away Michael Thomas?

[dejeanneret]

Alright folks. I know that there is some major Michael Thomas love here and all around the interwebs. But here's the situation and an offer I just received that I really could use some input on (apologize for the length/complexity of this post -- rep will be given).

This is a long time 14 team dynasty league. We keep 10 this year. Next year, that's getting bumped to keep 11. Because we keep so many players, we only have a 4 round draft. It's not entirely rookies, but the top rooks certainly tend to be the top targets each year.

Our league settings are bit unique, and change is on the way.

Basic settings are that it's a half point PPR league. 1 pt. 10 yards rushing/receiving. Bonuses at 100+ yards rushing, or 125+ yards receiving. Bonuses for longer TDs.

Right now, we start

1 QB
2 RB
3 WR/TE
1 K
1 DST

Here's where the change is coming. Beginning 2 years from now, we're bringing back a dedicated TE slot, and moving to dedicated WR slots. So, when that takes effect, our starting lineup will be

1 QB
2 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 K
1 DST

I compete yearly (I've won 2 of the past 4 years, and 4 of the past 6). I'm fairly good and deep at WR for a 14 teamer. But my team needs some work this year at RB due to the effect of age, injuries, etc. and my inability to replenish sufficiently on the go the past 2 years.

As it stands now, my RBs are:
David Johnson
Spencer Ware
Tevin Coleman
Jamaal Charles.

As it stands now, my WRs are:
AJ Green
Michael Thomas
Allen Robinson
Martavis Bryant
Brandon Marshall
Josh Doctson

I love this year's rookie RB class and have really been working the phones trying to get the #2 pick. The initial ask was a young high end WR and my 1st round pick next year. I'm not keen on trading away my 1st rounder next season. After some back and forth, I countered with Allen Robinson for the #2. The other GM (in my view) is irrationally way down on Allen Robinson, but whatever, I get it.

So he's responded with:

My Michael Thomas for the #2 (Round 1, pick 2) and #17 (Round 2, pick 3).

I'd be assured of landing one of Fournette or Mixon. The second round pick is harder to project, but could possibly net me someone like Jamaal Williams, D'Onta Foreman, Joe Williams, Hunter Henry, O.J. Howard, David Njoku, Duke Johnson, Kenny Golladay, Zay Jones. And I'd still have my own 1st rounder (pick 11) to play with as well.

I know Michael Thomas is awesome. But I snagged him in the 3rd round last year, and my starting WR trio would still be quite good (Green, M. Bryant, Robinson/Marshall). Additionally, I do have Josh Doctson waiting in the wings (who I'm not writing off just yet as eventually being Michael Thomas' equal ).

Thoughts?

[2014olympicgold]

You have the best RB (especially in PPR), a WR in Green who was putting up monster numbers before an injury, and MT who put up great numbers being a WR2, now he's a WR1 in a pass happy offense.

Ware may not be amazing or anything special, but your top 3 guys are going to help offset anything. Plus a guy like MT will come out of the gate better than Mixon or Fournette and you can do a trade of like Allen Robinson or Bryant for them. Bryant is going to be solid too. I rather look at this midseason and go do a trade then, because rookie hype is big right now with RBs.

Heck, MT for Zeke could be an even trade this yr.

[dejeanneret]

Thanks for the reply. Here's another thing that's been rattling around in my head.

Let's say I do this trade. Maybe I turnaround and go after a guy like Gronk or Cooper. Something like my 1st rounder (pick 11) and a guy like Marshall or Doctson or Ware for Gronk or Cooper.

The guy who has Gronk, his team is awful. He has the first overall pick this year, but needs a ton of help at both RB and receiver. Let's assume he takes one of the young RBs #1. He's still nowhere near competing. So maybe turning an older asset into another first round pick plus a WR appeals to him?

The guy who has Cooper, he's a win-now team. He owns Brady. At receiver, he has Jordy, Baldwin, Cooper, Graham and Eifert. But his RBs are weak, they are incredibly hard to come by in a 14 team league, and he currently doesn't own a pick until #26 (he traded away his first rounder last year for Lat Murray (ouch)). So maybe getting a first round pick and a serviceable RB like Ware appeals to him?

[rataylor22]

I think if you keep your RBs as is and target Kareem Hunt with #11 overall, you should be fine. I think you lose the trade as is and I would target a better RB for Thomas if that's the route you want to go.

[rataylor22]

I would not trade Ware+#11 for Cooper. I would probably do that trade for Gronk, but why would he accept anything but Docston, and even then I'm not sure he would accept. If he's smart, he should want Thomas. I'm not sure you have the assets to pull off both trades.

[dejeanneret]

I think if you keep your RBs as is and target Kareem Hunt with #11 overall, you should be fine. I think you lose the trade as is and I would target a better RB for Thomas if that's the route you want to go.

Fair point. And I'd definitely be content with Hunt if I could get him at #11, by really doubt he makes it past pick #6 or #7. There's a huge premium on RBs in this league and they tend to go fast and furious (hence someone paying a 1st for Lat Murray in a trade last year). In addition, another RB needy team with a savvy GM already owns two picks before my #11.

[PenguinHunter]

Original question

You are trading a 1st/2nd round talent in Thomas

for an 11th round and 12th round pick.

IF you consider it from this angle it does not look like a good deal. I know you are getting a top rookie.. but as mentioned above they are not as guaranteed to start as quick as Thomas.

[dejeanneret]

Update:

Been exploring secondary deals I could do if I traded away Michael Thomas. The Amari owner really doesn't want to part with him. He rejected my spit balling offer of Ware and #11 for Cooper, suggesting that he'd want Ware and a high 1st round pick which I don't think is really worth it for me.

But he countered with the following:

(1) Baldwin for Ware straight up, or
(2) Jordy for "slightly less value than Cooper" -- which I interpret as Ware and #11. (Maybe I could open by trying to push that #11 pick, which is my first rounder, to my second rounder, but doubt he goes for that).

So under this bizarre construct, the net deals could be

(A) My Michael Thomas and Spencer Ware for their Fournette/Mixon, Doug Baldwin and pick 17; or
(B) My Michael Thomas, Spencer Ware and pick 11 for their Fournette/Mixon, Jordy and pick 17.

Thoughts?

Per my earlier post, I've also floated an offer of pick 11 and Josh Doctson for Gronk to that GM. He's slower, so no response yet.

[2014olympicgold]

Just keep MT and draft Hunt. Hunt will be likely just as good eventually as some of these other guys.

[dejeanneret]

Just keep MT and draft Hunt. Hunt will be likely just as good eventually as some of these other guys.

I'd like to do just that. But no way Hunt is there at 11 in this league.

[2014olympicgold]

I'd like to do just that. But no way Hunt is there at 11 in this league.

I think you're focusing too much on trading away MT for a hype RB (Fournette/Mixon). Guys like Hunter Henry (who you said should be available at round2) has the talent, he just needs Murray to go down (which no one would be surprised at).

I think you have these WR that will only gain trade value in the season (Doctson, Bryant, AR {can't get much lower trade value right now}) that if you want this deal, just wait.

Heck even Marshall could have an insane yr with big RZ TD potential.

My advice is wait a bit, these trades are just like in hockey where people were selling the moon for the top 2 picks just to get Matthews/Laine in the reg season during a slump or injury for way cheaper. I say just waaaaiiittt

[dejeanneret]

I think you're focusing too much on trading away MT for a hype RB (Fournette/Mixon). Guys like Hunter Henry (who you said should be available at round2) has the talent, he just needs Murray to go down (which no one would be surprised at).

Fair points, for sure. I certainly am chasing this a bit. It's just a really deep league and RBs tend to be exceedingly hard to come by.

By way of example, other than the rooks, the best backs available are Marshawn, Duke Johnson and McFadden. Even guys like Gillislee, Terrance West, Ken Dixon, Rob Kelley, Jonathan Williams, Theo Riddick, James White, Devontae Booker ... all rostered.

So, for example, Derrick Henry was a high first round pick last year (5th overall) smartly by the DeMarco Murray owner. So he's got them perfectly cuffed up and won't be letting go -- at least not without being compensated significantly. (In my post above, I was referring to Hunter Henry (TE for the Chargers) possibly being available in the upcoming second round.)

[2014olympicgold]

Fair points, for sure. I certainly am chasing this a bit. It's just a really deep league and RBs tend to be exceedingly hard to come by.

By way of example, other than the rooks, the best backs available are Marshawn, Duke Johnson and McFadden. Even guys like Gillislee, Terrance West, Ken Dixon, Rob Kelley, Jonathan Williams, Theo Riddick, James White, Devontae Booker ... all rostered.

So, for example, Derrick Henry was a high first round pick last year (5th overall) smartly by the DeMarco Murray owner. So he's got them perfectly cuffed up and won't be letting go -- at least not without being compensated significantly. (In my post above, I was referring to Hunter Henry (TE for the Chargers) possibly being available in the upcoming second round.)

Oh my bad. Well McFadden can be a good add for 6-7games.

What about guys like Marlon Mack, Jalen Richard, Charles Sims, Jamaal Williams, Burkhead, Samaje Perine, or DeAndre Washington?

[rataylor22]

If you want to make either deal, go ahead. My advice personally isn't going to change. I don't think either trade is good for you.

[dejeanneret]

Thanks for all the input, folks. I really do appreciate it. Allow me to put a bow on this one:

So I ended up making two trades --

1) Michael Thomas for #2 and #17 overall; and
2) Spencer Ware for Doug Baldwin

And let me tell you, some of my league mates are PISSED! I mean, they're really worked up.

Why, you ask?

Well, they can't BELIEVE that the other GM traded me the #2 and #17 for only Michael Thomas. A few of them are just beside themselves. Saying that he has a history of making lousy deals. Just handed me championships for years to come given that I'll be able to draft one of the top rookie RBs and a whatever else at #17. Yada yada.

So I guess the moral of the story here is: know your league.

They're going way overboard obviously, but I think it proves just how shortsighted some are. Can already see that there's likely to be some late potential gems available late in the draft again this year given how some of my league mates seem to value things.

Thanks again for the discussion everyone! I've rep'd those I can and will circle back to the others once I'm permitted to hit you again.

Really appreciate it!