Sidney Crosby: the consensus #2 for pts leagues ... or is he?

[StuntMan12]

Sorry for making so many threads but I had this on my mind tonight and wanted to see what you guys thought of it.


Looking at the statistics a little closer...

Ok, I think the majority of hockey fans can agree that Connor McDavid is the #1 guy to own in 1 year pts leagues. Now with that aside, who comes #2, #3, #4? here is where things get interesting...or is it?

There are 3 guys who came close to eachother in pts last year. That is Sidney Crosby - PIT, Patrick Kane - CHI, Nikita Kucherov - TB. Probably the consensus tells us that it should go Crosby, Kane THEN Kucherov .... or should we? Let's dive into the stats a little closer.

Sidney Crosby (PIT) - Sidney Crosby last year broke out (from his usual norm the past 5 or so years) and scored 44 goals in 75 games to win the Rocket Richard Trophy. He took 255 shots or 3.4 shots per game. Previous 2 years Crosby averaged 3.1 shots/game (2015/16), and 3.08 shots/gamae (2014/15). On top of seeing a slight spike in shots, he seen a spike in shooting percentage which was at a 2nd career high of 17.3% which is very high - note he had 14.5% last season, and 11.8% the year before, 13.9% the year before that. Ok he is a very good shooter but is 17+% sustainable? Not really. So what is a sustainable shooting percentage for Sir Sidney Crosby? His career average is 14.7%. So let's assume he goes back down to 14.5% and shoots a total of 250 shots which seems some-what reasonable, that would equal out to 37 goals. Now with that behind us, now his assists ..... hmm how many assists for the best player in the world must you ask? Let's look at his 2014/15 assist toals = 56, 2015/16 assist totals = 49, 2016/17 assist totals = 45. Now he missed 7 games last season so he was on pace for 49 if he played 82 games. Looking at how Crosby is trending the past few years I think it is safe to say Crosby is good for 49 assists. With all things considered too, one would think we have to be cautious for a slight regression with as many games Crosby has played in the past couple years to keep of note.

	GP	G	A	PTS	FLOOR/CEILING
Sidney Crosby (PIT)	77	37	49	86	80/100

Patrick Kane (CHI) - Now to our 2nd case in point - Patrick Kane. Kane has been relatively healthy the past few years and we can assume he plays somewhere north of 80 games. I'll say 82 for good measure, now ... lets dive into the statistics here for a bit. Let's start off with his shots and shooting%, Kane for the past couple years he has been shooting on a 280 or so shots per season mark. His career shooting% average is 12.4% and last season he shot 11.6% which is a little uncharacteristic of the great Patrick Kane. Safe to say he will get about 260-280 shots, let's say he shoots 280 shots again at a 13% scoring rate which is fairly reasonable in my honest opinion which equals to 36 goals. Now with that behind us, lets look at his assists, now he was normally getting about 50 assists/82 games before Panarin came to the windy city, with Panarin - Kaner saw a spike in assists of 60 and 55, safe to assume with Panarin packing his bags and taking his talents to Columbus that he goes back to the 50 assist range which is fairly reasonable ....

	GP	G	A	PTS	FLOOR/CEILING
Patrick Kane (CHI)	82	36	50	86	75/100

Nikita Kucherov (TB) - Now with our last case study .... Nikita Kucherov. He broke out in 16/17 in a big way and scored 85 pts in 74 games for a 94 pt/ 82 game pace. Are you worried about his production this up coming season? Not me, not by taking a closer look at his numbers ... lets do that right now . Kucherov was normally shooting 200~ shots/season until last season we seen a spike in shots to 246/74 games which is on pace for 273 shots / 82 games. We can all agree that Kucherov is a better player than he was 2 years ago and loves to shoot the puck. Let's assume he stays healthy and plays 82 games. Let's be reasonable and assume he shoots 270 times at a career average of 14.4% which would equal to 39 goals, now his assists ... Kucherovs assists the last 3 seasons have been 45, 36, 36. So we seen a 9 assist increase in one year. He was on pace to get 50 assists if he played 82 games, now let's say he regresses back down to 47 assists which is fairly reasonable right? Which would give him...

	GP	G	A	PTS	FLOOR/CEILING
Nikita Kucherov (TB)	82	39	47	86	70/95

Just pointing out that maybe Crosby isn't the clear cut #2 player for pts leagues that people like me and many others thought, maybe it's a lot closer than many of us imagined. What do you guys think? Am I on to something or am I overthinking this. Maybe with Crosby's concussion history that maybe Kucherov and Kane might be safer options at this point. NOTE - IF IT LOOKS LIKE MY PROJECTIONS KEEP CHANGING IT'S BECAUSE THEY ARE. MY FINAL COPY WILL BE RELEASED LATER THIS MONTH AND WILL KEEP THEM AS THAT AND WILL KEEP THEM SAVED TO SEE HOW MANY PROJECTIONS I GET RIGHT.

[Axeman33]

Crosby and McDavid is still 1/2 for me in points only leagues.

[The Bottlenecker]

Crosby is still one of the top two point producers in the league. Some might even argue he can still challenge McDavid for #1 (not me), but he is at the very least #2.

[Pengwin7]

100 McDavid
...
90 Crosby
...
80s Others

Crosby is still top two.
Anything pushing somebody else into #2 is clickbait.
(Matthews is the next to challenge there, certainly not Pat Kane or Kucherov on an average-output basis)

[StuntMan12]

I remember before the start of last season, when I was at my $250 draft my buddy who I go for hockey advice all the time said not to pick Crosby at the 5th pick that this is an expensive league that to go with either a top goalie or Patrick Kane ... funny thing is he kept saying how Crosby is prone to getting injured and you want to go with a guy who is durable and build around him ... was a few days later or so Crosby went down in injury and he kept reminding me about what he said, was kind of funny (not that Crosby was injured) but how the whole thing played out. I think part of it is that he is an American and likes bugging me about Americans being better hockey players and them taking over the game of hockey lol. I keep telling him to post here because I think he has a lot to offer and is an old school player who had ECHL camp invites and opportunities to play overseas but turned them down for various reasons and a rep coach but says he doesn't have time for it. Being Canadian too I might feel bad if I had the 2nd pick and went with Kane or Kucherov ... heh

[RizzeeDizzee]

Crosby is the only non-McDavid forward whom I'd say has both at least a 50% chance at 90+ points and nearly a zero chance of less than 80 points if he plays all 82 games, so yes - I think he's still #2 overall.

[PenguinHunter]

I would go with Crosby #2 because nothing has changed for him. He is still the top centre and will still play with questionable wingers.

Both Kucherov and Kane will have major changes to deal with.

Kucherov - a healthy Stamkos, will that hinder or improve Kucherov's numbers this year?
Kane - Lost Panarin this off season, will this result in a slight decrease or not factor in at all?

[StuntMan12]

I would go with Crosby #2 because nothing has changed for him. He is still the top centre and will still play with questionable wingers.

Both Kucherov and Kane will have major changes to deal with.

Kucherov - a healthy Stamkos, will that hinder or improve Kucherov's numbers this year?
Kane - Lost Panarin this off season, will this result in a slight decrease or not factor in at all?

Understandable. Kucherov I'm not particularly worried about Stamkos' return as Kucherov last season played 16 games with him and this was his stat-line

	GP	G	A	PTS
Nikita Kucherov (TB)	16	8	13	21

If anything maybe this helps Kucherov's value .... hmm we'll see. I'll tell you this much I'm tempted at taking Kucherov at #2 but long ways to go before the season starts so maybe I'll clear my head by then .. hehe

[lucafen4]

points per game, there would have been no tie with Kane if Sid hadn't missed the first 7 games with a concussion. Likely the race would have been 100 - 98 - 89

[rataylor22]

I disagree the Crosby isn't the consensus #2. He's the only player in the league that before the season starts is a reasonable bet to challenge McDavid for the scoring race. Once the season starts, guys can get hot and who knows what happens, but pre-season Sid is the only other contender. Ultimately, yes I think you're overthinking this.

[ericdaoust]

Crosby's pts/game has always been 1.06 or better. Every year. He isn't subject to the ups and downs that others go through in their careers. That matters a lot.

[StuntMan12]

Kucherov is off to a great start. I hope he gets more points than Crosby now lol.

[forumname]

Crosby's pts/game has always been 1.06 or better. Every year. He isn't subject to the ups and downs that others go through in their careers. That matters a lot.

Sure he is. He's had 20 point swings from one year to the next, it's just that his peaks and valleys have been much higher than everyone else's. If you score 120 one year and only 100 the next, not many people are going to complain.

[hockeyrobot]

Until he clearly takes a step back....Sid is #2 in points only.

[skinnypete88]

IMO the only way Kucherov enters into this conversation is if we see a full season of him with Stamkos. Kind of to ericdaoust's point, Crosby is #2 until proven otherwise and will be so regardless of his linemates. Whereas Kuch and Kane need kind of a perfect season not just from themselves but from their linemates. A lot needs to go right for the #2 to be wrested from Sid's grasp.