Eastern Conference Final: Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa

[Kofax]

27 pages and no Sheik... crazy.

Are we sure about that?

#whoisreggiebarnes?

[lucafen4]

Are we sure about that?

nope but RB''s 12 posts doesn't = a full page on here.

[Kofax]

Just to be clear, I do have a soft spot for Ottawa; I really just do think that they drastically over performed this year. Will this team respond the same way to Boucher next year? Can Anderson continue to be a top-10ish goalie? Who will they lose in the expansion draft? Will players like Ryan or Brassard take a next step from what I consider a disastrous year? I hope I'm wrong, I just see this team taking a big step back next year.

This is a good post.

The Sens had a great run, analytics was against them the whole way, but they showed that analytics may have a hole when a team fully commits to a defensive, traplike system.

A lot of the question marks als_revenge stated are valid. Tampa had a disastrous second season under Boucher. History is not behind Anderson repeating his stellar season. The expansion draft shouldn't be any more painful for them than it would another team and they have some young up and coming players to fill holes.

It's also possible that having better learned the system and having seen it succeed that they buy in even more and Ryan and Brassard can manage to produce within it during the regular season and they once again excel.

I just have a the same nagging feeling as als_revenge though, that not everything will go their way next season and they falter.

[lucafen4]

This is a good post.

The Sens had a great run, analytics was against them the whole way, but they showed that analytics may have a hole when a team fully commits to a defensive, traplike system.

A lot of the question marks als_revenge stated are valid. Tampa had a disastrous second season under Boucher. History is not behind Anderson repeating his stellar season. The expansion draft shouldn't be any more painful for them than it would another team and they have some young up and coming players to fill holes.

It's also possible that having better learned the system and having seen it succeed that they buy in even more and Ryan and Brassard can manage to produce within it during the regular season and they once again excel.

I just have a the same nagging feeling as als_revenge though, that not everything will go their way next season and they falter.

I'm not even sure that's going to be their problem. TB, Fla & Tor will all be better - that alone is going to translate to Ottawa optically appearing to be worse, even if they're exactly the same. That's where the issue with Ott. lies from my viewpoint. I don't see them improving drastically next season. They are who they are. White/Chabot will not have a major impact on their seasonal results. Whereas the other 3 teams, are all expected to improve/bounce back from this past year and just be a lot better.

[Kofax]

I'm not even sure that's going to be their problem. TB, Fla & Tor will all be better - that alone is going to translate to Ottawa optically appearing to be worse, even if they're exactly the same. That's where the issue with Ott. lies from my viewpoint. I don't see them improving drastically next season. They are who they are. White/Chabot will not have a major impact on their seasonal results. Whereas the other 3 teams, are all expected to improve/bounce back from this past year and just be a lot better.

Another point stacked against them. It's hard to come up with a strong argument to suggest they'll be able to repeat the Cinderella run.

[2014olympicgold]

At the same time, teams like NYR and CBJ will be worse. Theoretically Washington too, they are playoff bound but a few losses here and there change point totals for other teams.

[lucafen4]

At the same time, teams like NYR and CBJ will be worse. Theoretically Washington too, they are playoff bound but a few losses here and there change point totals for other teams.

Wsh & CBJ being worse, just means Pitts will win the division & NYR will get a seed vs.wildcard. Carolina is the real wildcard team in terms of playoff birth.

[2014olympicgold]

Wsh & CBJ being worse, just means Pitts will win the division & NYR will get a seed vs.wildcard. Carolina is the real wildcard team in terms of playoff birth.

The games Caps/CBJ losing tho would be points given to another team. I'm not worried about them losing a playoff spot, it's the points they aren't getting anymore going to another team. Which hurts Ottawa too.

[lucafen4]

The games Caps/CBJ losing tho would be points given to another team. I'm not worried about them losing a playoff spot, it's the points they aren't getting anymore going to another team. Which hurts Ottawa too.

yup, cuz Ott won't be getting any of those points

[2014olympicgold]

yup, cuz Ott won't be getting any of those points

I’m pretty sure Ottawa did well against top teams in a season series (won the Rangers SS for sure). So they likely won’t be gaining any/much ground there?

[hockeyrobot]

Next year is the year of the Lightning.

[rataylor22]

That's true (I think); the Sen's radio program didn't get into details on this and I have a hard time finding reliable info on it.

I believe (but could be wrong) that the expansion rules require players with NMC to be automatically protected (unless they agree to waive it). Phaneuf had a NMC and Modified NTC with his deal in Toronto. On capfriendly, it says that the Senators agreed to maintain the Modified NTC when they acquired him, but it doesn't say whether they also decided to keep the NMC. (If a team does not agree to these things, the clauses are no longer valid).

I've seen Phaneuf listed on sites as having both NMC and NTC; same with Bobby Ryan (although it appears to be well established now that Ryan doesn't have a NMC)....

Capfriendly is reliable info.

He has to waive or be protected.

[rataylor22]

This is a good post.

The Sens had a great run, analytics was against them the whole way, but they showed that analytics may have a hole when a team fully commits to a defensive, traplike system.

A lot of the question marks als_revenge stated are valid. Tampa had a disastrous second season under Boucher. History is not behind Anderson repeating his stellar season. The expansion draft shouldn't be any more painful for them than it would another team and they have some young up and coming players to fill holes.

It's also possible that having better learned the system and having seen it succeed that they buy in even more and Ryan and Brassard can manage to produce within it during the regular season and they once again excel.

I just have a the same nagging feeling as als_revenge though, that not everything will go their way next season and they falter.

Of course analytics have a hole. They have massive holes in them because they're so rudimentary compared to what other sports have. Publicly available analytics have a long way to go before we put as much stock in them as we currently do.

[Kofax]

Of course analytics have a hole. They have massive holes in them because they're so rudimentary compared to what other sports have. Publicly available analytics have a long way to go before we put as much stock in them as we currently do.

Everything will have holes, but what I was getting at moreso is specifically what one of those wholes may be, i.e. a defensive traplike system, where the analytics will always undervalue a team. It's harder to develop these analytics in hockey as compared to other sports as it is far more team based than others, which is probably why it's taken so long to develop useful advanced stats. It is still nice to have something to work with to help with predictions compared to what there was previously.