Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

[BreadManPanarin]

The point is, that still wouldn't be in the Karlsson/Burns tier. That's literally the whole point of this entire argument. He has to have awesome peripherals AND be basically a point per game defenceman to be in that tier. Literally that is the entire freaking point. 60 points with great peripherals isn't the Burns/Karlsson tier. In your league, maybe. In general, no.

Point taken boss man. I made the mistake of assuming that "multi-cat" meant straight category based vs. weighted points for each category. Didn't realize I was way off base there.

Burns puts up a ton of points and shots, decent blocks, and not a lot of hits.
Karlsson put up a ton of points, an above average number of shots, a ton of blocks, and not a lot of hits.
So I figured if Provorov puts up an above average amount of points, above average amount of shots, above average amount of hits, and a ton of blocks, then he would just be a more well-rounded top tier guy than Karlsson or Burns. But for leagues that do not weight all of those categories equally, I absolutely understand that this would not be the case.

If emphasis is put on points, then he would need to produce Karlsson/Burns type points in order to be on Karlsson/Burns tier. I get it.

[The Iron Sheik]

there is also no Burns/Karlsson tier. Long term, Karlsson is in a tier by himself. Another SJ playoff loss and Burns will get reigned in.

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there is also no Burns/Karlsson tier. Long term, Karlsson is in a tier by himself.

[lucafen4]

there is also no Burns/Karlsson tier. Long term, Karlsson is in a tier by himself. Another SJ playoff loss and Burns will get reigned in.

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there is also no Burns/Karlsson tier. Long term, Karlsson is in a tier by himself.

Do you mean Stanley Cup Finals loss? cuz he's pushing for the Art Ross the year after a Cup Finals appearance.

In a 1 year fantasy draft, I'm taking Burns over Karlsson. They are a 1A 1B option in Fantasy hockey. Then there is Letang -- and then everyone else.

If Karlsson is in a tier by himself, that would be because he's stuck in a tier above Letang and Burns has moved a tier above. At least this year, Burns is above everyone else. The stats speak for themselves.

[BreadManPanarin]

there is also no Burns/Karlsson tier. Long term, Karlsson is in a tier by himself. Another SJ playoff loss and Burns will get reigned in.

I disagree with this, but I only look forward 3 years for fantasy purposes... maybe you are looking further.

In my league Burns is the most valuable skater this year. 20% more valuable than Ovechkin, and 40% more valuable than Karlsson.

For the next 3 years give me Burns over Karlsson easily.

[The Iron Sheik]

Do you mean Stanley Cup Finals loss? cuz he's pushing for the Art Ross the year after a Cup Finals appearance.

In a 1 year fantasy draft, I'm taking Burns over Karlsson. They are a 1A 1B option in Fantasy hockey. Then there is Letang -- and then everyone else.

If Karlsson is in a tier by himself, that would be because he's stuck in a tier above Letang and Burns has moved a tier above. At least this year, Burns is above everyone else. The stats speak for themselves.

He's 32 years old, unlikely to ever have a season like this one again. Meanwhile Karlsson has been brilliant even focusing on D first, and is much younger. Just because a player has a better season doesn't mean he will be the higher pick for next season.

For fantasy, Karlsson is still king for next season and beyond. Burns is the better fantasy option for this season only.

[The Iron Sheik]

I disagree with this, but I only look forward 3 years for fantasy purposes... maybe you are looking further.

In my league Burns is the most valuable skater this year. 20% more valuable than Ovechkin, and 40% more valuable than Karlsson.

For the next 3 years give me Burns over Karlsson easily.

Then you will be burned, just like people who took Weber, Chara, etc. because of huge seasons years ago. Karlsson will outperform Burns in the next three seasons. One season doesn't mean you project that player higher, especially at age 32.

SJ window isn't big. If they don't win the Cup this year, they won't let Burns be a forward like he is right now. He is exactly what people said Karlsson was when they wrongfully and ignorantly criticized him before.

[BreadManPanarin]

He's 32 years old, unlikely to ever have a season like this one again.

That is exactly what the guy who owned him in my keep all league thought last year. He expected Burns would regress this year, so he "sold high" to me.

The exact opposite happened, he took his game to an even more ridiculously elite level.

I won't pretend to know the future. All I know is that I am putting my eggs in the Burns basket for the next 3 years. Just my personal choice, not saying it is the right one.

[lucafen4]

He's 32 years old, unlikely to ever have a season like this one again. Meanwhile Karlsson has been brilliant even focusing on D first, and is much younger. Just because a player has a better season doesn't mean he will be the higher pick for next season.

For fantasy, Karlsson is still king for next season and beyond. Burns is the better fantasy option for this season only.

First, Karlsson is not currently king - right now Burns is. 64 in 60 vs. 52 in 58. Last year, the previous couple years - agreed, right now, just no.


Burns put up 75pts last season... so it's not limited to one season. 60 pts the season before that, not EK elite, but Dman elite.

It's related to the coaching change and hiring of Peter Deboer, who has let him run wild - and he has in a good way. 2015/16 was his 1st season behind the bench - Burns blows up.. no other explanation for it. It's how he deploys him that has led to this.

And yes, next season, in a one year league, if faced with a Burns/Karlsson option - I would take Burns first.

[BreadManPanarin]

Just because a player has a better season doesn't mean he will be the higher pick for next season.

Last year Karlsson put up 82 pts and Burns put up 75.

This year Karlsson's ADP on ESPN was 10.6 and Burns's was 15.0.

If Burns finishes this year with 82 pts (lower than his current pace) and Karlsson ends up with 75 (higher than his current pace), then I don't see any way Burns doesn't have a better ADP than Karlsson next year. I'm guessing we aren't allowed to bet money on the forums, but I would.

[lucafen4]

Last year Karlsson put up 82 pts and Burns put up 75.

This year Karlsson's ADP on ESPN was 10.6 and Burns's was 15.0.

If Burns finishes this year with 82 pts (lower than his current pace) and Karlsson ends up with 75 (higher than his current pace), then I don't see any way Burns doesn't have a better ADP than Karlsson next year. I'm guessing we aren't allowed to bet money on the forums, but I would.

A lot of people either didn't account for or give serious credence to 'the Boucher factor'

[The Iron Sheik]

First, Karlsson is not currently king - right now Burns is. 64 in 60 vs. 52 in 58. Last year, the previous couple years - agreed, right now, just no.


Burns put up 75pts last season... so it's not limited to one season. 60 pts the season before that, not EK elite, but Dman elite.

It's related to the coaching change and hiring of Peter Deboer, who has let him run wild - and he has in a good way. 2015/16 was his 1st season behind the bench - Burns blows up.. no other explanation for it. It's how he deploys him that has led to this.

And yes, next season, in a one year league, if faced with a Burns/Karlsson option - I would take Burns first.

Try reading what I said. I said Burns is definitely better option this season. No question.

Although it would not shock me for Karlsson to finish right near him in points.

Go ahead and take Burns first next year. Just like people taking Kane over Crosby.

[The Iron Sheik]

A lot of people either didn't account for or give serious credence to 'the Boucher factor'

Um, what? What factor? You're getting exactly what you wanted out of Karlsson if you drafted him. The team has really improved its defense (6th overall in goals against) yet Karlsson will still finish near 80 points (on pace for 74 right now, but really hot right now).

Karlsson is that good, no matter who the coach is or what. He is the fantasy #1 in a keeper league, zero question.

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Last year Karlsson put up 82 pts and Burns put up 75.

This year Karlsson's ADP on ESPN was 10.6 and Burns's was 15.0.

If Burns finishes this year with 82 pts (lower than his current pace) and Karlsson ends up with 75 (higher than his current pace), then I don't see any way Burns doesn't have a better ADP than Karlsson next year. I'm guessing we aren't allowed to bet money on the forums, but I would.

Huh? Why would I care what their ADP is? I do think people are too shortsighted and will pick Burns over Karlsson, 100%. I said if you pick Burns over Karlsson it's a mistake. Doesn't mean it won't happen with casuals who just look at the previous season's totals.

I meant to write it doesn't mean he will be the better pick next year, not the higher pick.

[lucafen4]

Um, what? What factor? You're getting exactly what you wanted out of Karlsson if you drafted him. The team has really improved its defense (6th overall in goals against) yet Karlsson will still finish near 80 points (on pace for 74 right now, but really hot right now).

Karlsson is that good, no matter who the coach is or what. He is the fantasy #1 in a keeper league, zero question.

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Huh? Why would I care what their ADP is? I do think people are too shortsighted and will pick Burns over Karlsson, 100%. I said if you pick Burns over Karlsson it's a mistake. Doesn't mean it won't happen with casuals who just look at the previous season's totals.

I meant to write it doesn't mean he will be the better pick next year, not the higher pick.

The Boucher factor - D-first, will have an affect on the team offence. 1st half of the year, this was true. Pull up a few articles about his hiring, early season - I didn't make it up.

http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...february-2017/ Burns is #1 on D - according to Dobber's rankings.

I hope your comment is limited to Dmen, cuz if it's overall, I'm taking several other players before Karlsson - Crosby, Ovie, Burns, McDavid especially.

I prefer to look over the last two years totals (minimum)and then you're looking at basically two equal Dmen, but I'd prefer the peripherals and extra goals of Burns. It's my preference. At worst, Burns is a 70pt player next season and karlsson is 75... burns will outshoot and out goal Karlsson. My choice. I can find a block specialist (Russell), but you can't find a shot specialist.

[The Iron Sheik]

The Boucher factor - D-first, will have an affect on the team offence. 1st half of the year, this was true. Pull up a few articles about his hiring, early season - I didn't make it up.

http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...february-2017/ Burns is #1 on D - according to Dobber's rankings.

I hope your comment is limited to Dmen, cuz if it's overall, I'm taking several other players before Karlsson - Crosby, Ovie, Burns, McDavid especially.

I prefer to look over the last two years totals (minimum)and then you're looking at basically two equal Dmen, but I'd prefer the peripherals and extra goals of Burns. It's my preference. At worst, Burns is a 70pt player next season and karlsson is 75... burns will outshoot and out goal Karlsson. My choice. I can find a block specialist (Russell), but you can't find a shot specialist.

i couldn't care less about Dobber's rankings. I just proved to you that even the D-first mentality from the start of the year has had basically no effect on Karlsson's offence. They aren't actually a D first team, they just focused on learning the defensive game in the first few months. There is no Boucher factor right now. All the Sens scorers are scoring like normal now.

Regardless, I proved to you that your statement was wrong that "they didn't consider the Boucher factor". It didn't need to be considered given what he's actually produced so far.

We will look back on this thread next year. There's a reason Karlsson is a perennial Norris candidate and Burns wasn't amazing until 31 years old. Shots on goal will change each year, Burns is declining from last year already and Karlsson had almost 300 three seasons ago.

[lucafen4]

i couldn't care less about Dobber's rankings. I just proved to you that even the D-first mentality from the start of the year has had basically no effect on Karlsson's offence. They aren't actually a D first team, they just focused on learning the defensive game in the first few months. There is no Boucher factor right now. All the Sens scorers are scoring like normal now.

Regardless, I proved to you that your statement was wrong that "they didn't consider the Boucher factor". It didn't need to be considered given what he's actually produced so far.

We will look back on this thread next year. There's a reason Karlsson is a perennial Norris candidate and Burns wasn't amazing until 31 years old. Shots on goal will change each year, Burns is declining from last year already and Karlsson had almost 300 three seasons ago.

you didn't prove anything. you just punched your keyboard a bit harder in response. The same as you saying Karlsson is the #1 fantasy player - that's YOUR OPINION. It's not fact. No offence, but I'll take Dobber's rankings over your opinion. Something tells me there's a bit more insight and less bias involved in creating that list.