Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

[rataylor22]

This is not an argument - just a curious question for clarification. What is the format of an average multi-cat league?

Mine is G, A, +/-,PIM, SOG, Hit, Blk, PPpt. Head to head, so each category win has equal value.

I would say leagues that are based off category wins, instead of weighted points are dying, as they should. Flawed logic to say winning the blocks category is worth the same as winning the goals category.

[The Iron Sheik]

I'd rather argue Provorov is going to be the first Provorov.

It's been a long long time since Russia's developed a Dman that is going to be as dominant as this one - in every facet of the game. IMO - that leaves the canvas wide open for what he'll become.

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I'd rather argue Provorov is going to be the first Provorov.

It's been a long long time since Russia's developed a Dman that is going to be as dominant as this one - in every facet of the game. IMO - that leaves the canvas wide open for what he'll become.

Has a long way to go to surpass Gonchar

[MZac]

I enjoyed the read bread man. Thanks for all the stats. Im looking forward to watching him progress.

To definitively say a 20 year defenceman will or will not be in tier 1, tier 2, or tier 3, for the rest of his career, either way, is pure speculation. No one on here knows. I think bread man has made that pretty clear as well.. And.. It's fun to speculate..

[The Comish]

IN GENERAL, in your average multi-cat fantasy league.

Karlsson
Burns
-----
Byfuglien
Hedman
Letang
OEL
-----
Weber
Risto
Doughty
Keith

Provorov will be in that third tier. He could get into the second tier. He won't be in the first tier.

Funny thing about predicting which tier someone will ascend to - Burns has only been drafted as a top tier D-man over the last two seasons. In fact, in his first 10 seasons, he was a F/D. Finally, in 2014/15, SJ kept him at D and he hit for 60 points, plus a ton of multi-cat glory. No one was drafting him as a top tier D heading into his breakout season. So only from 2014-15 until this year (3 seasons) has Burns been in the top tier. My whole point was limiting a 20 year old rookie's tier upside seems a bit premature after such a nice start.

[ericdaoust]

My whole point was limiting a 20 year old rookie's tier upside seems a bit premature after such a nice start.

In this scenario the "boom" is so far down the road it's almost irrelevant in our current fantasy leagues.

[BreadManPanarin]

In this scenario the "boom" is so far down the road it's almost irrelevant in our current fantasy leagues.

I don't really understand the "bah humbug" approach to evaluating fantasy upside. It is possible that Provorov or Werenski or player X ascends to elite status virtually overnight. It happens. Panarin is a recent example. Most the people who own him in keepers were early believers willing to hope and believe, not skeptics who said "dream on." Hoping and believing are fun, Damnit. And so is discussion.

[The Comish]

In this scenario the "boom" is so far down the road it's almost irrelevant in our current fantasy leagues.

Tiering in one year leagues is relatively simple, but in keeper leagues, it's an art form and everyone's a critic.

[The Iron Sheik]

I don't really understand the "bah humbug" approach to evaluating fantasy upside. It is possible that Provorov or Werenski or player X ascends to elite status virtually overnight. It happens. Panarin is a recent example. Most the people who own him in keepers were early believers willing to hope and believe, not skeptics who said "dream on." Hoping and believing are fun, Damnit. And so is discussion.

Ericdaoust is a negative Nancy who is down on players all the time, just FYI

[masterjeff]

So how does Sergachev project to be compared to Provorov.. i can definitely see similarities there

[ericdaoust]

Hoping and believing are fun, Damnit. And so is discussion.

I was referring to the Burns example. If anyone follows that trajectory it's a huge investment to go from draft day (or early career trade) to the peak years. Dmen are weird like that. Others peak early and do a bunch of peaks and valleys.

[The Comish]

Dmen are weird like that. Others peak early and do a bunch of peaks and valleys.

This. Exactly.

[The Comish]

Ericdaoust is a negative Nancy who is down on players all the time, just FYI

This was super informative. That Ericdaoust guy sounds an awful lot like my last boss. I hated that guy, ergo I now hate Ericdaoust. Thanks for the FYI.

[ericdaoust]

This was super informative. That Ericdaoust guy sounds an awful lot like my last boss. I hated that guy, ergo I now hate Ericdaoust. Thanks for the FYI.

I hate Ericdaoust too, just FYI.

[BreadManPanarin]

I was referring to the Burns example. If anyone follows that trajectory it's a huge investment to go from draft day (or early career trade) to the peak years. Dmen are weird like that. Others peak early and do a bunch of peaks and valleys.

Gotcha. I didn't mean to single out that comment.. Just seems like a lot of people on these forums consistently urge a conservative outlook on players, as if nobody ever suddenly breaks out into stardom. If you go all in on believing in certain young guys like I have over the last year+ with Panarin, Ehlers, Draisaitl, Reinhart, Mantha, Werenski, Provorov, Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck you are bound to be wrong sometimes... And probably most of the time. But it is extra fun when you end up right the other part of the time. Hopefully Provorov will be one of those Karlsson types that hits 60 points in his 3rd season and never looks back. We can dream

[rataylor22]

Gotcha. I didn't mean to single out that comment.. Just seems like a lot of people on these forums consistently urge a conservative outlook on players, as if nobody ever suddenly breaks out into stardom. If you go all in on believing in certain young guys like I have over the last year+ with Panarin, Ehlers, Draisaitl, Reinhart, Mantha, Werenski, Provorov, Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck you are bound to be wrong sometimes... And probably most of the time. But it is extra fun when you end up right the other part of the time. Hopefully Provorov will be one of those Karlsson types that hits 60 points in his 3rd season and never looks back. We can dream

The point is, that still wouldn't be in the Karlsson/Burns tier. That's literally the whole point of this entire argument. He has to have awesome peripherals AND be basically a point per game defenceman to be in that tier. Literally that is the entire freaking point. 60 points with great peripherals isn't the Burns/Karlsson tier. In your league, maybe. In general, no.