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Thread: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

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    Default Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    Haha, gotcha. Please don't freak out and think that I am saying Provorov will be Erik Karlsson, or even that he has a reasonable probability of being Erik Karlsson. I'm not. That was just a provocative title for a thread in which I'll compare their early career numbers.



    Calm now?

    Let's proceed.

    I think we all agree that Erik Karlsson is a multi-cat stud. In looking at the first 60 games for Karlsson and the first 59 games for Provorov (#60 is tonight), I noticed some interesting similarities as well as some interesting differences.

    Erik Karlsson first 60 game stats: 5 goals, 21 assists, 24 PIM, 112 SOG, 10 PP points, 44 Hits, 48 Blocks, 20:07 ATOI

    Ivan Provorov first 59 game stats: 5 goals, 19 assists, 22 PIM, 113 SOG, 4 PP points, 78 Hits, 124 Blocks, 21:38 ATOI

    As you can see, Karlsson and Provorov yielded very similar point totals in their first ~60 games, with Provorov's perhaps being more impressive due to his 83% even strength point percentage versus Karlsson's 61.5%. Their PIMs and SOGs were nearly identical. Karlsson has never been a big hitter... his 49 in 58 games this year is very close to his pace as his rookie year, while Provorov seems to be a bit more physically inclined.

    The biggest difference is in Blocks, a category which Karlsson struggled with initially but today he is one of the true studs in that category. He is tied for the league lead with 155 in 58 games. Provorov's 124 in 59 games is impressive on its own... it puts him 10th in the league for that category this year. However, a closer looks shows that he is picking up serious steam in that category. Over the past 30 days he has 30 blocks in 11 games, giving him the 4th highest 82 game pace in the league over that period (224), and over the past 15 days he has 17 blocks in 5 games, giving him the highest 82 game pace of any D man over that period (279). Surely this recent rate is unsustainable, but it shows that blocking is both a serious talent and a serious area of focus for this young player. What if he can somehow improve on this already seemingly elite blocking skill? Now that would be very interesting in a league that counts Blocks as a stat.

    The point being made here is not that Provorov is the next Erik Karlsson. That seems highly unlikely. But Provorov's rookie season measures up favorably to Karlsson's in every statistical measure except PP points, and he is already putting up far superior hit and block rates to what Karlsson did. If (and this is a massive if) Provorov can demonstrate similar progression in his point totals going forward, he just might have the best shot of any young D man out there to be the next absolutely dominant d man in fantasy.

    Still upset about the Karlsson comparison? Okay. A more attainable goal might be for him to be the next Roman Josi. Josi is a guy who flirts with 200 SOG and 200 Blocks annually while putting up 50+ points. The list of guys who do that is ridiculously small (just Josi and Giordano the past two years, and they only did it one year each.) Provorov could be a serious contender to be on that short list for a long time.

    I just bought him in my league after delving into his numbers and loving what I saw, and wanted to share them with anyone else who might still have the opportunity to do the same before he potentially becomes unattainable.

    Good luck potential buyers!


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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    If we go based on first 60 games what does this make Werenski? Paul Coffey?


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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    I specifically avoided the Provorov vs. Werenski thread for this discussion because I wanted to discuss Provorov's multi-cat potential, not him vs. Werenski.

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    Clickbait normally isn't well received.

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    I'd rather argue Provorov is going to be the first Provorov.

    It's been a long long time since Russia's developed a Dman that is going to be as dominant as this one - in every facet of the game. IMO - that leaves the canvas wide open for what he'll become.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'd rather argue Provorov is going to be the first Provorov.

    It's been a long long time since Russia's developed a Dman that is going to be as dominant as this one - in every facet of the game. IMO - that leaves the canvas wide open for what he'll become.
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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    Clickbait normally isn't well received.
    That's okay, I don't mind.

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    All you can do from this is know that Provorov has done well. Combined with his pedigree, it's looking good.

    But you could pull out so many other 60 game stretches of stats that are almost identical to those two and find that those careers went all over the place.

    Provorov has a strong body of work.

    Provorov has had a good start to his NHL career.

    Provorov has a strong outlook as a productive NHL defenseman.

    Done.

    - - - Updated - - -

    All you can do from this is know that Provorov has done well. Combined with his pedigree, it's looking good.

    But you could pull out so many other 60 game stretches of stats that are almost identical to those two and find that those careers went all over the place.

    Provorov has a strong body of work.

    Provorov has had a good start to his NHL career.

    Provorov has a strong outlook as a productive NHL defenseman.

    Done.

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    I'd rather argue Provorov is going to be the first Provorov.

    It's been a long long time since Russia's developed a Dman that is going to be as dominant as this one - in every facet of the game. IMO - that leaves the canvas wide open for what he'll become.
    Oh, I agree completely. The comparison to Karlsson's early numbers was mostly to show that Provorov's offensive production so far is actually quite impressive. But what is really off the charts impressive is his all around game. I don't see many young d men out there right now who I think will be in the same multi-cat tier as Provorov in a few years... Ristolainen is one of the few who could be.

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    All you can do from this is know that Provorov has done well. Combined with his pedigree, it's looking good.

    Provorov has a strong body of work.

    Provorov has had a good start to his NHL career.

    Provorov has a strong outlook as a productive NHL defenseman.
    I agree wholeheartedly with all of this. I am just a person who is not satisfied by just making obvious statements. I loves stats and comparisons, so sometimes I take the time to find some that I think are interesting and then share them with others. While adding the disclaimer that the comparisons are not necessarily relevant predictors.

    But you could pull out so many other 60 game stretches of stats that are almost identical to those two and find that those careers went all over the place.
    This part I am not so sure about. Tell you what, I don't need multiple examples... just give me one example of a player who had roughly the same stats as Provorov in their first 60 games, and i will concede the point. Based on your comment above, it sounds like this shouldn't be difficult nor take very long.

    5 goals, 19 assists, 22 PIM, 113 SOG, 4 PP points, 78 Hits, 124 Blocks, 21:38 ATOI (give or take a reasonable number on each stat, of course. With Points, SOG, and blocks being most relevant)

    The point I was trying to make was not that Provorov is going to be an offensive stud because he has similar offensive numbers to Karlsson. It was that he is going to be a multi-cat stud because he is already hitting a lot and blocking at an elite rate, and offensively he has a ton of room to grow, with the example being where Karlsson started - not necessarily where Provorov will end up.

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    This part I am not so sure about. Tell you what, I don't need multiple examples... just give me just one example of a player who had roughly the same stats as Provorov in their first 60 games, and i will concede the point. Based on your comment above, it sounds like this shouldn't be difficult nor take very long.

    5 goals, 19 assists, 22 PIM, 113 SOG, 4 PP points, 78 Hits, 124 Blocks, 21:38 ATOI (give or take a reasonable number on each stat, of course)

    The point I was trying to make was not that Provorov is going to be an offensive stud because he has similar offensive numbers to Karlsson. It was that he is going to be a multi-cat stud because he is already hitting a lot and blocking at an elite rate, and offensively he has a ton of room to grow, with the example being where Karlsson started - not necessarily where Provorov will end up.
    I don't think I'll be able to pick out 60 game snippets (I'm actually not sure how you found karlssons!) but I'll grab some first season stats from some guys.

    We'll extend Provorov's assuming an 82 game season (although rookies tend to slow down as the season drags on).

    Ivan Provorov
    82GP, 7G, 26A, 30PIM, 155SOG, 6PP, 107HT, 169BLK, 21:38ATOI

    Here's the first two showing one guy going one way and another going the other. I'll add more as I find them.

    Tyler Myers
    82GP, 11G, 37A, 32PIM, 104SOG, 16PP, 89HT, 133BLK, 23:44ATOI

    Drew Doughty
    81GP, 6G, 21A, 56PIM, 126SOG, 16PP, 90HT, 114BLK, 23:50ATOI

    Jacob Trouba (65GP extrapolated to 82GP)
    82GP, 13G, 24A, 54PIM, 153SOG, 4PP, 120HT, 167BLK, 22:26ATOI

    Travis Hamonic (62GP extrapolated to 82GP)
    82GP, 7G, 28A, 136PIM, 156SOG, 5PP, 153HT, 152BLK, 21:24ATOI

    Erik Johnson, Roman Josi, Marc-Eduard Vlasic are others with similar rookie seasons.

    There's more, but it's hard to sort guys of different ages by their rookie year to be able to find them all. Point is there are all sorts of kids who will show a 60 or 82 game snippet of similar production, yet their careers end up in different places.

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    I hope he is the next Doughty... which means 2 Stanley Cups for the Flyers!

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    ^Was just thinking the same. I think Provorov will be more like Doughty.
    Norris kind of guy eventually, with a range of 40-60pt seasons... depending on how well his PP forwards are helping his cause.

    - - - Updated - - -

    ^Was just thinking the same. I think Provorov will be more like Doughty.
    Norris kind of guy eventually, with a range of 40-60pt seasons... depending on how well his PP forwards are helping his cause.

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kofax View Post
    I don't think I'll be able to pick out 60 game snippets (I'm actually not sure how you found karlssons!) but I'll grab some first season stats from some guys.

    Here's the first two showing one guy going one way and another going the other. I'll add more as I find them.

    Tyler Myers
    82GP, 11G, 37A, 32PIM, 104SOG, 16PP, 89HT, 133BLK, 23:44ATOI
    Prorated to 60 games: 8G, 27A, 75 SOG, 12 PP, 65 Hit, 97 Blk.

    Drew Doughty
    81GP, 6G, 21A, 56PIM, 126SOG, 16PP, 90HT, 114BLK, 23:50ATOI
    Prorated to 60 games: 4G, 16A, 93 SOG, 12 PP, 67 Hit, 84 Blk.

    Both of these players are similarish to Provorov in points over their first 60 games, but they don't measure up in SOG, Hits or Blocks. I want to stress that I realize many defensive players have had very strong offensive first seasons, but my point on Provorov is that his combination of Points (especially in light of his light PP usage), SOG, and Blocks make finding a comparable for him significantly more difficult than if you were just trying to find a comparable based on point production.

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    Prorated to 60 games: 4G, 16A, 93 SOG, 12 PP, 67 Hit, 84 Blk.

    Both of these players are similarish to Provorov in points over their first 60 games, but they don't measure up in SOG, Hits or Blocks. I want to stress that I realize many defensive players have had very strong offensive first seasons, but my point on Provorov is that his combination of Points (especially in light of his light PP usage), SOG, and Blocks make finding a comparable for him significantly more difficult than if you were just trying to find a comparable based on point production.
    To me both Myers and Doughty are close enough in those categories, but if you want even closer, I've added Jacob Trouba to the list.

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    Default Re: Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    ^Was just thinking the same. I think Provorov will be more like Doughty.
    Norris kind of guy eventually, with a range of 40-60pt seasons... depending on how well his PP forwards are helping his cause.
    I agree on the point production. 40-60 pts is somewhere along the lines of where I see him ending up. The reason I think he will be on the Karlsson TIER of multicat D men instead of the Doughty TIER is because he will supply a lot more peripherals. Doughty has 83 blocks in 59 games right now as a 9 year veteran. Provorov has 124 blocks in 59 games as a 20 year old rookie.

    Maybe I should have more explicitly stated that what I mean is that I expect Provorov to be on the Karlsson/Burns/Byfuglien/Hedman TIER of multicat d men. The guys listed contribute value in different ways, but the culmination of their contribution over the various categories puts them on a clearly higher tier than other D men in a multicat league. With Burns pretty much being in a tier all his own right now. Does this make sense?

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