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Thread: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

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    LuigiC173's Avatar
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    Default The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Fantasy hockey, the part time job we all actually like; In the course of my five or so years of playing I have certainly changed my strategies and have acquired a better understanding of how to structure a squad to be competitive. When I first started I would always go into a draft with this mental dilemma of should I take a center? a wing? Go off the board completely and take a goalie?!?! In time I built up my own personal way of going about a draft (these days I play the draft trends) and really do not overthink it at all anymore; when you educate yourself to know the majority of the players and what their specific role and more so importance to their respective squad is it really helps to ease that stress. Nowadays I never make the mistake for example of taking a third liner when I could've had a first or second line player for a lesser squad who plays on PP1.

    But I digress and what I am really here to write about is drafting pairs and not necessarily restricted to forward line mates. I am also taking into consideration D pairs, F/D pairs and power play pairs. Drafting pairs gets mixed reviews from what I have seen, some are for it and some are not, either way I am not one for judgement. If there has been one constant in my drafting history, it's my propensity to lock up an elite pair relatively early on in my draft(s) followed by lesser known ones and one(s) where both players are featured on PP together. Let's look at my past three drafts in my one year league and the pairs acquired on each respective squad; starting in 2014-15 the pair(s) I locked up goes as follows:

    2014-15

    Benn/Seguin (SO NOT FAIR TO OWN)
    Subban/Markov
    Turris/Ryan

    2015-16

    Giroux/Voracek
    Saad/Dubinsky
    Backstrom/Carlson
    Muzzin/Kopitar

    2016-17

    Giroux/Voracek
    Johansen/Josi
    Duchene/Barrie
    Johansson/Carlson
    Uncle Leo/Marner/Rielly (Rielly seems to get name thrown in hat and coach selects night by night which PP he goes on)

    The first thing you might notice is that I have a man crush on G and Voracek; with each progressive season I drafted more pairs that are either featured on the same line or the same PP and in the best scenario (G/Voracek and Seguin/Benn), on both. I might be called a nut for this but I am chasing the 3-peat in this league this season and I do consider all of my opposition fairly well versed in the hockey world. Between Seguin, Benn, PK and Markov alone in 2014-15 I received 98 PP points....that is absurd from 4 people. On top of that they also all had fantastic seasons and hit several of the scoring categories (PP, +/-, G, A, etc.). I won that season by a landslide and finished reg. season 19-2-1. The following year between G, Voracek, Carlson and Backstrom I received.....wait for it....94 PP points; disappointing I know but yet again another league title. This year so far I am pacing the league in PP points with the next best at 94 total (I have 109 already); also I am currently 7-1 first overall.

    I am not saying that pairs and power play production are everything for success, but they can certainly play a large role if done right. Draft too many from same team and you find yourself in a hole you did not think of. You must certainly differentiate the teams from which your players derive from overall otherwise you will run into some real dry weeks as far as starts. Even now I have some weeks where it can seem a little thin but I survive. I also understand that there are for instance salary leagues where you might not be able to get all this name brand talent. I do feel though that regardless of how hardcore a league is as far as settings, that everyone should really try to target at least one pairing of these sorts.

    Patience and enduring change in a one year IMO is the most vital thing. Let's say you own John Carlson like me and when you see Matt Niskanen steal the thunder on PP1 not too long ago you just stand their saying WTF?!?! But going back to what I said at the beginning about educating yourself on individual teams and an individual players role, I know John Carlson is the guy; Niskanen is a solid defender but he is not John Carlson and eventually he will find himself off that unit whether via Trotz's hand or Carlson elevating his play to a level he cannot match. Barrie this season losing PP1 spot to Johnson I am sure instilled fear in his owner's hearts but again as solid as Johnson is he does not possess Barrie's offensive acumen. I cannot say that if Johnson was not injured if he would still be on PP1 but only a little over quarter mark in season me as Barrie owner would not falter in my faith in him regardless. Maybe my leash is a little longer for players what can I say but I certainly do not hit the panic button at first sign of distress. With pairings of this sort you WILL have nights where it hits you in the plus minus department in negative fashion (plenty of -6 nights in my experience from G and Voracek), but I come from the school of thinking that this is but one category and if they are hitting all the other ones so be it and let another player on my squad nullify their negative rating. There will also be plenty of nights though where you look at the production from the pairs alone across the board and you're just all smiles in your office chair (perhaps a very Mr. Burns-esque EXCELLENT with your hands touching solely at the fingertips).

    In closing I hope my writing has not put you to sleep but if you suffer from insomnia and it got you to nod off well at least I was of some assistance in that regard. Find a pairing you love and ride the wave baby. Good luck to you all in your respective seasons and hopefully someone out there in the fantasy land jumps on the train with me!
    Doughty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap
    12 team redraft (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,GWG,FOW,ATOI,SOG,HIT) (W, SV, SO, GAA, SV%)

    Forward:Crosby, Kessel, Scheifele, Rakell, Pavelski, Carter, Miller, Stepan, Zibanejad, Duchene, Saad, Lindholm, Kesler
    Defense: Doughty, OEL, Yandle, Weber, Leddy, Chabot, Pionk
    Goalies: Andersen, Talbot, Raanta, Domingue


    The Peter North Stars
    12 team keep 8 (weighted scoring)

    C: Backstrom, Draisaitl, Getzlaf, Kesler, Paquette

    RW: Boeser, Palmieri, Zibanejad, Gallagher, Tuch

    LW: Lee, Skinner, Parise, Komarov

    D: Josi, Ristolainen, Hedman, Chabot, Edler
    G: Murray, Jones, Domingue
    IR: Trocheck


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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    I have found this topic very interesting. Thanks for the article Luigi.

    My main reason for drafting either pairs or line-mates has always been to deny points to the opposition. It doesn't always work out perfectly, but with some well-established duos like Ovie and Backstrom, generally, if you own one but not the other, it allows the opposing GM to treat his player like an anchor to your team, making that team drag yours along with it. I find this really only works in pts-only leagues, since in multicat, there are so many other factors.. This strategy works even better in playoff pools, where the games played are limited, but those are an entirely different story. I generally like to collect pairs if I can and also, if they are productive on their own usually but are even better with their usual pair-mate.. (partner? lol).

    I would love to delve into whether this actually makes a big difference or if it is my perception of the advantage. I feel it's self-evident, but being a guy who loves numbers, I would love to see some ratios applied to test the theory.. I wonder if there is any research out there...?
    Blades of Steel
    10 Team Full Keeper - Pts Only (G,A,W,SO)

    Crosby, Backstrom, Wheeler, Bergeron, Dadonov, Voracek, Connor, DeBrincat, Hoffman, Pastrnak
    Karlsson, Yandle, Pulock, Theodore, Montour
    Hellebuyck, Talbot
    Oshie, Zuccarello, Mantha, Toffoli, Nyqvist, Fabbri, E.Lindholm, S.Girard, Saros, C.Hutton

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Thanks agentzero. I have not done any real numbers for this, like you it is my perception that an advantage lies within if done correctly. I ended up losing in the championship this season 6-7-2, if I did not bench Johansson night he had four assists I would have won it was that close. Nonetheless team led in three categories and was top 3 in 7 others so at this point a few years in with a few titles under my belt I have to believe this concept bears actual positive results. McD/Draisaitl is the dream pair next year!
    Doughty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap
    12 team redraft (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,GWG,FOW,ATOI,SOG,HIT) (W, SV, SO, GAA, SV%)

    Forward:Crosby, Kessel, Scheifele, Rakell, Pavelski, Carter, Miller, Stepan, Zibanejad, Duchene, Saad, Lindholm, Kesler
    Defense: Doughty, OEL, Yandle, Weber, Leddy, Chabot, Pionk
    Goalies: Andersen, Talbot, Raanta, Domingue


    The Peter North Stars
    12 team keep 8 (weighted scoring)

    C: Backstrom, Draisaitl, Getzlaf, Kesler, Paquette

    RW: Boeser, Palmieri, Zibanejad, Gallagher, Tuch

    LW: Lee, Skinner, Parise, Komarov

    D: Josi, Ristolainen, Hedman, Chabot, Edler
    G: Murray, Jones, Domingue
    IR: Trocheck


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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    I always find this can go both ways so if they land in my lap then I'll take them, but I don't necessarily go out of my way to target pairings. I play in only H2H leagues though so I can see how this would be better in say a roto league. In H2H, sure they might have a great overall season together, but one bad playoff week from that team and you're done.

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Did someone say "elite tandem theory"?

    Where is MT319?

    That was the guy right?

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Always an interesting argument. I have long maintained that owning duos does not in and of itself create an advantage and is a very slight disadvantage. The disadvantage comes from the fact that duos always play on the same nights and thus create more scheduling conflicts than any 2 players from separate teams. This disadvantage could be turned into an advantage should you get a duo from a team with a high number of off nights, but that is not an inherent advantage from having the duo but rather doubling the advantage of focusing on off night players.

    Anyways my arguments against duos. There is no chemistry in fantasy hockey, you don’t have to worry about your actually hitting the ice, all you want to do is maximize the number of points/categories acquired. Further, remember that every move has a benefit and an opportunity cost. The question is never: Do I want that player on my team, but more completely: Do I want that player given the other options? In a trade the cost for a player is the assets traded away, in the draft the cost is a draft pick and as a waiver wire pick up the cost is the player being dropped.

    So, every time you go to acquire a player the only considerations should be whether or not the deal improves your team. Simplest example is the draft, your turn comes you have a choice between completing the duo and an unrelated player. The question is simply who you think will better perform during the year, you don’t score any bonus points for having a duo so that fact alone should not be considered.

    Now, when projecting a players output you should consider his playing factors including his own skill and history as well as his team, his linemates, his PP potential etc. In this regard, if you value a duo, or team’s roster/PP higher than anyone else in your league you’ll likely be willing to pay the most (highest pick or most trade assets) to get multiple players creating duos, but this should be based upon valuing each player in the duo the same whether or not you own the first player in the duo.
    As an example, you seem to really like Giroux. You review his skill set, his history, his linemates and his PP-1 and decide to project Giroux for 80 point season, everyone else in you league has him between 65-75, so, since you value him the highest you draft him before anyone else is willing to (they take Getzlaf, Backstrom, Pavelski where you would have taken Giroux). Now, you look at Voracek and do the same analysis. However your analysis includes Giroux getting 80 points, which you think G will get because he’ll skate 5v5 with Voracek and because Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds on the top-PP are deadly. So your analysis says Voracek will get 70 points, the rest of the league thinks its lower and again you draft Voracek. The same thing likely occurred with Benn/Seguin you managed to see their breakout potential, and realized if one broke out the other would likely as well, so you acquired both.

    Counterpart though, let’s assume in the example above you failed to acquire Giroux, because another GM in your league loved him as well and drafted him first. The same round comes where you’re considering Voracek (but now you don’t have Giroux) the analysis should be the same, either Voracek is the best player for your team or he’s not, if he is you acquire him if he’s not you don’t. Or, you draft both and you’re happy to have G and Voracek, but another GM comes along who is super in love with Giroux, he offers you Crosby straight up for G, you have to compare the players straight up and should give no consideration to the fact that you have to split up the duo.

    In most leagues of been in I find the same guys drafting the same players year after year, everyone has their man-crush and because of that values said man-crush higher than the rest of the league. Sometimes that man-crush is a whole team, or sometimes it spreads from “I love Giroux” to “I love Giroux and by extension love Voracek”.

    In conclusion: do your analysis on every player independently if you have a player higher than his acquisition cost get him, if you value a second player higher than his acquisition cost get him as well but don’t overpay for one, or refuse to get proper value for one because you own the other.
    12 team H-2-H 1 year league, daily roster changes, 3 goalie start minimum/week
    2xC, 2xRW, 2xLW, 4xD, 3xUtil, 2xG, 5 Bench
    G, A, P, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, SVs
    C: S. Crosby, A. Kopitar, M. Granlund(MIN), A. Kerfoot
    LW: JT Miller (C), A. Lee (C), J. Zucker, K. Kapanen
    RW: S. Aho (Caronlina)(C), V. Arvidsson, J. Silfververg, T. Wilson,
    D:PK Subban D. Hamilton, I Provorov, R. McDonagh
    G: D. Dubnyk, M. Murray, C. DeSmith, M. Smith

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    many great points indeed LawMan, well written. I do agree in not overvaluing despite liking the player. Precisely regarding Seguin/Benn I foresaw that this would be a deadly duo and utilized the swing pick round one to unite Seguin/Benn. Worked beautifully and definitely gave birth to my pair strategy. G season prior to this took first round do not regret despite sub 70 points because of FOW and still lots of PPP. This season both G (3rd) and Voracek (5th) fell down the boards and the value was too good to pass up. They both were mediocre but I received 54 PPP from those 2 still. Both are def going down my ranks this coming year as G looks to be in decline but if the round is right they are still both good owns. I guess it's not so much to say all about loving the player but those two have always seemed to come at a draft discount I won't pass up these past couple seasons. Owned Voracek in keeper last season will not keep this year, shows he is not in same regard for me anymore though Johansen making me reconsider my keeps! I ended up with most pairs I ever had this season and made championship third season in row unfortunately fell short but totally agree about not overvaluing one in draft because you have the other.

    I think the biggest key in my thinking with owning pairs is that the top one I own in this case Philly pair they always start if everyone on roster is playing one night. Locked in every time and fill around overall seems to work out but yes it can be hurtful sometimes as well just roll with it, I am always at bottom of plus minus but won keeper in last that cat so one thing does not change the capability of the squad to win out. Until the wheels fall off the wagon in my redraft league I will keep going after pairs so long as the draft price is right; this season coming the dream one for me is McDavid/Draisaitl. Owned Connor this year in another foresight pick and was rewarded with 100 points, here's to hoping I ever get a first overall in next decade to own again.
    Doughty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap
    12 team redraft (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,GWG,FOW,ATOI,SOG,HIT) (W, SV, SO, GAA, SV%)

    Forward:Crosby, Kessel, Scheifele, Rakell, Pavelski, Carter, Miller, Stepan, Zibanejad, Duchene, Saad, Lindholm, Kesler
    Defense: Doughty, OEL, Yandle, Weber, Leddy, Chabot, Pionk
    Goalies: Andersen, Talbot, Raanta, Domingue


    The Peter North Stars
    12 team keep 8 (weighted scoring)

    C: Backstrom, Draisaitl, Getzlaf, Kesler, Paquette

    RW: Boeser, Palmieri, Zibanejad, Gallagher, Tuch

    LW: Lee, Skinner, Parise, Komarov

    D: Josi, Ristolainen, Hedman, Chabot, Edler
    G: Murray, Jones, Domingue
    IR: Trocheck


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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Seems to be a thread on this once a year.
    Here's one from a few years back (incl. my [confusing to some] response):
    http://forums.dobbersports.com/showt...n7+dice+theory

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    I've always believed combos don't matter and have had a ton of success over the years to back up that belief.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyrobot View Post
    I always find this can go both ways so if they land in my lap then I'll take them, but I don't necessarily go out of my way to target pairings.
    This.


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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    What about leagues with weekly lineup changes?

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Seems to be a thread on this once a year.
    Here's one from a few years back (incl. my [confusing to some] response):
    http://forums.dobbersports.com/showt...n7+dice+theory
    wut?

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    I'm also in the group that doesn't think pairs are necessary. Ultimately you should take the best player available as LawMan broke down.

    As an example, if I'm at the swing pick, and I have the following rankings (for arguments sake and positions don't matter):
    - Seguin 90 points
    - Tavares 80 points
    - Benn 70 points

    I'm going to be taking Seguin and Tavares. My evaluation of these players has taken into account who each will play with and what each will ultimately produce. Seguin and Tavares give me the best overall production. Seguin and Benn will not perform any better if I am the one who drafts both of them.

    Ultimately your success with pairs doesn't really have anything to do with them being pairs, but more to do with the fact that you identified that they were the strongest players available at the time you took them, and they just happened to play together.

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Quote Originally Posted by Kofax View Post
    I'm also in the group that doesn't think pairs are necessary. Ultimately you should take the best player available as LawMan broke down.

    As an example, if I'm at the swing pick, and I have the following rankings (for arguments sake and positions don't matter):
    - Seguin 90 points
    - Tavares 80 points
    - Benn 70 points

    I'm going to be taking Seguin and Tavares. My evaluation of these players has taken into account who each will play with and what each will ultimately produce. Seguin and Tavares give me the best overall production. Seguin and Benn will not perform any better if I am the one who drafts both of them.

    Ultimately your success with pairs doesn't really have anything to do with them being pairs, but more to do with the fact that you identified that they were the strongest players available at the time you took them, and they just happened to play together.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tobias Funke View Post
    What about leagues with weekly lineup changes?
    Bingo! I believe that pairings are best suited to deny to opposing manager in a H2H format at best. This in turn takes a lot of research where you would look at the NHL schedule and then look back at the different weeks you would be facing strong managers (this is done pre-draft so it's a gamble). Getting the 2 Dallas players when you are facing a top team and they are playing an extra game that week can pay off big. In the example of Tavares outpointing Benn by 10 points, I can't argue there. On paper, you are better off getting the 10 extra points in the long run, but if you add some intangibles that are found in H2H matchups, those extra points may not factor as much.

    In small leagues with weekly lineup changes, adding the 2nd or 3rd player on a given line can also work if the stars (no pun intended) are aligned during that specific week.

    Thanks for the article Luigi; it has brought up some valid points from you as well as the other members chiming in!


    Keeper league 14 teams (H2H, 20 active players keep 16 NHLers, 15 minors)
    Scoring Cats: G-A-PTS-PPG-PPA-(+/-)-PIM-BLK-SHP-SOG-FOW-GWG / W-L-SVS-SV%-GAA-SO

    C- Crosby, Pavelski, Toews, N. Schmaltz, Dvorak, Zacha
    W- Benn, Voracek, Forsberg, Oshie, D. Brown, Okposo, Perron, Silfverberg, Bennett
    D- Carlson, Yandle, Provorov, Montour
    G- Price, Hellebuyck, Smith

    Minors:
    F: McLeod, Milano, Merkley, Senyshyn, Necas, Yamamoto, Heponiemi, Batherson, Dube, Kravtsov, Denisenko, Berggren, V. Olofsson
    D: Pulock, Juolevi, J. Schmaltz, Timmins
    G: DiPietro

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Tavares went 4th overall that season but if he was there at 12 oh yeah absolutely but nonetheless when I looked back turns out I did not have the swing pick, turns out I took Seguin 10th overall and Benn 15th overall. 72 goals and 92 assists combined from them and majority of those points one was setting up the other. On top of this 52 PPP,
    533 SOG, 573 FOW, 84 PIM, 11 GWG,183 HIT and ATOI of around 19:45 combined. I get what the others are stating here and am completely in agreeance that you always take the best available but these kinds of stats from two players that play together spell havoc for the opposition. Countless nights that season those two were putting up 4 points combined, 2 or 3 coming on the PP with over 10 shots and 10 hits. I go back to Seguin/Benn because they are most prolific pair I ever owned, G and Voracek have never usurped 150 combined for me in points these two broke 160 and averaged 82 points each that season. All throughout that season my fellow managers were basically just telling me to go f*ck myself for that savvy draft move and I absolutely pissed on my opponent in the championship. The squad consisted of them, Voracek, St. Louis, Pominville, B. Ryan, Thornton, Monahan, Huberdeau, Subban, Hedman, Markov, Faulk, Orpik, Savard, Turris, J. Staal, Fisher, Desharnais, Perreault, Versteeg, Bobrovsky, Dubnyk (picked up as soon as he was traded to MIN) and F. Andersen. Team put up 28G, 62A in the 2 week title bout.
    Doughty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap
    12 team redraft (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,GWG,FOW,ATOI,SOG,HIT) (W, SV, SO, GAA, SV%)

    Forward:Crosby, Kessel, Scheifele, Rakell, Pavelski, Carter, Miller, Stepan, Zibanejad, Duchene, Saad, Lindholm, Kesler
    Defense: Doughty, OEL, Yandle, Weber, Leddy, Chabot, Pionk
    Goalies: Andersen, Talbot, Raanta, Domingue


    The Peter North Stars
    12 team keep 8 (weighted scoring)

    C: Backstrom, Draisaitl, Getzlaf, Kesler, Paquette

    RW: Boeser, Palmieri, Zibanejad, Gallagher, Tuch

    LW: Lee, Skinner, Parise, Komarov

    D: Josi, Ristolainen, Hedman, Chabot, Edler
    G: Murray, Jones, Domingue
    IR: Trocheck


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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Lol Elite Tandem theory. Boy does that bring me back.

    IMO owning a pair increases my fun factor in fantasy...it leads me to watch the team play a lot more games and it can be super exciting when you see that PPG pop up with x assisted by y..just as it can be equally frustrating when you look and see both went pointless with a -4 rating.

    It's a boom/bust kind of mentality....more suitable for the people (like myself) that are more inclined to gamble/risk.

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