Dobber's Mailbag - Ask your Fantasy Hockey Questions - Sept 29 2016

[Dobber]

I have a feeling this will be a crazy-busy thread on a day like today (biggest draft weekend ahead), but I'll try to answer at least 30 questions here. After that, I can't promise! Busiest time of the year, but it's also the time where everyone needs answers the most. I'll do what I can!

Fire away!




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[Pengwin7]

Who is your favourite "back-up" goalie this year that you think has a chance for good stats - whether by injury replacement or by his own play?

[gfhyde]

Pageau was a shorthanded wizard last year. Why was that and do you believe he can get close to duplicating his point/shorthanded point totals this year?

Think Mason gets more starts than Neuvrith this year?

[evans334]

Who's stood out to you or impressed you so far in pre-season and rookie tournaments?

[Dobber]

Who is your favourite "back-up" goalie this year that you think has a chance for good stats - whether by injury replacement or by his own play?

In general, a great backup's strong play won't take a job from a bloated-contract starter. Not without help. He needs an injury to get his foot in the door, then he can steal it. The Top 10 candidates to get injured are: Elliott, Andersen, Gibson, Lehner, Varlamov, Bobrovsky, Halak, Anderson, Allen, Pavelec

From there, you can rule out Bobrovsky replacements because it's a coin toss between Korpisalo vs. Forsberg (amazing AHL Championship playoff run). So grabbing one of those backups is gambling, 50-50
Also rule out Enroth and Nilsson (bad team)
So we're down to seven backups that I'll put in my order:
1. Pickard
2. Greiss
3. Johnson
4. Hutton
5. Hellebuyck
6. Hammond
7. Bernier

[Savvy1982]

Does Wisniewski make the Lightning out of camp? If so, how will he be used by the team?

[Bass56]

Hey Dobber! Thanks for taking these questions.

Here's mine:

I own Price (not moving him), Varlamov, Pickard, Halak, Greiss and Hellebuyck (not moving him) in my keeper league in sig. I tend to dominate in my goalie categories on a yearly basis due to the amount/quality of my tenders in a 16-team league (some don't even have starters). My question is, should I look at moving Varly or the duo of Halak and Greiss for some help on D or up front since Hellebuyck and maybe even Pickard will eventually have their team's respective creases?

Basically, which goalie(s) would you move and what type of return should I look for if the other manager(s) is/are currently struggling in their goalie categories? Do you see a better return with Halak/Greiss (although that would mean that the other team would have to free up 2 slots) or does Varly still hold enough value to warrant moving him (considering I own Pickard, I assume the other party will want the handcuff... should I move Pickard too)? Am I better off moving before the season begins or should I wait a bit and see who heats up early on?

I know my question is a bit vague but I'm just trying to gauge the perceived value of my 3-4 goalies and see what I should do with them.

Thanks in advance for your time, I appreciate it!

[Bass56]

In general, a great backup's strong play won't take a job from a bloated-contract starter. Not without help. He needs an injury to get his foot in the door, then he can steal it. The Top 10 candidates to get injured are: Elliott, Andersen, Gibson, Lehner, Varlamov, Bobrovsky, Halak, Anderson, Allen, Pavelec

From there, you can rule out Bobrovsky replacements because it's a coin toss between Korpisalo vs. Forsberg (amazing AHL Championship playoff run). So grabbing one of those backups is gambling, 50-50
Also rule out Enroth and Nilsson (bad team)
So we're down to seven backups that I'll put in my order:
1. Pickard
2. Greiss
3. Johnson
4. Hutton
5. Hellebuyck
6. Hammond
7. Bernier

AHHHHH, your reply here scares the crap out of me yet makes me happy at the same time considering the question I posted

[louba5]

what to expect from Rick Nash this year? I bought your guide and read it all, great as usual, and I noticed you have him with a pretty lofty points total. Many projections have him well lower in terms of production, and you don't develop much in the guide about him.. Do you know something that others don't?

Also, i'm a bit anxious about Larkin year, it seems like the range of outcome is pretty huge. Do you have a gut feeling either way?

Thanks for doing this!

[StuntMan12]

Hi Dobber,

Long time poster, first time caller....

Do you think William Nylander has much of a chance at the Calder Trophy?

[gfhyde]

AHHHHH, your reply here scares the crap out of me yet makes me happy at the same time considering the question I posted

I was just about to drop Pickard for David Savard in my league. Now I don't know what to do! lol

[Dobber]

Pageau was a shorthanded wizard last year. Why was that and do you believe he can get close to duplicating his point/shorthanded point totals this year?

Think Mason gets more starts than Neuvrith this year?

I think Pageau is indeed a SH wizard and will duplicate those points. But his ES and PP points will dip due to (likely) not playing with Mark Stone and the return of Turris. More than a third of last year's points were with Stone on his line and without Stone you can probably knock off about five of them. I think 40 is a safe bet, but 50 is unlikely. However, an injury to Brassard or Turris would change evrything, as would clear-cut chemistry with Stone (if they get tried together again)
http://dobberhockey.com/players/jean-gabriel-pageau


Mason - yes, for sure. Injuries will dictate who ends up with more starts, but if both are healthy all year then Mason will get more.

[valec]

Thanx for doing this.
Dynasty keeper in sig.

Just finished our draft. Cap was tight so filled the reserve spots with prospects.
Due to IR, I was able to draft a few more players, but I will need to drop one player come start of season.

Due to my weaker depth at D and G, I'm planning to hold onto the D and G prospects, so I'm looking at Milano and Jost for pts only.
Who do you keep?

[Dobber]

Who's stood out to you or impressed you so far in pre-season and rookie tournaments?

So far Heinen (BOS), and Lehkonen (MTL). Keep in mind, I haven't paid much attention to the Big 3 rookies because I already know what to expect from them. My focus has been more on the lesser names.

I found Peter's observations in this podcast very enlightening: http://www.dobberprospects.com/dpr02/ He's watched a LOT of camp action

[Dobber]

Does Wisniewski make the Lightning out of camp? If so, how will he be used by the team?

I think he does, but I think he'll be No.2 PP and I think they'll sign him a few days into the season due to cap reasons and Kucherov. I think he still has gas left in the tank and deserves better, but it is what it is. This decision will lead to a decline in his stats and probably push him out of the NHL for next year.