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Thread: HOLTBY not taken in Keeper! Do I grab him with my 2nd overall pick?

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    Default Re: HOLTBY not taken in Keeper! Do I grab him with my 2nd overall pick?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Answer is actually NO (on Holtby) for me.
    If I'm reading this right... there is only 6 people in this league, drafting 12F, 6D, 2G.

    Total counting players:
    72F
    36D
    12G

    Those are your key league numbers.
    Go find out what the NHL #73F scores every year... probably 45pts or so.
    Go find out what the NHL #37D scores year year... probably 30pts or so.
    Go find out what the NHL #13G scores every year... probably 32W, 5SO = 79pts or so.
    This is the type of player you can get at the end of your draft... or snipe from the waiver wire all year.

    We all love Holtby from last year, just like we all loved Price from the year before, Rask from the year before that, and Lundqvist the year before that.
    These elite goalies can have that magical 45+ W year... but they are all going to come back down to a 38-40W goalie with 5-6 SO eventually.

    The big question in your league is always based on "relative difference".
    What is on the board?

    If you have the choice between a 70pt forward... and knowing you could get a 45pt forward at end of draft... that's +25pt relative difference.
    If you have the choice between a 55pt defenseman... and knowing you could get a 30pt defenseman at end of draft... that's +25pt relative difference.
    And Holtby, as an elite goalie, should be considered 40W, 6SO = 98pts... so what's left at end of draft? You take him if he's more than +25pt difference... 73pts... well all you need is a 30W, 4SO goalie... can you find that in the 13th best goalie in your league? That's about what the NHL 13th best goalie is going to do each year.

    So it's close.
    But there IS a reason why the 5 other teams in your league have passed on Holtby... and this is why.
    Good luck.
    Make the choice that feels RIGHT to you... that's the one you'll enjoy best.
    100% agree with this

    In a small league goalies are easy to come by. If you can get an elite forward or someone who should be elite very soon like Mathews or Laine then I'd rather have that and a Quick or Jones. Mathews and Laine will become keepers and they will hold more trade value to other GM's than Holtby (he obviously isn't valued too high in your league if he is being dropped).

    In a setting where goalies get points for wins and shutouts but not GAA or SV% it is more about having a bonafide starter on a good team than having an elite goalie. Teams go up and down in the standings every year so it is difficult to predict goalie points compared to forwards and defensemen where you can develop a pattern. Holtby still seems like a safe bet to be one of the top goalies this year but it's hard to predict how a team will do in the next 3-5 years as so much can change.

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    Default Re: HOLTBY not taken in Keeper! Do I grab him with my 2nd overall pick?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Answer is actually NO (on Holtby) for me.
    If I'm reading this right... there is only 6 people in this league, drafting 12F, 6D, 2G.

    Total counting players:
    72F
    36D
    12G

    Those are your key league numbers.
    Go find out what the NHL #73F scores every year... probably 45pts or so.
    Go find out what the NHL #37D scores year year... probably 30pts or so.
    Go find out what the NHL #13G scores every year... probably 32W, 5SO = 79pts or so.
    This is the type of player you can get at the end of your draft... or snipe from the waiver wire all year.

    We all love Holtby from last year, just like we all loved Price from the year before, Rask from the year before that, and Lundqvist the year before that.
    These elite goalies can have that magical 45+ W year... but they are all going to come back down to a 38-40W goalie with 5-6 SO eventually.

    The big question in your league is always based on "relative difference".
    What is on the board?

    If you have the choice between a 70pt forward... and knowing you could get a 45pt forward at end of draft... that's +25pt relative difference.
    If you have the choice between a 55pt defenseman... and knowing you could get a 30pt defenseman at end of draft... that's +25pt relative difference.
    And Holtby, as an elite goalie, should be considered 40W, 6SO = 98pts... so what's left at end of draft? You take him if he's more than +25pt difference... 73pts... well all you need is a 30W, 4SO goalie... can you find that in the 13th best goalie in your league? That's about what the NHL 13th best goalie is going to do each year.

    So it's close.
    But there IS a reason why the 5 other teams in your league have passed on Holtby... and this is why.
    Good luck.
    Make the choice that feels RIGHT to you... that's the one you'll enjoy best.

    I have to disagree. First off, Price was injured last year. He isn't the flavour of the year, he is Carey f***cking Price. But my opinion of him aside:

    When it comes to goalies, I agree that the difference between the 6th goalie and the 13th goalie may not be that large, so why waste an early pick on a goalie? In my opinion, goalie disparity isn't necessarily on skill / pt production, but on reliability of the play as well. Can I play him every single matchup and feel safe (HUGE deal in H2H leagues)? Does he start the season strong and then fall off later in the year (cough *Niemi)? Is there other wild card factors relating to the team?

    Its difficult to predict exactly where those goalies will end up, and breaking into an upper tier is a valuable commodity. In this scoring system (W=2pt. SO=3 more pts), the spread on the 1st and 13th goalies last year is 39pts (105pts for Holtby vs 66pts for Schneider). That's a massive spread. There is a very clear upper tier with 2-3 goalies tops, a second tier with maybe 6-7 goalies, and a 3rd tier with starters that fall outside of that.

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    Default Re: HOLTBY not taken in Keeper! Do I grab him with my 2nd overall pick?

    Quote Originally Posted by Torontos #2 Fan View Post
    Hey guys, so HOLTBY isn't taken for my keeper league. And I've been trying to figure out if I should pick him up with my 2nd overall pick? Or is it too early to pick him up? Thanks for the input.
    Yes, especially with 30 keepers already taken, so really he's 31st which is a steal

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    re: Holtby having trade value as a 3rd G.
    No (my opinion).
    Besides there only being a top 12G in play... there could be a bunch of other goalies outside of the top 12 that, on any given night, may be a more attractive option.

    Say Halak (NYI) are playing against TOR...
    While Holtby (WAS) are playing against PIT...
    Who is the more likely win?

    Debatable, I suppose... but the point is that there are goalies #13-#60 in the NHL that could, on any given night, have more value than Holtby
    This isn't going to happen with skaters much.
    If Stamkos is playing (even against NJ) and Bobby Ryan is playing against TOR... is anybody really starting Ryan over Stamkos? Probably not. (Well, maybe one forum member - but that's all)

    In other words, with so many goalies "not counting", it makes for a depth of player pool that can be plucked at any given time.
    Quick example: Scott Darling. If Corey Crawford goes down with injury... Darling has immediate upper tier goalie value in this league.

    This sort of league is the one where Holtby has his lowest value... because the "relative difference" to the "floor" of counting goalies is not that far away (NHL Goalie #13... on ANY GIVEN NHL NIGHT).
    Awesome breakdown, but Holtby is the only goalie with such a low risk of getting hurt and a high likelihood of 40 wins. The only goalie. Lock in the position and don't look back.
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    Default Re: HOLTBY not taken in Keeper! Do I grab him with my 2nd overall pick?

    Form the other thread (linked below) he isn't rostering 2 goalies, he's starting 2 goalies. So that's a lower replacement value, than 13th - I cannot envision a start 2 goalie league where everyone rosters 2 goalies and only 2 goalies, unless it has a real weird set of rules where the roster is locked into a set number of positions - I've been in leagues like that for baseball & football, and it was mostly being better at waivers than the other people, and lucky come playoff time.

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    Default Re: HOLTBY not taken in Keeper! Do I grab him with my 2nd overall pick?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    re: Holtby having trade value as a 3rd G.
    No (my opinion).
    Besides there only being a top 12G in play... there could be a bunch of other goalies outside of the top 12 that, on any given night, may be a more attractive option.

    Say Halak (NYI) are playing against TOR...
    While Holtby (WAS) are playing against PIT...
    Who is the more likely win?

    Debatable, I suppose... but the point is that there are goalies #13-#60 in the NHL that could, on any given night, have more value than Holtby
    This isn't going to happen with skaters much.
    If Stamkos is playing (even against NJ) and Bobby Ryan is playing against TOR... is anybody really starting Ryan over Stamkos? Probably not. (Well, maybe one forum member - but that's all)

    In other words, with so many goalies "not counting", it makes for a depth of player pool that can be plucked at any given time.
    Quick example: Scott Darling. If Corey Crawford goes down with injury... Darling has immediate upper tier goalie value in this league.

    This sort of league is the one where Holtby has his lowest value... because the "relative difference" to the "floor" of counting goalies is not that far away (NHL Goalie #13... on ANY GIVEN NHL NIGHT).
    Hmmmm.... hmmmmm... who could you ever be referencing here?
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    Default Re: HOLTBY not taken in Keeper! Do I grab him with my 2nd overall pick?

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    Form the other thread (linked below) he isn't rostering 2 goalies, he's starting 2 goalies. So that's a lower replacement value, than 13th - I cannot envision a start 2 goalie league where everyone rosters 2 goalies and only 2 goalies, unless it has a real weird set of rules where the roster is locked into a set number of positions - I've been in leagues like that for baseball & football, and it was mostly being better at waivers than the other people, and lucky come playoff time.
    Well with deep fantasy hockey experience will tell you that you start losing starts based on "game conflict" when you start rostering that 3rd goalie.
    You could theoretically get 82gp from your G1 & G2, but your G3 would have 25-35 nights where he plays the same night... so you lose those starts.

    Conversely, if you roster a 13th F... there may only be 1-2 nights where a team's top 12F are all playing and you MUST bench that 13th F.
    In fact, its possible that you'll get 80 starts out of a 13th F, 75 starts out of a 14th F, and maybe 65 starts out of a 15th F. (source: 2016-2017 Same Night Tool, here on forums)

    Whereas that G3 may only have 55 open nights... and a G4 is maybe at 40 open nights.
    Washington is going to lose 1-2 solid defensemen at end of this year (Alzner is UFA) and Orlov probably gone to Las Vegas expansion.
    They'll have to pay Kuznetsov $6m+ and Burakovsky possibly $4.5m+.
    They are going to feel the cap/roster crunch like many past teams that put together that one or two big season before they came back to earth.
    I like Holtby, but it'll be no different for him. He'll get pulled back to the peloton after this year.

    Besides that, recent history of the NHL has shown that goalies that start 70+gp... their teams never win the cup.
    Go back and look through all the highest GP starting goalies of the last 10 years, the workhorses are usually out before the Conference Championships.
    Holtby is going to settle into starting 65gp and winning 60% (if WAS maintains excellence). 65x0.6=39w... not 48w... he will not maintain 45w+ over the next 3 years.

    Skater heavy wins this pool.
    And Holtby will be back <45w in one of the next two years. Write that in pen.

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    Default Re: HOLTBY not taken in Keeper! Do I grab him with my 2nd overall pick?

    Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but to be aware of:

    This is a H2H points league, which means it's your total weekly fantasy points that matter against your opponent, so it's important to understand how much each starting position contributes to that weekly total.

    Leaving out the bench for simplification, as they will be added in as and when needed. There are 12 forwards, 6 defensemen and 2 goalies = 20 players overall (+/- bench of course) that contribute to your totals. That means, ~10% of your weekly roster contribution are from goalies. How much would you expect to produce for each skater, each defenseman, and each goalie per week? That percentage would show much each player contributes to your weekly total.

    Without doing the calculations, I would expect that goalie contributions per week are relatively low, and since there expects to be some variation on a week-by-week basis, I would think that your skaters have a much higher significance to your squad each week. Perhaps you could look at that to see where the impact lies. Also, it could be useful to look at players' production on a per game basis to see who gives you the most bang for your buck (so to speak).

    As was mentioned, this is a shallow league so I'm not sure reaching for the best goalie this early is the best option. Of course, it depends on what options are available there, but you should be looking at what player to choose that should have the most impact to your squad as a whole on a weekly basis. Plus, shutouts are random and pretty much impossible to predict on a weekly basis.

    Let's not forget that this is a H2H league. Season totals don't matter as much, because all you need to do is beat your opponent each week. In this format, I'm going heavy on skaters because goalies' production tend to vary weekly and have a relatively lower impact on your overall weekly total.

    EDIT:

    Was just curious on total numbers for some of the top players (before you counter with my suggestion to look at it weekly - I'll let you do that. )

    Holtby (48 wins x 2) + (3 shutouts x 3) = 105
    Quick = 95
    Jones = 92
    Crawford = 91
    Bishop = 88
    .
    .
    Rinne = 80
    Rask = 74 (12th goalie in wins)

    Top skaters:

    Kane = 152
    Benn = 124
    Crosby = 118
    Thornton = 117
    Karlsson = 111
    ..
    .
    Bergeron = 99
    .
    .
    Perry = 92
    .
    .
    Schenn = 86

  8. #23
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    Default Re: HOLTBY not taken in Keeper! Do I grab him with my 2nd overall pick?

    Well with deep fantasy hockey experience will tell you that you start losing starts based on "game conflict" when you start rostering that 3rd goalie.
    You could theoretically get 82gp from your G1 & G2, but your G3 would have 25-35 nights where he plays the same night... so you lose those starts.
    I understand this point, but while skater depth will likely win the pool, I would think rostering 3 goalies will be pretty common, since a 15th forward is only going to net 10 more games than a 3rd goalie, and I would think that teams would want a 3rd goalie before a 16th-18th forward. Admittedly, we still have no answer to how many players make up his roster.

    Skater heavy may win the pool, but not if the team is goalie poor.
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