whichever one doesn't go to Vancouver! if neither do, then tkachuk will be a much better fantasy player. dubois might be better in real life.
I'd rather not say who I'm endorsing, as I own the #4 pick in my keeper league. But, I will say that based on everything I have read (and I have read a lot about this draft), and acknowledging that I have never seen either player live, it seems that Dubois is the more talented player and the more complete package. I think it is very close, though, and have moved back and forth on my preference. I haven't decided yet who I will select.
It also seems to me that, in a multi-cat league, Dubois would be the better pick as he appears to have more offensive upside (again, based on what have read) has a playing style similar to Tkachuk's so that he would generate other cats such as hits, PIMs and SOG. Also, he may have the bonus of FOW as he played centre for the last half of the season. At the very least he may generate FOWs in the manner of Jamie Benn who is good for a few hundred per year.
Also, Dubois is six months younger than Tkachuk, and at this age an extra six months of development can make a huge difference. Tkachuk has had the benefit of playing as an 18 year old in his draft year. Dubois does not turn 18 for a few more days.
whichever one doesn't go to Vancouver! if neither do, then tkachuk will be a much better fantasy player. dubois might be better in real life.
My bad: the "clearly" was from me, not Dobber. Here's what Dobber wrote exactly:
"Dubois for points only, and Tkachuk for multi-cat leagues (such as your league)"
That was the whole answer - but it does sound pretty confident to me I can see your points though and Dobber obviously doesn't own a crystall ball either. I'll still go with Tkachuk though as I'd rather need an LW (and it's not certain if Dubois will get C or LW eligibility or both).
24 team H2H dynasty, fantasy points, no cap
Skaters: G 4.5 (5 for Ds), A 3, PPG 1.5 (2 for Ds), PPA 1 (1.5 for Ds), SHP 2, Ft 2, HIT 0.6, BLK 0.6, SOG 0.3 (0.4 for Ds), FW 0.1, Tk 0.5 // Gv -0.3
Goalies: W 3.5, SHO 5, SV 0.5, A 3 // GA -3, L -1.5
4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G, 4BN, 4IR
C: McDavid, MacKinnon, Hischier
LW: B.Tkachuk, Ovechkin, Paul(C), Jankowski(C)
LW/RW: Meier, Fiala, Giroux(C), Niederreiter
RW: Reinhart, Anderson, Armia
D: Josi, Matheson, Durzi, Moser, Cernak, Zadorov, Siegenthaler
G: Daccord, Merzlikins, Vanecek, Pickard
44 minors; most noteables: A.Schmid, E.Andrae, M.Kesselring, S.Malinski, B.Pachal, L.Stanley, L.Bichsel, E.Soderblom,...
Awesome. Thanks for that clarification. (And sharing Dobber's comments specifically).
Seems like the scale tips toward Tkachuck slightly, more so if he doesn't land in Van and say Dubois does. Very helpful.
Now bring on the draft. I want some of these questions answered!!!
They are close. But its Dubois for me. His physicality exceeds Tkachuk and he, has already pointed out, has a higher points ceiling. Most I feel are on this notion that Tkachuk will go to Edmonton and thus is the better pick. From everything I've watched, Dubois is a guy who drives and dictates the play whether or not he has the puck. Tkachuk, while a big body, is kind of a peripheral player especially when he doesn't have the puck. He seems too reliant on his linemates at times and his high point production still has some testament to playing with Marner and Dvorak. I think Tkachuk will have the better short-term impact but Dubois will likely be the better pick down the road (3+ years).
This is the biggest factor IMO because the two players are very close. Tkachuk playing with Marner and Dvorak really boosted his point production, so many seem to feel Dubois is the better choice, BUT, Tkachuk playing with McDavid, RNH, Draisaitl, Hall, etc makes the stats he racked up on the Knights more relevant IMO. I also have #4 in this draft and am really hoping Dubois doesn't go to Vancouver.
Sorry... I have to do it...
I'm pulling my member card of the -chuk society out today.
We... us, Hockey-Chuks... we're all C-H-U-K...
Andreychuk, Hawerchuk, Kovalchuk, Sawchuk, Konawalchuk, Matviachuk, Boychuk, Malarchuk, Babchuk, Tkachuk... and many many others.
Always CHUK.
That's all.
Didn't read the rest of the thread... sorry, LOL... the -CHUK thing always grinds my gears.
MounD - Double Threat FHL (18-19 champs)
10-Team Yahoo daily H2H Dynasty
3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, 7Bn (IR)
G, A, +/-, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK // W, Sv, GAA, Sv%, SHO
C: Bergeron, Barkov, Aho, Point, Kadri
LW: Marchand, Landeskog, Hertl, Marchessault
RW: Stamkos, Tarasenko, Laine, Palmieri
D: Carlson, Letang, Dumba, Weber, Pietrangelo, Ristolainen, Byfuglien*
G: Bobrovsky, Holtby, Lehner, Greiss-Varlamov
Farm: Turcotte, Cozens, Denisenko, Newhook // Sandin, Jokiharju, Dobson, K'Andre // Shesterkin
WHL (24-Team Daily H2H)
Weighted Scoring: G(1),A(1),PPP(0.5),+/-(0.25), SOG/PIM/HIT/BLK(all 0.05), FOW-C(0.01)
Braham Pietasters
C(3): Barkov, Seguin, N.Schmaltz
LW(3): Gaudreau, Pacioretty, Hinostroza
RW(3): Radulov, Mantha, Dadonov
F(3): Bailey, Thornton, Vanek
D(6): Josi, Jones, Krug, Leddy, Ellis, Miller
G(1): Bishop (Sparks)
Bench: T. Wilson (RW), Boyle (C), Pirri (C), Boyd (C)
Farm: Myers (D), Husso (G), Soderstrom (G), Petersen (G), Anderson-Dolan (C), Pilut (D), Capobianco (D), Aho (D)
IIRC, Matthew Tkachuk had the highest Secondary-Assist rate of any OHL eligible draftee. Food for thought. Oh, but he has "grit" and "heart" and "compete" and he "plays the right way" ... gimme a break. I thought we were done with this unverifiable / intangible bullspit when evaluating potential talent.
MounD - Double Threat FHL (18-19 champs)
10-Team Yahoo daily H2H Dynasty
3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, 7Bn (IR)
G, A, +/-, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK // W, Sv, GAA, Sv%, SHO
C: Bergeron, Barkov, Aho, Point, Kadri
LW: Marchand, Landeskog, Hertl, Marchessault
RW: Stamkos, Tarasenko, Laine, Palmieri
D: Carlson, Letang, Dumba, Weber, Pietrangelo, Ristolainen, Byfuglien*
G: Bobrovsky, Holtby, Lehner, Greiss-Varlamov
Farm: Turcotte, Cozens, Denisenko, Newhook // Sandin, Jokiharju, Dobson, K'Andre // Shesterkin