[RUMOR/IMAGINED] - Matthews to ARI, OEL to TOR

[Mr. Guru]

And anyone thinking the leafs would 'only' take OEL for Mathews is also straight up delusional and insane.

This trade won't happen.

[Zorro]

That's the last thing we need... we're in serious need of a couple more top picks over the next two years.

When we're ready to compete... that's when we'll need a goalie.

I wasn't talking about a guy that would come in next season and lead them to the playoffs.. I'm talking about a young promising goalie that can grow in the minors and that will be good when this team is good.. Or is Sparks the future??

[Eskimo Brother]

I wasn't talking about a guy that would come in next season and lead them to the playoffs.. I'm talking about a young promising goalie that can grow in the minors and that will be good when this team is good.. Or is Sparks the future??

I don't see Sparks being the saviour goalie that the leafs need. He is more of a filler guy that can be decent in stretches, and would make a good backup goalie.

[2014olympicgold]

Sparks is unproven at this point. Can’t tell if he’s the one or not. But he has things to work on, but I like his “fighting” ability. He never gives up on a play and is 100% involved in everything. Reminds me of Reimer when Reimer first started playing for the Leafs. Rebound control is sub-par at best, but he makes the desperation saves, and doesn’t give up on anything.

[Eskimo Brother]

Sparks is unproven at this point. Can’t tell if he’s the one or not. But he has things to work on, but I like his “fighting” ability. He never gives up on a play and is 100% involved in everything. Reminds me of Reimer when Reimer first started playing for the Leafs. Rebound control is sub-par at best, but he makes the desperation saves, and doesn’t give up on anything.

I definitely like the Reimer comparison. He could definitely come up and fill some starts next year, being solid in stretches like Reimer was this year.

[theIceWookie]

There is no world where trading OEL for Matthews makes sense from Arizona's perspective. Everyone is fascinated by the idea of an Arizonan based star playing in Arizona, that they aren't thinking through what it would actually mean.

Matthews would be a great marketing tool for the Coyotes to use to try and boost their ticket sales, but that's not a guaranteed tool. It's a good place to start but it by no means ensures long term success for the franchise or for ticket sales.

And trading OEL+ to get him for that purpose is bonkers. The Leafs have all the power in this situation. They aren't going to just be friendly and trade Matthews could help another franchise be successful. They're going to want value and it's going to be significant value. But even if it was like OEL and the 7th, trading OEL absolutely crushes the long term chance of this team. OEL is there defense, they have no one to replace him and without him the defense is weak. Like hella weak. They're prospect pool also lacks any real high end defensive prospects.

Trading OEL hurts the team's stability long term. And that stability is the real thing that will help drive ticket success. A winning franchise that is stable will be a far more marketable asset than just Matthews alone can be.

Matthews to Arizona is one of the biggest pipedreams around right now.

[Sherpa]

There is no world where trading OEL for Matthews makes sense from Arizona's perspective. Everyone is fascinated by the idea of an Arizonan based star playing in Arizona, that they aren't thinking through what it would actually mean.

Matthews would be a great marketing tool for the Coyotes to use to try and boost their ticket sales, but that's not a guaranteed tool. It's a good place to start but it by no means ensures long term success for the franchise or for ticket sales.

And trading OEL+ to get him for that purpose is bonkers. The Leafs have all the power in this situation. They aren't going to just be friendly and trade Matthews could help another franchise be successful. They're going to want value and it's going to be significant value. But even if it was like OEL and the 7th, trading OEL absolutely crushes the long term chance of this team. OEL is there defense, they have no one to replace him and without him the defense is weak. Like hella weak. They're prospect pool also lacks any real high end defensive prospects.

Trading OEL hurts the team's stability long term. And that stability is the real thing that will help drive ticket success. A winning franchise that is stable will be a far more marketable asset than just Matthews alone can be.

Matthews to Arizona is one of the biggest pipedreams around right now.

I don't think anyone is approaching this subject like a trade is imminent or even remotely possible. It's simply a mental muse-bouche to carry us over until the draft finally arrives. I think the only real reason this is sticking in everyone's craw is that both teams involved can find legitimate justifications to make such a deal. But the risks are massive...for both sides. I can't really confirm each team's risk appetites but having watched the Leafs brass closely, I feel confident they've shed their gambling tendencies of yesteryear.

That's why it won't happen.

But it's fun to talk about and daydream a bit. Like who's most likely to stay in TB? Stamkos or Drouin or Bishop? You can make arguments for each staying or going.

[Pengwin7]

There is no world where trading OEL for Matthews makes sense from Arizona's perspective.
Trading OEL hurts the team's stability long term. And that stability is the real thing that will help drive ticket success.
Matthews to Arizona is one of the biggest pipedreams around right now.

I disagree strongly.

OEL is signed in Arizona for 3 more years.
He's a $8.5m player that they are paying $5.5m per year.
He's a +$3m/+$3m/+$3m value on the ice. That's $9m in player value PLUS he helps them win games, which brings in fans. TRUE.
That's his value to the Arizona organization.

But...
If the team will not be playoff (or championship) caliber before his contract ends, though, it DOES makes sense to entertain trading him.
(Just as ARI did even though Yandle had 1.25 years left on his contract in spring of 2015).
ARI is a young, emerging team... but I would not bet on them making playoffs in any of next 3 years.

OEL will be worth $9m or $10m as a UFA in 2019.
ARI + OEL... fans know what they are getting: same 'ol Yotes... a team that will lose more games than they win and that will miss the playoffs.
There is a point where fans want change... something different.
And they'd rather have a fantasy that things will be better - even if they actually get worse.

re: Matthews
Matthews is property of his team for his first 7 NHL seasons. SEVEN!
That value, IMO, is WAY higher than THREE years of a player that is likely (IMO) going to walk from the team in free agency.
Additionally, teams often negotiate their youngsters later RFA contracts to go a few years into their UFA, so maybe they get that player for 8... or 9... or 10 years!

7 years!
A drafted NHL player is property of some team, not of their choice, for their first 7 seasons (or until age 27).
After that - the assumption has to be, especially for non-market teams that are NOT winning, that the player will walk.
OEL is done in the desert after his contract is up. Write that in pen.

7+ years of Matthews for a young team >>> 3 years of OEL for a re-build team in a non-hockey market.

I don't see how some of you miss this.
If you are the Arizona GM... and you get offered Auston Matthews straight-up for OEL... you are telling me you are gonna say no?!
{Peng shaking head}

[iwinthings]

I think Arizona might do it but Toronto never would.

[Reuben]

7+ years of Matthews for a young team >>> 3 years of OEL for a re-build team in a non-hockey market.

I don't see how some of you miss this.
If you are the Arizona GM... and you get offered Auston Matthews straight-up for OEL... you are telling me you are gonna say no?!
{Peng shaking head}

So you've built an entire argument based on the premise that OEL would FOR SURE re-sign in Toronto after three years....and then made a comment at the bottom hinting that everyone else is nuts that we don't see it the same way as you.

Because - i've got news for you - Toronto is in a huge rebuild too. So why would they give up 7 years of a control over a franchise centre (+the marketing boost of a #1 pick) in order to get three years of a 25-year-old defenseman?
Can you guarantee OEL will re-sign in Toronto? He might hate it and go somewhere else after three years.

[GinFizz]

So you've built an entire argument based on the premise that OEL would FOR SURE re-sign in Toronto after three years....and then made a comment at the bottom hinting that everyone else is nuts that we don't see it the same way as you.

Because - i've got news for you - Toronto is in a huge rebuild too. So why would they give up 7 years of a control over a franchise centre (+the marketing boost of a #1 pick) in order to get three years of a 25-year-old defenseman?
Can you guarantee OEL will re-sign in Toronto? He might hate it and go somewhere else after three years.

Peng mentions in his post that he thinks OEL will walk. Maybe i misread his post but thats what i took away from it

[Reuben]

Peng mentions in his post that he thinks OEL will walk. Maybe i misread his post but thats what i took away from it

Yeah. But who says he stays in Toronto after three years? I know Peng is saying Arizona can't afford him, and assuming Toronto can...but there's more to it than just that.

[plug]

So you've built an entire argument based on the premise that OEL would FOR SURE re-sign in Toronto after three years....and then made a comment at the bottom hinting that everyone else is nuts that we don't see it the same way as you.

Because - i've got news for you - Toronto is in a huge rebuild too. So why would they give up 7 years of a control over a franchise centre (+the marketing boost of a #1 pick) in order to get three years of a 25-year-old defenseman?
Can you guarantee OEL will re-sign in Toronto? He might hate it and go somewhere else after three years.

I think you may have mis-read his post. He was arguing that it made sense for Arizona to make that trade if offered, nothing more.

[Reuben]

On further review, you guys are totally correct.

I'll leave the posts up, but I do stand corrected on this one.

Shoulda known better than to think Pengwin had some faulty logic...

[fungchen3]

I don't think the Yotes would put OEL in any deal, even one for Matthews.

That said, even without OEL, they still have enough pieces to get a deal done IMO ... if they're willing to "overpay" ... and the Leafs do feel they "will" sign Stamkos as their top line C for the next 7 years.

I can imagine a scenario where...

Toronto Maple Leafs get: Domi, Dvorak, 7th overall, 1st in 2017 (lottery protected)

Arizona Coyotes get: 1st overall (Matthews), Lupul, 3rd rounder in 2016

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Why the Leafs would do this:

By signing Stamkos, the Leafs are adding an elite-level, 1st line C to be the "face" of their franchise for the next 7 years (possibly through retirement with a follow-up deal). Slated behind Stamkos in the 2C slot is Kadri. In the deal with Arizona, the Leafs land a blue-chip C prospect in Dvorak with tremendous #2C upside, making them very respectable up the middle ... and that's without continuing to toy around with Nylander as top-end pivot.

However, the "big pieces" of the deal for the Buds are Domi and the 7th overall, which pretty much guarantees them one of Juolevi, Nylander, Jost, Chychrun, Brown, Sergachev (or Dubois if he miraculously falls a couple spots). IMO, the Leafs would target these players at 7 (in order):

1. Juolevi - Projects to be a top-pairing, transitional defender with excellent hockey IQ and vision. Along with Rielly, Juolevi would give the Leafs another stud on the blue line for the next decade who excels at the type of cerebral game coach Babcock professes. Juolevi has been compared to current NHLers (from best to worst): Keith, Ekman-Larsson, Josi, Lindholm, Maatta. Either way, Juolevi should be nothing less than a #2 D on a competitive team... or, worst case scenario, a #3 who anchors the 2nd D pairing and loads up on special teams.

2. Nylander - A dynamic, offensive player who projects to be a flashy, above-average scorer at the NHL level. Not to mention, the novelty factor of watching the "Flying Nylanders" work their magic in Toronto for years to come. If the Leafs are parting with Matthews, the attractiveness of the Nylanders teaming up together make for a great story in hockey-mad Leafland. And, this ranks 3rd in the pecking order behind the headlines created by "Stamkos Coming Home" and "Domi 2.0 in Toronto." In fact, Leaf fans would be so giddy about Stamkos, Domi and Nylander that Dvorak (a quality player in his own right) and another 1st next year coming back from the desert would be practically forgotten in all the hoopla.

3. Chychrun - A big, multi-dimensional defender with very nice upside. Once considered a Top 2-3 pick in the 2016 draft, Chychrun has slipped a bit, but he still projects to be a beefy D-Man who can skate, log big minutes, and hammer the puck. If he ends up a (good) version of Phaneuf, Jack Johnson or Jacob Trouba, the Leafs have a pillar on D they can build around in addition to Morgan Rielly.

4. Sergachev - His stock has risen this year similarly to Ivan Provorov's last year. This swift-skating Russian, who packs a cannon of a shot, has an untapped ceiling and could easily be considered an elite prospect - this time next year - just like countryman Provorov is today. Just imagine Ivan Provorov being the "3rd piece" in a deal for Auston Matthews, with Max Domi, Christian Dvorak and a 1st round pick in 2017 being the others. At the very least, imagine a player who can wire the puck like ex-Leaf Bryan McCabe running a PP with Morgan Rielly one day. At worst, he'd be a PP2 mainstay if Stamkos occupies a point on the 1st PP in Toronto.

So, assuming the obvious (that Matthews, Laine and Puljujarvi go 1-2-3), the Leafs are a lock to land one of the above four prospects along with the rest of the haul for the Matthews pick. Of course, this is based on Toronto feeling that a Stamkos signing is in the bag. And, we haven't really talked about the Domi impact. Not only will Max be loved in Toronto because of his style of play but the "Domi" name carries a certain amount of cache up there. Yes, it's a great story that Max gets to follow in his dad's footsteps, but let's not forget that he is an offensive spark plug with a wonderful shot and the ability to hover around a PPG in his prime. He's also blessed with loads of character and the "it factor" that Stanley Cup winning teams covet.

At the end of the day, Auston Matthews projects to be a franchise center in the NHL. We're talking a Jack Eickel, Ryan Getzlaf, Tyler Seguin, Jonathan Toews type of talent. These kids don't grow on trees - and will be organizational staples for more than a decade - but the Leafs must consider this deal based on how it can make them a better all-around team, considering Stamkos will be stepping into the same slot Matthews would conceivably occupy. As for the Leafs' core moving forward, just imagine...

Stamkos
JVR
Kadri
Domi
W.Nylander
Marner
Dvorak
Kapanen
Rielly
Juolevi / Chychrun / Sergachev
Gardiner
Zaitsev

etc. ... that's pretty darn impressive and it will accelerate any rebuild, by a lot.

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Why the Coyotes would do this:

Plain and simple, the Coyotes are absolutely licking their chops at the outside potential of landing the franchise center with local ties. Considering the Yotes could feasibly acquire Matthews without moving their franchise cornerstone in Ekman-Larsson (in this scenario), they are willing to gamble and "overpay" with additional assets to get a deal done. Arizona also has a few nice, young wingers in Duclair, Merkley and Perlini who can line up next to pivots like Matthews and Strome in the near future.

The opportunity to roll out Matthews and Strome up the middle is just too good to pass up for Arizona, even if the price is steep. Losing a 1st rounder in 2017 will indeed hurt, but the pick would be protected in the extreme event the Coyotes win the lottery. Losing Domi will also sting as he impressed everyone during his rookie season. While he's not the type of big center you build around, he showed flashes of being a Mark Recchi type of player - loaded with skill, character and enough moxie to one day be a top scorer on a contender. Even so, the Coyotes brass make the bold move and build around Matthews, Ekman-Larsson and Strome.

Despite the hefty tag, if John Chayka's first move as GM is a blockbuster that lands Auston Matthews, without parting with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, he'll be walking on water in Arizona. Wait, is there even water in the desert?!