Ghost will finish top 5 in points this year, and top 2 next year.

[StuntMan12]

Now I'm worried...IM GOING TO SHOP HIM AROUND MY LEAGUE!



Like right now!!!!

[Nikerato]

He won't.
I agree.

I love the guy, but they hype-train has completely derailed and is way off the tracks.
I really like the guy for offense, I do... but people are extrapolating his stats way too much.
Way, way, WAY too much.

Ghost is not a top pairing defenseman.
To score 55+ consistently, one MUST be a top pairing defenseman.
Karlsson IS, Subban IS, OEL IS, Doughty IS, Keith IS, Klingberg IS... Ghost is not.

Also - because of the new NHL.com, I can't find my old tab to watch all ten of his goals - I'd bet at least 8 or 9 of his 10 goals are scored exactly the same way, from point blasts/snaps with screens.
Ya know what... almost every NHL defenseman can do this.
Right now his shots are getting through.
Most NHL defensemen that bomb point shots score at about 5%-7%.
Ghost is up at 11.7% right now.
Some things to note on Ghost, he's basically got all three luck factors going his way:
1. PHI has been getting a ton of PPTOI, I'm not sure why, but they have (more on that later).
2. The shots are getting through.
3. They've been scoring at 3-on-3 and 4-on-3 in OT... and other opps, fortunate.
That's THREE things all going right for PHI & Ghost right now.

And we always notice when a rookie, especially a rookie defenseman, goes completely OFF in scoring, especially goals - we notice big goals, tying goals, go-ahead goals.
But it almost never sustains... and Ghost's scoring is too cookie-cutter for me. All the goals are coming the same way.
Eventually there are things like a slump... or a new coach... and his role gets shifted...
And then he's a 30pt player and we all wonder why we kept him or Parayko-d him... (I mean "hyped" him)... so much.

His PP scoring is his forte right now, but lets even put it in context per 60min of PPTOI.
I'd bet most people would think he'd be the NHL D-leader in production per PPTOI... nope.
Sorting by D-men who have been on for at least 10 goals for, 5-on-4 GF On/60 (courtesy of sort at behindthenet.ca)

1. Shattenkirk 12.78
2. Klingberg 9.90
3. A.Martinez 9.77
4. Krug 9.49
5. Ristolainen 9.22
6. R.Murray 8.98
7. Niskanen 8.55
8. Yannick Weber 8.69
9. Shea Weber 8.63
10. Roman Josi 8.47
11. Duncan Keith 8.38
12. John Carlson 8.30
13. Shayne Gostisbehere 8.03 (*Also, note the GF number for Ghost. 13. He has 18 PPP right now, what does that tell us?)
...
OK - the good news is that Shayne is generating PPP at a similar rate to guys like Josi/Keith/Carlson.
Those are good offensive players... and that's not a surprise, top PP1 D-men will pace for 25 PPP on average, every year.
25 PPP. That's the number. Know it.
Don't believe me, go look at Erik Karlsson.
He's the most dynamic PPP catalyst in the league.
He's good for 30 PPP yearly... so if that's what he's good for... peg everybody else down around 25 PPP.

...But Ghost is pacing for 40 PPP (he's got 18 PPP in 37gp) - and that's not sustainable.
Just look at a team like Boston.
Last year Patrice Bergeron had just 14 PPP... this year he has 20 PPP in first 50 or so games.
Last year Torey Krug had just 14 PPP... this year he has 13 PPP in first 50 or so games.

That's the comparable, btw, Torey Krug. Shoots at a nice level D-rate of 6% per year, and has done so.
No peaks or valleys yet... and Krug... 40pt D-man in year #1, year #2, year #3 (and his shots aren't getting through this year at just 1.8%, despite a ton of SOG).
*Krug actually getting off 3+ sog/gp... Ghost more around 2.5+ sog/gp.
I don't see them all that differently, except right now PHI is letting Shayne play top-center of PP, whereas Krug is usually more offset to one side of PP-unit.
But, like I said, these things change... PPP will come & go... 3-on-3 OTpoints will come & go.

Ghost is not a top two NHL D scorer.
Ghost is not a top five D scorer.
10-20 range, assuming (IF) the Flyers keep feeding him at the top of point.
Pengwin7 bookmark.

[btw. I'm not hating on Ghost. I really, really like the kid. He's gonna be a 35-50pt NHL D-man, with fluctuating PPP, Krug-like... but he's not 50+... and people making these threads are skewing minds, IMO... just word of caution to all owners of Ghost in limited-keepers... he does have a correct value... IMO... it's 43pts.]

This is an awful lot of text to simply point out that without consistent PP scoring, Ghost won't hit 50 consistently.

How about an equally thorough analysis about why you believe Ghost will never grow as a player?

[Pengwin7]

This is an awful lot of text to simply point out that without consistent PP scoring, Ghost won't hit 50 consistently.
How about an equally thorough analysis about why you believe Ghost will never grow as a player?

That's an awfully little amount of text to show me that you can't interpret my opinion correctly.

Let me clarify:
1. I DO believe Ghost has top level enough PP skills to notch 25 PPP per year. That's an ENORMOUS compliment for anybody to say about a rookie defenseman. HUGE.
2. I do NOT believe anybody can count on a defenseman to score any more than 30 PPP per year. Only 25 PPP can be counted on for most PP-QBs. (Karlsson 30 PPP, maybe Klingberg due to DAL forward strength. Even Klingberg is only at 14 PPP this year. Subban, for example, had 23 & 21 PPP last two years. If you bank on any more than 25 PPP for a D-man, it's likely you're pegging him too high.).
3. This means, for most defensemen to score 50+ pts per year, they've got to notch 25 ESP per year.
4. I can't see Ghost doing this because his even-strength all-around game is NOT good enough to log top minutes.

He's going to get about 20min/gp. About 4min/gp on PP... about 16min/gp ES... close to 0min/gp SH (not that SHTOI matters).
But most of the upper-tier scoring defensemen get 25min/gp. That's 4min/gp on PP... about 20min/gp ES + kill time (which doesn't factor into scoring).

20/16 = 1.25 or 25% MORE time.
So guys like Karlsson, Subban, OEL... these guys will actually play 25% MORE even-strength minutes than Ghost.
If the scoring "per minute" of all these guys is equal (which would be a HUGE compliment to Ghost) than they'd still score 25% more points at even-strength.
So if a guy like OEL scores 25pts ESP... that means ghost will score 80% of that... 20 ESP.

20 ESP + 25 PPP = 45pts.
I peg him at 43pts... because there will be a few games missed here & there.

PHI has a deep, deep pipleine of defensemen (in case you've missed it).
Morin, Sanheim, Provorov. These guys will eat more ESTOI than Ghost.
They are also likely to roster 1-2 veteran guys for leadership... not sure who that will be, but guaranteed somebody (possibly Streit still... we'll see).

Ghost is gonna be a good player.
But he's gonna be a 3rd-pairing defensemen who still gets top PP time.
20 ESP + 25 PPP.
And if he loses the PP-QB spot, for any reason, he can easily slip below 40pts.

Btw. I didn't say Ghost wouldn't grow as a player.
Where did I ever say that?
Don't do that - pretend like I'm saying something I'm not.
I'm a Ghost fan... I just think they hype-train is off the tracks AND I'm trying to walk people through why 50+pts is gonna be tough for him.

[Also - you can choose to put stock in this or not... but I've played 80% of my own youth/adult hockey at the D-position and most of time I play PP1 blueline. I'm 5'-9" offensive-skilled under-sized D-man. I've got a really good idea where Ghost is gonna fit into the NHL. I read the game very well... "not just a stat-guy" - which people unfortunately tend to peg me in because I like numbers.]

[Nikerato]

I'm detecting a lot of salt over nothing lol. My post was short but not mean.

You already went through 1, 2, and 3 with enough detail. Which is why I asked about 4 because you still haven't clarified why you think that. Nothing was interpreted incorrectly.

Sure, you didn't say that he wouldn't grow as a player in those exact words, but you sure did imply it. You just stated he will be a third pairing guy who gets PP time. How is that even an improvement over what he's doing right now?

I'm not being mean here. I'm exercising brevity because I'm short on time. I was curious as to why you think his "even-strength game is NOT good enough" to earn a more prominent role on the team; if you don't want to answer that's fine. I won't tug on that thread again.

[lucafen4]

That's an awfully little amount of text to show me that you can't interpret my opinion correctly.

Let me clarify:
1. I DO believe Ghost has top level enough PP skills to notch 25 PPP per year. That's an ENORMOUS compliment for anybody to say about a rookie defenseman. HUGE.
2. I do NOT believe anybody can count on a defenseman to score any more than 30 PPP per year. Only 25 PPP can be counted on for most PP-QBs. (Karlsson 30 PPP, maybe Klingberg due to DAL forward strength. Even Klingberg is only at 14 PPP this year. Subban, for example, had 23 & 21 PPP last two years. If you bank on any more than 25 PPP for a D-man, it's likely you're pegging him too high.).
3. This means, for most defensemen to score 50+ pts per year, they've got to notch 25 ESP per year.
4. I can't see Ghost doing this because his even-strength all-around game is NOT good enough to log top minutes.

He's going to get about 20min/gp. About 4min/gp on PP... about 16min/gp ES... close to 0min/gp SH (not that SHTOI matters).
But most of the upper-tier scoring defensemen get 25min/gp. That's 4min/gp on PP... about 20min/gp ES + kill time (which doesn't factor into scoring).

20/16 = 1.25 or 25% MORE time.
So guys like Karlsson, Subban, OEL... these guys will actually play 25% MORE even-strength minutes than Ghost.
If the scoring "per minute" of all these guys is equal (which would be a HUGE compliment to Ghost) than they'd still score 25% more points at even-strength.
So if a guy like OEL scores 25pts ESP... that means ghost will score 80% of that... 20 ESP.

20 ESP + 25 PPP = 45pts.
I peg him at 43pts... because there will be a few games missed here & there.

PHI has a deep, deep pipleine of defensemen (in case you've missed it).
Morin, Sanheim, Provorov. These guys will eat more ESTOI than Ghost.
They are also likely to roster 1-2 veteran guys for leadership... not sure who that will be, but guaranteed somebody (possibly Streit still... we'll see).

Ghost is gonna be a good player.
But he's gonna be a 3rd-pairing defensemen who still gets top PP time.
20 ESP + 25 PPP.
And if he loses the PP-QB spot, for any reason, he can easily slip below 40pts.

Btw. I didn't say Ghost wouldn't grow as a player.
Where did I ever say that?
Don't do that - pretend like I'm saying something I'm not.
I'm a Ghost fan... I just think they hype-train is off the tracks AND I'm trying to walk people through why 50+pts is gonna be tough for him.

[Also - you can choose to put stock in this or not... but I've played 80% of my own youth/adult hockey at the D-position and most of time I play PP1 blueline. I'm 5'-9" offensive-skilled under-sized D-man. I've got a really good idea where Ghost is gonna fit into the NHL. I read the game very well... "not just a stat-guy" - which people unfortunately tend to peg me in because I like numbers.]

This, along with a gut feeling convinced me to trade Ghost about 20 minutes ago...

The return: Parayko & Provorov. I think I suffer slightly this year, but in next year + beyond I believe I come out far far ahead.

I think regardless of player, if the return is beyond that players valuation, you make the deal. I made the deal.

I didn't give up on Ghost, I cashed in on Ghost.

[rtstr]

This, along with a gut feeling convinced me to trade Ghost about 20 minutes ago...

The return: Parayko & Provorov. I think I suffer slightly this year, but in next year + beyond I believe I come out far far ahead.

I think regardless of player, if the return is beyond that players valuation, you make the deal. I made the deal.

I didn't give up on Ghost, I cashed in on Ghost.

Interesting, I wouldn't trade Ghost for that package in a million years. I don't see any logic that says you'll be "far far ahead" by next year (or beyond). You could've gotten a lot more in my opinion, but best of luck!

[lucafen4]

Interesting, I wouldn't trade Ghost for that package in a million years. I don't see any logic that says you'll be "far far ahead" by next year (or beyond). You could've gotten a lot more in my opinion, but best of luck!

Ghost > Parayko - agreed

I'll spot you 2016/17 season, or a wash

Parayko & Provorov >> Ghost

[rtstr]

Ghost > Parayko - agreed

I'll spot you 2016/17 season, or a wash

Parayko & Provorov >> Ghost

I don't think so. I think Parayko has little to no value in fantasy-- nothing more than a depth guy in my opinion, especially in a 12 team league with small rosters like yours. I never understood the hype.

I also think Provorov is going to be a stud, but I think his expectations should be different now that Ghost has emerged as such an effective PP QB. I'm not even prepared to confidently say that Provorov will ever outpoint Ghost. If he's so much better than him, he'd be the one on the Flyers right now. I also think Provorov will be a better player in his own end so he won't have the luxury of getting quite as many cake minutes as Ghost does moving forward. Both are great owns, though.

[Reuben]

Very interesting thread. I've actually been thinking of keeping Ghost over Faulk in a points-only (I've got a deep D - Karlsson, OEL, Josi as well) and only want to keep four.

But my theory is that Faulk will have to contend with Hanifin very soon. Maybe Ghost has that issue coming up too

[fungchen3]

I LOVE Provorov but I'm not sold on Parayko. In the long-run I think Provorov will be an absolute stud! Just don't know I would have cashed in the Ghost chip just now. They recently reported that Ghost's first 35 game PPG is higher than Potvin, Bourque and Orr. There's a lot to like here. P7 or Olympic might be proven right; I might be proven right... time will tell. All I know is there is a lot to like about Ghost in fantasy - I don't think you fluke your way into 31 points in your first 37 GP as a rookie defenseman.

I see...

1. Money on the PP
2. 3 on 3 OT
3. Ability to improve ES play
4. Better D partner down the line

... as the reasons Ghost will be a 50-55 player moving forward... with 60+ "upside". Will I be right? Let's see in 3-4 years

I might be stubborn when it comes to Ghost but I was bullish on OEL and Ristolainen the last couple of years (when a bunch of people listed reasons why these guys WOULDN'T produce at a big-time level offensively). Sometimes you just get "feelings" about players. I remember saying Karlsson would score 70 and ultimately be the only defenseman to break 80... during the summer after his ROOKIE year. People thought I was insane. Well, maybe I am, but I was right in those cases. Then again, I thought Adam Larsson would be scoring 40-45 points by now... so... win some, lose some.

[rtstr]

I LOVE Provorov but I'm not sold on Parayko. In the long-run I think Provorov will be an absolute stud! Just don't know I would have cashed in the Ghost chip just now. They recently reported that Ghost's first 35 game PPG is higher than Potvin, Bourque and Orr. There's a lot to like here. P7 or Olympic might be proven right; I might be proven right... time will tell. All I know is there is a lot to like about Ghost in fantasy - I don't think you fluke your way into 31 points in your first 37 GP as a rookie defenseman.

I see...

1. Money on the PP
2. 3 on 3 OT
3. Ability to improve ES play
4. Better D partner down the line

... as the reasons Ghost will be a 50-55 player moving forward... with 60+ "upside". Will I be right? Let's see in 3-4 years

I might be stubborn when it comes to Ghost but I was bullish on OEL and Ristolainen the last couple of years (when a bunch of people listed reasons why these guys WOULDN'T produce at big-time level offensively). Sometimes you just get "feelings" about players. I remember saying Karlsson would score 70 and ultimately be the only defenseman to break 80... during the summer after his ROOKIE year. People thought I was insane. Well, maybe I am, but I was right in those cases. Then again, I thought Adam Larsson would be scoring 40-45 points by now... so... win some, lose some.

Great post.

here's food for thought, though.... Just about everyone has both Ghost and Provorov somewhere in the 45-60+ point range for upside. Does anyone think it's even possible for one team to have two dmen hit 50 points in today's NHL? I personally don't think it is, which is why I find this situation to be particularly tough to predict, and why I think Ghost is the better own today.

[lucafen4]

I don't think so. I think Parayko has little to no value in fantasy-- nothing more than a depth guy in my opinion, especially in a 12 team league with small rosters like yours. I never understood the hype.

I also think Provorov is going to be a stud, but I think his expectations should be different now that Ghost has emerged as such an effective PP QB. I'm not even prepared to confidently say that Provorov will ever outpoint Ghost. If he's so much better than him, he'd be the one on the Flyers right now. I also think Provorov will be a better player in his own end so he won't have the luxury of getting quite as many cake minutes as Ghost does moving forward. Both are great owns, though.

Ghost was not a member of the Flyers at 18, @ 22 he cracked the roster due to a Streit injury. He also has 3 years of NCAA & a derailed season of AHL hockey (2 games) under his belt - Provorov, just turned 19... so to say he should be on the Flyers right now is getting ahead of ourselves a bit. There's no guarantee he'll be on the roster next season either. That said, there is no guarantee Ghost can maintain or repeat this performance.

[rtstr]

Ghost was not a member of the Flyers at 18, @ 22 he cracked the roster due to a Streit injury. He also has 3 years of NCAA & a derailed season of AHL hockey (2 games) under his belt - Provorov, just turned 19... so to say he should be on the Flyers right now is getting ahead of ourselves a bit. There's no guarantee he'll be on the roster next season either. That said, there is no guarantee Ghost can maintain or repeat this performance.

I didn't meant to say he should be on the Flyers right now, I just mean that if he were better than Ghost he would be. That is a true statement. Today, Ghost is the better player than Provorov. That's not to say Provorov won't become better, though. But that, too, is not guaranteed. I think it'll take at least 3 more years until Provorov is scoring at the pace that Ghost is scoring NOW. That says a lot in my opinion.

[forumname]

Does anyone think it's even possible for one team to have two dmen hit 50 points in today's NHL? I personally don't think it is

Montreal did this last year, and Calgary was only 2 points off. Nashville and Washington were also very close (5 points off).

[LeTrefle]

... Does anyone think it's even possible for one team to have two dmen hit 50 points in today's NHL? ...

Last season, Subban had 60 and Markov had 50