Yahoo Daily Fantasy Hockey Contests (?)

[Pengwin7]

Just curious if any of you are participating.
Right now, the popularity is low.

I actually tried to enter a Sunday pool that was "G" marked for "Guaranteed to Run", and had only 6/10 participants. $109 buy-in, $1000 total payout.
Sort of glad I didn't as Lundqvist (NYR) actually lost to Schneider (NJ)... likely maybe only one guy picked NJ and probably took the house.

Most of the Yahoo! leagues are taking a 10%-15% vig.
Ultimately, I don't like gambling unless there is a positive rake to the participant (which should not happen).

But the hockey popularity is so low, that these leagues aren't filling up.
Even the guaranteed to run leagues don't appear to be filling up.

For example, right now there are only 599/1100 entries for the $5 league. (up to 604 as I type this)
That's $3000 into the pot... which is guaranteed to payout $5000.
So that's nice ROI (return on investment), even by randomized finish.

Perhaps others have noticed... soon, everybody will be hip to it.
But right now, there's some nice cut for anybody joining a GUARANTEED TO RUN, yet partially filled pool.

(not that I advocate betting, but I know a good opportunity when I see one.)

[PenguinHunter]

I wonder if people are nervous about joining these pools after all the insider trading with the two big companies.

Or if people prefer betting on the more advertised, more well known FanDuel and DraftKings.

I know contradicting thoughts... but maybe both apply in some form or another.

[rataylor22]

I actually think DFS hockey sucks. And I've just started playing DFS Football this year and loved it immediately. Hockey has so much more variance. On a random night, Crosby can get shutout by Buffalo and then get 5 points against Price the next night. With football, the top guys get stats. Julio Jones might not be worth his price, but you won't just get shut out.

Way way way too much randomness and variance in hockey on a single night basis.

[LEAFS225]

I tried adding funds but it said I was blocked because of my location.

[rangerfan2430]

I actually think DFS hockey sucks. And I've just started playing DFS Football this year and loved it immediately. Hockey has so much more variance. On a random night, Crosby can get shutout by Buffalo and then get 5 points against Price the next night. With football, the top guys get stats. Julio Jones might not be worth his price, but you won't just get shut out.

Way way way too much randomness and variance in hockey on a single night basis.

I completely agree. I don't really like daily fantasy hockey for that reason

[dooley89]

I would be all over this if it was available in Canada.
I feel like a large majority of participants could be very new to DFS, which would be great for me!

[Pengwin7]

Just bumping.
Anybody doing Yahoo!

I'm constantly curious how the daily thing goes for pools of:
*small quantity entries
*large quantity entries

Right now, the Yahoo! has a $109 50/50 for 10 entrants.
The top 5 wins $200 (or +91 on their $100 bet).

The strange thing it is marked "G": Guaranteed to Run
Previous mornings there was 5 or 6 (of 10 spots) occupied.
Today it is only 1... (oh, just bumped to 2).

In a 10-person pool, you probably just need to make "good pick" to win.
There is also a 681-entry-spot pool for $5, with $300 to first.

With only 2 NHL games (4 goalies), I have to wonder if you need to force yourself to pick a MINORITY shot goalie, just to increase your odds of being in the "correct group".

As an example, tonight's goalie:
*Condon (MON) vs. PIT
*Fleury (PIT) vs. MON
*Khudobin (ANA) vs. EDM
*Talbot (EDM) vs. ANA

I'm guessing, the distribution might be:
150 pick Condon
200 pick Fleury
350 pick Khudobin (expecting ANA to win against EDM)...
...
And maybe 81 pick Talbot (expecting EDM to lose)

And let's say the odds for any team to win are:
45% MON
55% PIT
...
60% ANA
40% EDM


If everybody picks same "skaters", then one's random chance to win their "goalie-pick group" is:
45% x 150 people for Condon = 67.5
55% x 200 people for Fleury = 110
60% x 350 people for Khudobin = 210
40% x 81 people for Talbot = 32.4

Even if Talbot has the lowest odds to win... the smaller size of group in a large-quantity pool makes him the right pick (if odds are weighted properly).

Anyways, just wondering if anybody bets in these different "quantity entrant" sized pools and whether they adjust their strategy to be more "extreme" if there is more entrants.
[I always pick obscure Final Four picks in ESPN's NCAA pools, because I know I'm in with 100,000s of people if I just go with MSU,Duke,NC,Kansas,Kentucky... the powerhouses... I usually pick teams like Villanova or Wake Forest to win, they never do, but if/when they do... maybe you'll see my name with the list of winners!]

[Daydream Nation]

I actually think DFS hockey sucks. And I've just started playing DFS Football this year and loved it immediately. Hockey has so much more variance. On a random night, Crosby can get shutout by Buffalo and then get 5 points against Price the next night. With football, the top guys get stats. Julio Jones might not be worth his price, but you won't just get shut out.

Way way way too much randomness and variance in hockey on a single night basis.

Agreed. Wish they did this on a weekly basis.

Love playing daily leagues for Nascar.

[JagrBomb]

I tried adding funds but it said I was blocked because of my location.

this is blocked in canada?

hockey betting...blocked in the biggest hockey market? uhh what?

[PensInThree]

With only 2 NHL games (4 goalies), I have to wonder if you need to force yourself to pick a MINORITY shot goalie, just to increase your odds of being in the "correct group".

As an example, tonight's goalie:
*Condon (MON) vs. PIT
*Fleury (PIT) vs. MON
*Khudobin (ANA) vs. EDM
*Talbot (EDM) vs. ANA

I'm guessing, the distribution might be:
150 pick Condon
200 pick Fleury
350 pick Khudobin (expecting ANA to win against EDM)...
...
And maybe 81 pick Talbot (expecting EDM to lose)

And let's say the odds for any team to win are:
45% MON
55% PIT
...
60% ANA
40% EDM


If everybody picks same "skaters", then one's random chance to win their "goalie-pick group" is:
45% x 150 people for Condon = 67.5
55% x 200 people for Fleury = 110
60% x 350 people for Khudobin = 210
40% x 81 people for Talbot = 32.4

Even if Talbot has the lowest odds to win... the smaller size of group in a large-quantity pool makes him the right pick (if odds are weighted properly).

So, I'm not doing Yahoo as its blocked in Canada. But this is the precise strategy I use in Fanduel $1 or $2 tourney's with 4000 or so entrants. I started a couple weeks ago and I'm even so far. Haven't hit big yet but it's just a matter of time. Right? Right...?

Anyways, on a related note, I tried to explain this math to my wife on a car ride. She listened, and at the end said: next time can you just give me the punch line?

[PensInThree]

Also - I thought Andersen was confirmed for tonight. You hearing Khudobin?

[Axeman33]

I have never tried their daily contest and I wish they would stop with the stupid pop-up asking me every time I log in. They need to add an option to stop asking members if they want to participate. Extremely frustrating.

[dooley89]

Also - I thought Andersen was confirmed for tonight. You hearing Khudobin?

Andersen is in lol

[dooley89]

Just bumping.
Anybody doing Yahoo!

I'm constantly curious how the daily thing goes for pools of:
*small quantity entries
*large quantity entries

Right now, the Yahoo! has a $109 50/50 for 10 entrants.
The top 5 wins $200 (or +91 on their $100 bet).

The strange thing it is marked "G": Guaranteed to Run
Previous mornings there was 5 or 6 (of 10 spots) occupied.
Today it is only 1... (oh, just bumped to 2).

In a 10-person pool, you probably just need to make "good pick" to win.
There is also a 681-entry-spot pool for $5, with $300 to first.

With only 2 NHL games (4 goalies), I have to wonder if you need to force yourself to pick a MINORITY shot goalie, just to increase your odds of being in the "correct group".

As an example, tonight's goalie:
*Condon (MON) vs. PIT
*Fleury (PIT) vs. MON
*Khudobin (ANA) vs. EDM
*Talbot (EDM) vs. ANA

I'm guessing, the distribution might be:
150 pick Condon
200 pick Fleury
350 pick Khudobin (expecting ANA to win against EDM)...
...
And maybe 81 pick Talbot (expecting EDM to lose)

And let's say the odds for any team to win are:
45% MON
55% PIT
...
60% ANA
40% EDM


If everybody picks same "skaters", then one's random chance to win their "goalie-pick group" is:
45% x 150 people for Condon = 67.5
55% x 200 people for Fleury = 110
60% x 350 people for Khudobin = 210
40% x 81 people for Talbot = 32.4

Even if Talbot has the lowest odds to win... the smaller size of group in a large-quantity pool makes him the right pick (if odds are weighted properly).

Anyways, just wondering if anybody bets in these different "quantity entrant" sized pools and whether they adjust their strategy to be more "extreme" if there is more entrants.
[I always pick obscure Final Four picks in ESPN's NCAA pools, because I know I'm in with 100,000s of people if I just go with MSU,Duke,NC,Kansas,Kentucky... the powerhouses... I usually pick teams like Villanova or Wake Forest to win, they never do, but if/when they do... maybe you'll see my name with the list of winners!]

Good info P7!
Are you positive the Yahoo leagues run if they don't fill up? Is there a possibility that contests get combined?
I just downloaded my CSV history on draft kings and just with a quick glance I don't see a time where a contest was not FULL?

I have had split success with the "extreme" picks.
One time I went ALL-IN with Toronto vs Dallas (most of my players were under 10% drafted, while the DAL players were over 35% (Seguin/Benn at 50%)).
I won my biggest payout so far on that contest but have not been able to repeat that success since (with the extreme picks).
I went with a heavy favorite in SJS one time and they showed up and I won, but my 2 REQUIRED other-team players also did VERY well to push me ahead of the SJS pack.

On a night like tonight (2 games) I am entering 4 different lineups, each one favoring a team and their goalie.
Now this is NOT guaranteed to win me money and I know that lol but I am not one of those guys who enters 40 lineups per contest, covering all basis.
On a night like tonight, Andersen could be the best goalie while Taylor Hall could also be the best forward, however, not usually suggested to draft players who are against eachother. If hall lights it up, Andersen sucks. But if Hall takes 15 shots like OV did the other night and Andersen stops them all, now we are talking.

The possibilities are endless....

You are on to something though because there are some guys who ALWAYS win, I see them in the standings in money positions all the time.
They seem to just pick the BEST lineup possible, and they always have multiple lineups.

It will be very interesting to see who wins tonight, I have a feeling the winner will have 1-2 players from all 4 teams and the BEST goalie of the night.
If Anaheim loses 3-1 but Kesler gets 1G, essentially everyone who loaded up on ANA will LOSE- however, the genius who decided to pick Kesler with his MTL lineup, wins.

I think I definitely blabbered on and I'm exhausted from the CHI roadtrip I was just on (1900km round trip lol) but I think some of this may make sense lol


Punch Line: Need horseshoes up ass to win $ (some thinking required)

[Pengwin7]

Good info P7!
Are you positive the Yahoo leagues run if they don't fill up? Is there a possibility that contests get combined?
I just downloaded my CSV history on draft kings and just with a quick glance I don't see a time where a contest was not FULL?

The possibilities are endless....

You are on to something though because there are some guys who ALWAYS win, I see them in the standings in money positions all the time.
They seem to just pick the BEST lineup possible, and they always have multiple lineups.

There is 30min until close and there are definitely contests marked as "G" for "Guaranteed to Run".
I don't think Yahoo! would do that unless it were true.
In the $109 entry pool (to win $200) it's currently only at 7/10 entries.
The lowest by capacity right now is a "Double Up" pool with $25 entry. There's only 25/45 people in that as of now, marked "G".
I guess we don't have anybody that plays.

Yeah - the smart betters will show up winning most times because they hedge their bets on all "extreme" possibilities.
They realize that it is smarter to put all their chips on a few linemates rather than spread them out over the best players.

Go, Giroux-Voracek-Raffl (say) rather than Giroux-Pacioretty-Ladd