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Thread: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

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    Question What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    Hi All,

    This year I'm embarking in not only my first Roto Fantasy League but also the largest league (15 teams, 19players/team) I've ever been a part of. Until now I've been involved only in leagues of 10 teams, so adding another 5 teams at 19players/team will most definitely throw my drafting experience off a bit...

    I was curious how one's drafting strategy changes based on the number of teams in a league? Also, where would you, personally, prefer to draft in a one-year 15-team roto league snake draft and why? Just want to pick some brains and hear some strategies from those who are or have been a part of similar leagues.

    Thanks in advance, and, as always, REP to come!
    FANTASY LEAGUE: "Hockey Night on Hoth" (est. 2012)
    TEAM NAME: "The Barrelriders"

    FORMAT: H2H Keeper League (Keep 4 - no more than two per position)
    TEAM FORMAT: 12 Teams, 17 Players per Team (3C, 4W, 3D, 2G, 5Util)
    STAT CATS: G, A, P, PPP, FW, Shots, Hits, Blocks | Wins, SVS, GAA, SV%

    MY TEAM:

    C | N. Mackinnon,
    W | J. Benn, J. Pavelski
    D |
    G | A. Vasilevskiy

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    Default Re: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    Tell me categories & roster (starting & bench) allocation and I'll tell you my preferred positions to draft.
    It starts with goalie info... start 1G vs. start 2G creates two VERY different strategies in a 15-teamer.

    Generally, the #1 spot is the best spot.
    Ovechkin dominated multi-cat ROTO leagues last year.

    It also gives you "the turn", which is nice to have two consecutive picks.
    Though I actually personally believe there is "value" if you are "just off the turn" (2nd or 3rd pick from turn)... because you can check team "inside" you and take the position player the NEED before them and wait on the position player they HAVE for after their turns.

    Drafts are all about value-per-pickspot.
    You can gain this value by either:
    i) Anticipating a player to have a breakout year... or
    ii) Simply catching a player who slides a few (/several) spots more than they should.

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    Default Re: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    If you're talking strategy for picking through the draft, penguin right. Being near or at the turn has distinct advantages because you can pick based on what the teams inside you already have. For example, if the two teams inside you have their goalies basically full and there is the last of the second tier goalies still hanging there. You can pick a different position with your first pick knowing that the goalie will almost assuredly still be there for your next pick.

    If you are in. The middle it really doesn't matter much in the heart of the draft because you don't have much control or insight into what others will be doing. But being in the middle for round one and two has some distinct advantages as well. There is a definite drop off in elite talent around the 7-9 pick, so if you can be in there and grab the last of the elite, you will have the advantage of picking first on the way back. It's less of the strategic advantage as above, but there is some edges you can make. Grabbing the last of a tier is the way to win any draft.

    14 Team, Keep14 Farm5, 82GP Cap/Position
    Skaters: Points only, Goalies 2ptWin/3ptSO
    Start: 4C,4LW,4RW,6D,2G
    C- Crosby, Zibanejad, Couturier, Zacha, Frost
    LW- Marchand, Huberdeau, McTavish, Rackell, Kuzmenko
    RW- Konecny, Necas, Caufield, Jarvis, Lafreniere
    D- Hughes, Carlson, Werenski, Chychrun, Andersson, Dobson, Weegar
    G- Andersen, Merzlikins, Daccord, Jones
    Farm- Johnston, Foerster, Tarasov, Hutson, Reinbacher
    Picks-1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11

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    Default Re: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    I like being around 5th or 6th range, assuming 12-14 teams. I like swooping in and getting Giroux or Seguin or whoever is there at 5 or 6. I feel I've got an Art Ross contender, and don't have to wait quite as long as the 1st, 2nd overall folks to pick again. I also get to anticipate what the teams I'm before and after in the "turn" of the draft (end of rd 2, start of rd 3 and so on) are going to take based on whos still available and who they need.

    12 team H2H Most Cats Wins; Keep 6/winner keeps 7; G A PPP +/- SHP SOG HIT BLK PIM // W SV GAA SV% SHO
    3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 6D, 2G, 5 bench

    C - McDavid, Crosby, Tavares
    LW - DeBrincat
    RW - Meier, Miller
    D -
    G - Jarry

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    Default Re: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Tell me categories & roster (starting & bench) allocation and I'll tell you my preferred positions to draft.
    It starts with goalie info... start 1G vs. start 2G creates two VERY different strategies in a 15-teamer.
    It's a start 2G league and the stat cats are as follows:

    GOALS (25) | ASSISTS (25) | +/- (10) | SOG (2) | PIM (3) | PPG (10) | SHG (20) | SHA (10) | GWG (20) | HAT TRICKS (25) ------- WINS (40) | GOALS AGAINST (-15) | SVS (2) | SO (50) | OTL (20)

    I understand the necessity of getting good goalies in a 15-team, start2G league, as that means 30 goalies will be gone and there's not even 30 confirmed starters/reliable goalies to choose from going into the season.

    I also understand the benefit of being close to the turn of the snake draft for the reasons you all mentioned above, but do you find it more difficult to anticipate who will still be available with such a large gap between your picks? In a 15-team league, you may have to wait 27 or 28 picks before it comes around to you. That's a lot of players and your strategy could go out the door. I find at least in mid-round picks, you pick at a consistent rate and it's easier to gauge who will be next and what position you will get.

    Again, I'm no expert, especially for ROTO so any input is greatly appreciated. Just trying to develop some strategy going into the draft (which is in a couple weeks!)
    FANTASY LEAGUE: "Hockey Night on Hoth" (est. 2012)
    TEAM NAME: "The Barrelriders"

    FORMAT: H2H Keeper League (Keep 4 - no more than two per position)
    TEAM FORMAT: 12 Teams, 17 Players per Team (3C, 4W, 3D, 2G, 5Util)
    STAT CATS: G, A, P, PPP, FW, Shots, Hits, Blocks | Wins, SVS, GAA, SV%

    MY TEAM:

    C | N. Mackinnon,
    W | J. Benn, J. Pavelski
    D |
    G | A. Vasilevskiy

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    Default Re: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    ^For ease of analysis, I'm going to divide everything by 20.

    G=1.25
    A=1.25
    +/- = 0.5
    SOG = 0.1
    PIM = 0.15
    PPG = 0.5
    GWG = 1

    W=2
    SO=2.5
    GA=-.75
    SV=.1

    The league has an emphasis on "goals" for skaters.
    For goalies, you have 30 starting G slots.

    While I normally like the #1... with 30 #1 goalies in play, I can just about guarantee that after the top 7 skaters (OV, Crosby, Tavares, Stamkos, Seguin, Benn, Giroux) there will be a MASSIVE goalie run. From 5-29... I'd expect about 15-20 goalies to fly off the shelves... which means the person who drafted Ovechkin at #1 is probably looking at something like a R.Miller/S.Mason combo for their goalies, ugh. Meanwhile, if there is a goalie run, it will leave decent skaters still on the board. Guys like Pat Kane & Kessel & Hall & Karlsson & Subban & Perry & Getzlaf may all be there even in the 3rd round!!!

    Because this league is "goal heavy", I probably still want the #1 to take Ovechkin, who is not only a massive differential on the next skater, but the next tier of guys is more playmakers (except Stamkos).

    My preference in this league:
    #1 (Ovechkin)
    #13
    #14
    #15
    #4 (PRICE)
    #2 (Crosby)
    #3 (Stamkos)
    #12
    #11
    #10
    #9
    #8
    #7
    #6
    #5 (Price... IF... IF! he's there at #5 or higher)


    If I have the #4... I'd probably go PRICE.
    Everything between 4-15... I'm going G-G first two rounds because of league format with goalies.

    Good luck!!!

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    Default Re: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    Can you clarify something please? You say it's your first Roto league but when you showed the categories and values, that looks like a weighted points league to me. Is that right? Basically you have one total for your team that accumulates for the entire season? To clarify roto, that is each category is given points based on your ranking vs other managers e.g. first in goals gives you 15 points, second 14...and last 1. Add all these ranking points together and that gives you your total at that stage of the season.

    With that in mind, for me - and may be a bit away from the advice you're seeking - what's important is how much each player (you still haven't told us the depth, number of starters per position etc) affects the total for your squad. How much does a centre/wing/forward (position split?) / goalie affect the total. This will give you an idea on positional value, and thus may help you decide what type of player is more important, and finally, how the draft may go.

    I would register for a free account with Fantasy Hockey Geek where you input all your settings and it gives you an idea on how valuable players are in your setup. This could help give you perspective, and perhaps guide you to a draft position that may be preferable. Also, perhaps give you an idea on what your leaguemates might do at the draft.

    If I'm off somewhere with the settings clarification, let me know so I don't ramble on any further about incorrect information.

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    Default Re: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    Can you clarify something please? You say it's your first Roto league but when you showed the categories and values, that looks like a weighted points league to me. Is that right? Basically you have one total for your team that accumulates for the entire season? To clarify roto, that is each category is given points based on your ranking vs other managers e.g. first in goals gives you 15 points, second 14...and last 1. Add all these ranking points together and that gives you your total at that stage of the season.
    It is a weighted points league that, like you said, accumulates for the entire season. I thought that was what Roto was, my apologies if I confused anyone. I've only ever done H2H leagues, so point-accumulation is new to me.

    Well, to answer your question, there are no positional requirements for Forwards (no LW, RW, or C). We keep 4 forwards, 4 defence, 2 goalies, and 9 bench/util.

    If I get to pick between 1-7, I am 100% going for an elite forward, (one of the usual guys). If I'm 8-11, I will likely try and get away with a elite forward, but could be tempted at Carey Price. But if I draft 12-15 and Price is still hanging around, I'd probably go for him, right? I don't think I've EVER drafted a goalie as my first pick!

    I just find it interesting, as the gap between picks is much wider and, for me, much harder to anticipate who will be around the following round, especially if I'm drafting at either end of the order. Just trying to piece together how to tackle this draft.

    Would you say drafting for a H2H league would require a different strategy than drafting for a weighted points league? And with so many categories, do you focus your team on a few categories and make them strong or try and be as well rounded as possible?
    FANTASY LEAGUE: "Hockey Night on Hoth" (est. 2012)
    TEAM NAME: "The Barrelriders"

    FORMAT: H2H Keeper League (Keep 4 - no more than two per position)
    TEAM FORMAT: 12 Teams, 17 Players per Team (3C, 4W, 3D, 2G, 5Util)
    STAT CATS: G, A, P, PPP, FW, Shots, Hits, Blocks | Wins, SVS, GAA, SV%

    MY TEAM:

    C | N. Mackinnon,
    W | J. Benn, J. Pavelski
    D |
    G | A. Vasilevskiy

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    Default Re: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    Quote Originally Posted by stotan View Post
    Just trying to piece together how to tackle this draft.
    Would you say drafting for a H2H league would require a different strategy than drafting for a weighted points league? And with so many categories, do you focus your team on a few categories and make them strong or try and be as well rounded as possible?
    The first thing you need to do is figure out player value based on scoring.
    How many points did Ovechkin or Karlsson or Price or any player score with these settings last year?
    You'll probably need a spreadsheet to do this.

    The next part is "the count".

    Let's say you start 9F/5D/2G.
    There's 15 teams.
    That puts a fringe-starter as:
    #135F
    #75D
    #30G

    You have to find out how many "points" (based on league "weights") that players scored last year.

    Let's just say:
    745pts Ovechkin (I have no idea)
    730pts Price
    580pts Karlsson

    And then let's shift to those fringe keepers, say:
    205pts Forward #135
    80pts Goalie #30
    105pts Defense #75

    Then you simply are looking at "relative difference".
    You can also imagine this as an apples-to-apples of FirstRoundPick + LastRoundPick.

    Let's compare F/G vs. G/F
    Ovechkin (745pts) + Late-Round-Goalie (80pts) = 825pts
    Price (730pts) + Late-Round-Forward (135pts) = 865pts

    If this was how the numbers shake out... you can see why Price is the better pick... because there are still decent forwards really late... but NO decent goalies really late.
    That said - every time a Dubnyk or Hammond appears out of nowhere, you realize that there might be some "lucky sniping" of quality goalies that can be had "in year"... but this doesn't ever occur with top end forwards.

    It's a hard decision.
    But it is all about "relative difference".
    If you can get a position for good value late int he draft... it might determine what you can "wait on" at the start of a draft.

    I don't think you can wait on goalies in a 15 team x 2G format.
    If you don't get one... there's little hope you can plug any value in that spot.


    One more item.
    If you really do have NINE (9!!!) bench slots - then you want to get a lot of value in minimizing "same night" conflicts.

    There are two really, really great OFF-NIGHT teams:
    Anaheim
    Chicago

    If you can get either of those goalies, then you could even consider drafting THREE goalies and not "benching" starts.
    (I think it'll be damn near impossible to get 3 solid goalies in this league).

    What's better though is to "up-value" the Anaheim & Chicago skaters and reach for them a bit.
    "BENCH" players are normally going to be the guys you "SIT" on Saturday night when every team in the NHL is playing.

    But if you have a ANA or CHI player... those guys will play on Sunday or Monday or Wednesday a lot.
    So you'll be able to fill your Saturday line-ups full... and then these guys will give you extra starts (if daily league) when typical NHL teams are resting (Sun, Mon, Wed, Fri).


    Lots of points to be had in this league just by pure STRATEGY.
    I have to wonder if your commissioner is a mathematical prodigy... because it's a very complicated set-up.

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    Default Re: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    Great advice by Pengwin. One thing I want to ask (didn't see above - apologies if I missed it): do you have a maximum number of games per positional slot? This could make a difference in how you draft your bench.

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    Default Re: What's your draft position preference/strategy for 1yr leagues & why?

    Pengwin7:

    Great advice re: Anaheim and Chicago. I have used the Same-Day Tool and I definitely will be taking that into consideration! Also, I appreciate the length you went into regarding the mathematics on the player's value. That makes a lot of sense to me. I'm realizing snagging a for-sure #1 elite goalie will be a vital base to begin the draft on (I'm just wondering if others will be thinking the same!!). If others do think the same and some elite forwards drop to later in the round, it might be tempting to snag someone while you can. But I guess this is what you're getting at - analyze things and see whether an elite goalie or an elite forward is the best option out the gate.

    Also yes, the point-system seems to be something they've used for a long time (I'm joining this league as it expands this year). It's complex but I see why the values are the way they are. Little things like:

    1 even-strength goal = 25pts AND +1 = 10pts....therefore 1 even-strength goal means 35points for that player.
    1 powerplay goal = 25pts AND 10pts for the powerplay bonus means 35pts for that player. Makes every goal a player scores equal, which I think is cool.

    The Commish is great and very organized, I'm really excited to try this format out!

    Horrorfan:

    No max games per slot. We also have a max 30 add/drops for the season so you can't be too button-happy either.

    It might be a strategy to try and align a couple duos eh? If you can land Kopitar and Lucic, for example. An even-strength Kopitar goal will add another 10pts for Lucic's +/-, not to mention if he assists on the goal (another 25pts). Could be deadly combinations if you can snag a couple guys who come in bundles!! What do you think??
    FANTASY LEAGUE: "Hockey Night on Hoth" (est. 2012)
    TEAM NAME: "The Barrelriders"

    FORMAT: H2H Keeper League (Keep 4 - no more than two per position)
    TEAM FORMAT: 12 Teams, 17 Players per Team (3C, 4W, 3D, 2G, 5Util)
    STAT CATS: G, A, P, PPP, FW, Shots, Hits, Blocks | Wins, SVS, GAA, SV%

    MY TEAM:

    C | N. Mackinnon,
    W | J. Benn, J. Pavelski
    D |
    G | A. Vasilevskiy

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