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Thread: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

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    Default Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    Victor Hedman or Johnny Boychuk?

    Who would you sign through the 2015-2016 season? (Cap is not a factor here)
    Here's how the points work out in my league:

    G:
    35
    A: 20
    SOG: 5
    Hits: 4
    Blk: 3
    +/-: +2/-2
    PIM: -2
    SHG: 20
    SHA: 10
    GWG: 15

    Obviously Hedman get's a lot more hype here being a 1st rnd, 2nd pick. But after doing the math and comparing the numbers to last season, Boychuk averaged about 41ppg and Hedman 30.3ppg. Boychuk gets more hits, shots, blocks, and LESS PIM which are really going to add up in my league. But he's also turning 32 next season and Hedman is now entering his "prime" at 25. When I ran the numbers based on both of their careers / games played, (Boychuk 393gp / Hedman 392gp) Boychuk is still running ahead with 30.4ppg and Hedman with 26.9ppg. However, if Hedman were to stay healthy and have a season like he did in 2013-2014, he can average around 37ppg. This is just one of those situations where on paper Boychuk is the better choice but there is also lot of potential left in Hedmans tank.

    *Just throwing this out there, but I also could sign Tyler Myers.

    Thanks for your help in advance.

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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    The numbers win.
    We'd all tell you were prefer Hedman as an NHL defenseman... but the numbers don't lie.
    If the Boychuk HIT/BLK/PIM are high-enough value... he's gonna come through on top.
    Both guys have hit their stride - last year's stats from each guy is going to be what they give you (mind you Boychuk probably won't repeat his pure scoring going forward).

    Go with the numbers here... unless Hedman's name-recognition carries a bump in "trade-name value".

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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    What or how does that PIM category (-2) work? And with G and A being most of the weighting here, how would Hed not come out on top here? I'm reading this wrong? lol

    Hedman played only 71% of last seaon (59 games). Taking last season's totals into account and parlaying them into a full 82 game season would give Heds 52 points, 55 pims, 70 hits, 152 blocks and 164 sog. No doubt lower than Boychuk in hits, blocks and pims, but nothing terrible.

    I would go with Hedman personally. I like him more. Younger and yes perhaps, better trade value. Over a full season, I think he closes the gap considerably on some of these cats.

    Boychuk has Leddy and possibly Zidlicky to contend with now....
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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    As Boychuk owner, I would take Hedman here.

    Yes numbers don't lie, but you have to take a look at how those numbers came about. Just points-wise, his first 25pts (35 total) came in the first 38 games of the season (72 games played) with 13 of his 15ppp in that span, meaning he only scored 10 pts and 2 ppp in the second half. His other stats remained constant throught the year.

    I feel if you remove that stretch, Boychuk ends up with something like 25 pts and 8ppp along with his other cats. He is still a great D to own in this format, but Hedman should give you D numbers that a hitting and blocking D can't (Pts, PPP, SOG, ...). I'm pretty sure a blocking and hitting D will be easier to acquire than a guy like Hedman...
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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Call of Doughty View Post
    What or how does that PIM category (-2) work? And with G and A being most of the weighting here, how would Hed not come out on top here? I'm reading this wrong? lol

    Hedman played only 71% of last seaon (59 games). Taking last season's totals into account and parlaying them into a full 82 game season would give Heds 52 points, 55 pims, 70 hits, 152 blocks and 164 sog. No doubt lower than Boychuk in hits, blocks and pims, but nothing terrible.

    I would go with Hedman personally. I like him more. Younger and yes perhaps, better trade value. Over a full season, I think he closes the gap considerably on some of these cats.

    Boychuk has Leddy and possibly Zidlicky to contend with now....
    *It's -2 points for every penalty. This league see's PIM as a negative instead of a positive. (Was very controversial).

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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    Good point @Bass56

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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    HEDMAN

    don't overthink it...Hedman is a stud and could have even more untapped potential. Boychuk is a golden boy now but he is already tapping his ceiling.
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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    Of course everyone's first instinct says Hedman - because he is more valuable in most leagues. That being said - if your league has Boychuk returning more than 33% more points than Hedman on a daily basis, your choice becomes clear. Unless you think Hedman makes a 33% improvement, or Boychuk makes a 25% decline (I personally don't think he will), then you have to go with Boychuk. The risk is way lower if you start with a 10ppg lead and hope to keep it, than if you draft Hedman with a 10ppg deficit and hope some combination of decline in Boychuk and improvement in Hedman make up the gap.

    Depending on your draft format, you may also be able to make another great signing in lieu of Hedman and grab Boychuk later (if you feel your fellow poolies are undervaluing him).

    Just my two cents
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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    Boychuk ran a career year season in a contract year getting PP1 time for a large majority of the season. Leddy, de Haan, Hamonic, and Pulock are all probably better suited to fill that role. I was all over Boychuk last year when he got traded. But I think you're gonna regret taking Boychuk over Hedman.

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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    Quote Originally Posted by mouseburger View Post
    *It's -2 points for every penalty. This league see's PIM as a negative instead of a positive. (Was very controversial).
    I really like that idea. Our league used to have PIMs in it but we opted for Hits instead, as PIMs was the only stat in "real" hockey that is actually a detriment to your team. A guy could get a 10min game misconduct and you'd boost your PIMs, which is greast for fantasy, but not too helpful to his team in real life.

    Back to your question, with how much points are weighted in your league, I'd have to go with Hedman, though I am a big fan of Boychuk. In my league (see signature) one hit is worth the same as a point, so in MY league I'd go Boychuk, personally. The only reason I'd consider going with Hedman is due to his "name value" when it comes to trading. But you could have Hedman's points, decent peripherals AND a trade value much higher than Boychuks. Go Hedman, my friend!
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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    Hedman please, I imagine you could trade him for 3 Boychucks after you finish drafting and even if you couldn't he can still trend upwards and I expect him to.
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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    Hedman for me too. I wouldn't even consider Boychuk over Hedman, even for pure value to trade he is worth more, but I think statwise he is also much more valuable. Boychuk played so far above his career average last year don't let that cloud your judgement. He is likely to lose PP time this year to the developing De Haan, and likely won't put up similar numbers. Expect a bit of a dip back towards his career averages. He will still perform better than previous years simply due to the better opportunity in NY, but won't likely hit the same output as last year to me.
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    Default Re: Hedman vs. Boychuk - Who do I sign for the 2015-2016 season?

    I checked pims to see if theres a big difference in their average over past few seasons and it looks like VH will probably be at least +20/30 more pims than JB

    I'm not sure what net affect that has on the formula when considering all other stats but my gut says Hedman still finishes ahead short term and long term

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