New Dynasty Cap League - Seeking Opinions on 9th Pick Overall & Strategy Beyond

[The Comish]

Sorry for the extra long title. I've committed to a brand spanking new money dynasty roto league, complete with salary cap. 16 teams! 12F, 6D, 2G, 5 Bench and 10 Farm. Categories are G, A, Pts, PPP, SOG, Hits, Blocked Shots, PiM, Wins, Saves, GAA & SV%.

I own the 9th overall pick and without question McDavid and Carey Price will be off the table by the time I pick. Any thoughts as to who I should target (maybe your top 10-12 list) with my first pick and I would like to hear any ideas regarding strategy from the 2nd round on. How much weight do you put in age versus production over say the next 3 years. When do you take guys like Corey Perry, Getzlaf, even Ovechkin? Conventional wisdom says that I should probably take 1 goalie with one of my first two picks, right? Any thoughts would be appreciated!

[Jouko-Pouko]

In my opinion, your first pick defines your strategy. If you go with a very young player like Eichel or MacKinnon, then there's no point in taking any old players with your other high picks. In any other case, you should try to win the league in the 1st year. But if you get someone like Seguin (young but already a star), then you have a longer window of opportunity, so your next pick is very important in defining your strategy.

I wouldn't commit to taking a goalie with top 2 picks. If the best ones are already taken but there are good skaters available, then go with quantity over quality in goaltending. For example, take 3-4 starting goalies and try to win at least wins and saves. It's all about value; take the best player available unless the difference isn't big, then you can go with position.

[The Comish]

In my opinion, your first pick defines your strategy. If you go with a very young player like Eichel or MacKinnon, then there's no point in taking any old players with your other high picks. In any other case, you should try to win the league in the 1st year. But if you get someone like Seguin (young but already a star), then you have a longer window of opportunity, so your next pick is very important in defining your strategy.

I wouldn't commit to taking a goalie with top 2 picks. If the best ones are already taken but there are good skaters available, then go with quantity over quality in goaltending. For example, take 3-4 starting goalies and try to win at least wins and saves. It's all about value; take the best player available unless the difference isn't big, then you can go with position.

I will probably not go the unproven route (Eichel and to a lesser extent MacKinnon), but Seguin is young enough to anchor a dynasty team for many years. I definitely want to win now, but also with an eye to the future, which is why balance will be important throughout the early to mid rounds. I also like BPA for the most part.

I'm really struggling with the goalie strategy - I just realized I forgot to mention this is a 16 team league (I'll update my original post) and we roster 2 goalies. Does that change your goalie strategy?

[Jouko-Pouko]

I'm really struggling with the goalie strategy - I just realized I forgot to mention this is a 16 team league (I'll update my original post) and we roster 2 goalies. Does that change your goalie strategy?

Well, it does make goalies more valuable for sure. Not enough starters for everyone. So you have the 9th pick and then #23, right? I would probably target a goalie with that 2nd round pick then. I wouldn't use the #9 pick on a goalie unless Price was there but you're saying he won't be. If a good goalie is still available with your 3rd round pick, then locking down that position would be a smart move. I would probably go F-G-G-F-D in the first 5 rounds unless someone drops unexpectedly.

I would also target long-term contracts when possible because it seems like salaries are going higher and higher every year. My top-9 for that league would be:
1) McDavid
2) Ovechkin
3) Tavares
4) Crosby
5) Seguin
6) Price
7) Giroux
8) Karlsson
9) Malkin

With Jamie Benn, Tarasenko and Voracek close behind. I wouldn't want Stamkos because I fear his next contract will be way too much.

[Slug]

If Ovechkin is there that's who I'm taking, save cap eslewhere. Goalie in 2nd round makes sense.

[The Comish]

Well, it does make goalies more valuable for sure. Not enough starters for everyone. So you have the 9th pick and then #23, right? I would probably target a goalie with that 2nd round pick then. I wouldn't use the #9 pick on a goalie unless Price was there but you're saying he won't be. If a good goalie is still available with your 3rd round pick, then locking down that position would be a smart move. I would probably go F-G-G-F-D in the first 5 rounds unless someone drops unexpectedly.

I would also target long-term contracts when possible because it seems like salaries are going higher and higher every year. My top-9 for that league would be:
1) McDavid
2) Ovechkin
3) Tavares
4) Crosby
5) Seguin
6) Price
7) Giroux
8) Karlsson
9) Malkin

With Jamie Benn, Tarasenko and Voracek close behind. I wouldn't want Stamkos because I fear his next contract will be way too much.

Yes, #9 and #23. I think taking a goalie with #23 makes sense, but I worry about what's left in round 3. Hard to pass on some pretty talented players for what is likely to be no clear starting goaltenders.

Great call with the long term contracts.

Definitely McDavid and Price won't make it to me - I've already heard some of the guys who own picks in front of me and for sure those two are gone before my pick.

So much to consider! Thanks for your thoughts!

- - - Updated - - -

If Ovechkin is there that's who I'm taking, save cap eslewhere. Goalie in 2nd round makes sense.

Ovechkin very well might be available considering his age. Tough to pass on a guy who is the top performer in this format...but his age...oh the dilemma!

[rainydrinkwater]

We've all been a part of an unexpected goalie run just after we picked and been left with nothing when the draft came back around.

I'd be looking at Ovechkin at 9. If he's there at this point, I feel it may be the easiest pick in the draft. At 23, you get yourself your bonafide starting G. There should still be a half dozen good starting G at this point and starting a new dynasty with Ovie and any bonafide starter is a good start to a new dynasty IMO especially considering draft position.

[mounD]

You're probably looking at Giroux, Malkin, Benn at #9 which are all good options in my opinion. You'd be defining yourself as a win-now team, and those tend to be easier to build during brand new keeper drafts. Guys are always hyped up on the youngsters while you just get to cruise to steay production city on the backs of reliable veterans.

Given your categories, and ROTO format, I would definitely be looking at Jamie Benn here.

[GoNucks]

There is always 1-2 goalies that come out of nowhere to make a fantasy impact, so don't be desperate to draft one early. You can usually find a decent goalie with decent stats in pre-season or early in the season. Just be ready to jump when one comes up.

Look at Bob coming into the league recently, others like Bishop, Hammond, all were relatively mid-season surprise impact goalies to name a few.

[The Comish]

Slow draft is taking place now. Here are the picks:

McDavid
Price
Seguin
Crosby
Rinne
Ja.Benn
Tavares
Stamkos

I agonized over my #9 pick, but ended up taking Ovechkin, even though he's 30 years old. I should still get 2-4 elite years out of him...I hope. I won't go in to who I was deliberating on because some of the guys may be lurkers and if there's a chance I get a decent player with my #23, I don't want to blow it by discussing it here before I make my pick!

[adalyfrey]

I'm absolutely lurking, I saw this thread but didn't connect the dots.

Can we talk about Rinne at 5? Good pick on OV btw.

[The Comish]

I'm absolutely lurking, I saw this thread but didn't connect the dots.

Can we talk about Rinne at 5? Good pick on OV btw.

I actually like Rinne, but the only negative about him is his age. I have about half a dozen goalies ranked higher, but age was a fairly big factor in those rankings.

[Slug]

You did good here, I took Ovi 3rd overall in a new dynasty last year. Pretty much same settings but no cap and he was my cornerstone on my way to a championship.

[RangerFan]

Perfect pick Comish. Like you said, Ovie will give you another at least 3 years of great productivity. He has not slowed down at all. Look for a goalie with your next pick but definitely don't think you have to take one that is not that good. With a 9:4 split in categories, skaters are more important. Obviously you need a couple of decent goalies in a 16 team league but you can overcome a so-so goalie duo with a great offense.

[The Comish]

All my A-list goalies were taken before my 2nd pick. There were 12 goalies taken by the time it was my pick:

*Carey Price
*Pekka Rinne
*Henrik Lundqvist
*Jonathan Quick
*Marc-Andre Fleury
*Braden Holtby
*Devan Dubnyk
*Cory Schneider
*Frederik Andersen
*Sergei Bobrovsky
*Corey Crawford
*Tuukka Rask

I decided that in a 16 team league, I couldn't go until my 3rd round pick without 1 decent goaltender, so I went with Ben Bishop (W,Saves,GAA,SV%). I'm not thrilled. Rask was taken with the pick right in front of mine. Some tears were shed on that one.

I won't mention the players I was considering instead of the Bishop pick, but once/if they go, I'll chime in. You just never know which players will make it back to you, so radio silence for this guy...