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Thread: Extracting Value in Fantasy Hockey: Overview (Part 3)

  1. #1
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    Default Extracting Value in Fantasy Hockey: Overview (Part 3)

    Current Moment Bias (That draft pick was expendable anyways)

    Let me ask you a question. Before the season even starts, how many people in your keeper league think they have a legitimate shot at winning the championship that year? Iíll hazard a guess and say that itís more than the number of teams who will even make the playoffs. People have a hard time planning for the future. Donít believe me? Howís that retirement plan coming along? Itís easy for us as humans to think that we are definitely going to have to plan for the futureÖ soon...ish. Itís no different in fantasy hockey. Yes, you probably have a decent team this year. No, you probably arenít going to win it all this year. Itís a simple game of odds, and they arenít ďever in your favourĒ.

    Itís never too early to start planning for the future, and if you think you donít have a shot at taking home the trophy, why not sell one of your players who is currently overvalued? Extract value from selling high and put yourself in a better position to win it all next year. Maybe you can even take a flyer on some underperforming players that are owned by another team whoís affected by current moment bias. Let them try to win it all this year, and when the hot and cold streaks have snapped, you will have extracted some value and will be right in the thick of things next year. Iím not saying you should tank your team at all, but you should absolutely try to take advantage of other people who think that this is finally their year to earn some bragging rights. You can probably even slyly encourage them to fall into this bias. That would be mean though. You should be kind. Probably.

    Anchoring Bias (Iíll give you Horton for OvechkinÖ no? Fine, Bergeron for Ovechkin)

    If you ever decide to read a book or article about negotiation, it wonít take you long before you come across the words ďstart highĒ. The reason for this is because of anchoring bias. For some reason, our brains tend to put an unrealistic amount of weighting on the first offer we receive in a negotiation. We tend to ďanchorĒ our opinions of every subsequent offer we receive to the first offer. Consequently, when you start high in negotiations, every offer you put forward after that will seem more favourable. This is a classic exploitation of anchoring bias.

    There are two important concepts to take away from this. First, it is definitely in your best interest to ask for more than you think you can get in a negotiation. Your trading partner will never say ďhold on pal, I donít think I am offering you enough for your player. Here, allow me to give you a little bit more, and I wonít take no for an answer!Ē Of course, perhaps there are people who say that, but I would venture a guess to say that they arenít playing fantasy sports for the thrill of competition. Ask for more; see what they come back with. Negotiate!

    Second, make sure you have identified (to yourself) exactly what you are looking to receive in a negotiation before your trading partner makes their first offer. You need to set up your own ďanchorĒ to weigh against the trade offers so that you can evaluate the trade based on your own expectations and not on your opponentís. Failure to do this might result in you giving up more in the negotiations than you were originally hoping to. Do your homework and set your own valuations.

    Cognitive biases are a fact of life. You cannot avoid them, but you can definitely use them to your advantage. By identifying when you might be personally susceptible to cognitive bias, you can help yourself avoid the pitfalls of poor decision-making. At the same time, because of the mere fact that you are aware of these shortcuts your brain tries to make when valuing players, you might be able to discover when your trading partner is falling victim to one or more of these pitfalls themselves. There is much value to be extracted from cognitive biases if you know where to look for it.

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  2. #2
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    Default Re: Extracting Value in Fantasy Hockey: Overview (Part 3)

    These are great, I might be able to use them on the main site towards September
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site

    15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.

    F - Crosby, Atkinson, Tarasenko, Scheifele, Bjorksrand, Ehlers, Arvidsson, Guentzel, Beauvillier, Hinostroza, Norris, Mikheyev, Kubalik, Vrana, Fiala, Perfetti, Berggren, Pelletier, Heinen
    G - Bobrovsky, Lehner, Talbot, Delia, Kahkonen
    D - Jones, Hronek, Pulock, Muzzin, Morrissey, Lundkvist, Matheson, Rafferty

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Extracting Value in Fantasy Hockey: Overview (Part 3)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    These are great, I might be able to use them on the main site towards September
    All three so far have really been very thought provoking and illuminating reads. Kudos to bluecollar.

  4. #4
    Central Ontario
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    Default Re: Extracting Value in Fantasy Hockey: Overview (Part 3)

    Awesome stuff BC.

    Was intrigued by your first post and am now thoroughly enjoying each one that follows.

    Thanks for taking the time to share such quality writing and ideas!
    Rocky Horror Roto Show, Yahoo, 13-team, Roto
    Taro Tsujimoto Draft League, 6-team, pts-only (*2018 draftees or later only)
    Hanson Bros., ESPN, 10-Team, Keep 8, weighted scoring
    Black & Blue, Fantrax, 12-Team, Dynasty, H2H weighted
    The Dream Team League, Fantrax, 14-Team, Dynasty, H2H cats
    On Frozen Ponds, Fantrax 10-Team, Dynasty, Roto

    ​"Look in the sky to find the moon. Not in the pond." - Persian Proverb

  5. #5
    BranDOOM's Avatar
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    Apr 2014
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    Default Re: Extracting Value in Fantasy Hockey: Overview (Part 3)

    Well done - great read. Enjoyed the piece onanchoring.
    Keeper Team: $300 Auction draft, 10 F, 5 D, 3 G, 5 Bench
    Keep For Following Year: 3 F, 2 D, 1 G

    12 Team, Rotisserie G A PTS +/- PIMS PPG PPA SHP GWG W GAA SV% SO

    F: Draisaitl, Marner, Eichel, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Tavares, Kuznetzov, Wilson, Connor, Buchnevich, R.Smith, Bennett, M.Foligno, Forsberg
    Josi, Letang, Doughty, Slavin, Johnson
    Hellebuyck, Samsonov, Kuemper, Sorokin

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