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Thread: The Old Man Myth in Fantasy Hockey Keeper Leagues

  1. #16
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    Default Re: The Old Man Myth in Fantasy Hockey Keeper Leagues

    Certainly some interesting opinions and thoughts.

    Thanks for the feedback!


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  2. #17
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    Default Re: The Old Man Myth in Fantasy Hockey Keeper Leagues

    Great article Axe and some really tremendous replies. I've rep'd who I could but many of you I apparently rep too often lol.

    I think a few posters nailed some of the potential reasonings that help explain Axe's research. SeaDawg mentioned how we (in general) are a bit like gamblers and I think that's apropos. Whether it's the stock market, real estate, etc., we all love to be the one to "buy low" and "sell high". Don't often hear to many people bragging about how they made minimal but positive returns on their safe investment... despite this often being a much more sound strategy.

    There's just something so fulfilling to our egos to be able to say "I predicted Johnny Hockey would be an instant star despite the fears over his size" as opposed to "I just knew Andrew Ladd would hit 55-60 points again!" lol.

    Agree with Fung too that due to this reality, young players often do hold greater trade value. But as he mentioned, that too can be a gamble.

    And at the bottom of it all, I think nearly every GM is absolutely terrified of looking like an idiot by holding on to an older player whose value craters. Take it from someone who had Alexander Semin on his team this year haha.

    If a young guy falters, we assuage ourselves by saying "he'll bounce back" or "just wasn't the right situation for him"... but if an old guy declines, it's as though the entire blame falls on our weak managerial shoulders. ("You should have known he was done").

    That's the one area I'd really love to improve as a fantasy GM... being as comfortable with accepting the decline of an older guy I thought had another good year in him as I am with accepting one of the myriad of prospects I hype not panning out (which are plentiful haha).

    Thanks for writing Axe and thanks guys for the fantastic conversation!
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  3. #18
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    Default Re: The Old Man Myth in Fantasy Hockey Keeper Leagues

    Axe, you can write one heck of a great article. The study by UBC business school was really informative. Great stuff.

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  4. #19
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    Default Re: The Old Man Myth in Fantasy Hockey Keeper Leagues

    Chris.

    Good article. I like all points made.

    I will say this and it may be off the rails a bit but as for me and how I like to value my team(s) and player(s) is this.

    1) History of player. If I have a player(s) that has shown solid past history with durability I don't care how old he is, I will own him for as long as he's giving me the value deserving whether he's 21 or 37.

    2) If I have player(s) that has shown over a 2 or 3 year stint to be injury prone etc then I am certainly moving him. It's worth it to me to not have the headache of wondering when he will get hurt again and miss a month of games. Letang comes to mind here, I moved him and did not care to do so. I got value back but the real value to me was just not having the headache. Players like this no matter their age whether 21 or 37.

    3) I think it's important to asssess the other teams within your division. Take a look at their rosters and see how you stack up against them. Are teams turning towards youth or do teams in the division have a steady diet of veteran players. In other words If I see teams starting to have a youth movement but also starting to improve W/L record and I see my team as declining a bit, I will make some moves regardless of age to combat some of the other teams progress to ensure I can remain at the top or near the top of my division.

    4) Am I playing for money or playing in free leagues? I think this is huge. Free leagues owners will most likely go young alot more than they would in money leagues. With young / older players in money leagues it's less likey to always have teams rebuilding and in my opinion you get more of a league-wide balance due to the money factor.

    5) Be open-minded. Sometimes you enter trade talks with a plan of action only to go down a road that you did not expect to go down and sometimes a deal comes along where you end up acquiring an " older" player giving up less value than you'd thought you'd have to thus you add " age" to your team in doing so.

    6) Owners get over-the-top way to excited about prospects. Everyone wants to be that guy that builds a championship team and put their " mark" on the team and thus they enter a league, strip down a team and start all over. Usually this ends up in a tragic tale of owner making crazy moves and then quitting 1-2 years later.

    7) I go by the rule that only 20% of prospects become fantasy studs, the other 80% I wil let the other league members drool over while I try and acquire proven assets whether they are a bit older or much older.

    8) If you aren't planning for a serious championship run within 2-3 years then you are missing the boat. No build should last longer than 3 years of being a competitive team in any league formt.

    Age vs Youth. So many variables comes into play, so many different roads to take on your way to trying to win a championship.

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