Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 07 2015

[Dobber]

in the UHL league i will have a pick in the 4-5 range and i believe in the 11-13 range.

my competitors will read this but it's pretty obvious who i take with 4th. and i'm not too concerned with my later pick either since there are a lot of players in this years draft that can be selected in that range.

i've retooled this year to help me compete in the near future, so immediate production isn't that necessary.

skater cats are: G, A, PPP, SHP, GWG, PIM, +/, SOG, Hits, Blks, FOW

Centers are valued a bit higher since they produce in FOW. D are generally the least valuable, in most cases if they make more than 2-3M they aren't worth their contract. C > W> D, but upside is what i am most interested in.

Who would you target with the 11-13th pick?

and with my 4th overall (barring a lottery miracle, could drop as low as 5th overall) who would you take? i already know who i will pick if i get 4th, but 5th is a little tricky.

obviously the real nhl draft will affect who i draft but any input is appreciated

Sorry, I can't answer this with any intelligence - I need the next month with the Prospects Report and read through the various analysis I get. I remember last year doing a mailbag and saying the same thing. Every year in early April I'm too raw with the draftees, and then by mid-May I'm practically an expert! Maybe Rossy will jump in and read your question. I'm like you - once I get outside the Top 4 I'm a little lost

[Dobber]

Hey Dobber - Thanks again for doing this.

We're adding two expansion teams this year, and I can only protect 10 players. My list as it stands now is:

Backstrom (WSH)
Benn
Galchenyuk
Kessel
MacKinnon
Schneider
Shattenkirk
Tarasenko
Toews
Yandle

Would you change any of these?

Also what in the bloody hell is wrong with Kessel??? - He's killing me here!

Looks like you changed your mind about Lundqvist and Schnieder. I would protect both goalies and let Galchenyuk go. The expansion teams will take Galchenyuk and Huberdeau (if they're smart), so just run your team as if they're gone.

Kessel is under orders to tank, I wouldn't worry about him for next year I think he'll be fine

[Dobber]

Hi Dobber,

Thanks for taking the time to help us see the light!

Quick question, what do you see Jiri Hudler do next year. I'm pretty certain we will not see another 70 pts + campaign, but is exepecting around 65 pts reasonnable ? I'm thinking of keeping him on my 15 keeper roster.

Thank you!

65 is reasonable, he should decline though. For sure keep him over JVR or Huberdeau. In fact, keep him and Bobrovsky over JVR and Huberdeau

[Kwazzie]

Hey Dobber good timing we're in the final playoff week in my league, then we have a week or two trading window before keeper cuts. I'm quite torn I think I have the issue of embarassment of riches. I won the regular season and I'm currently in the finals. my core keepers are solid and young I think i can compete the next 3 seasons for sure. hoping though to deal some of the fringe keepers for upgraded picks next year, a mcdavid/eichel offer or just upgrade a keeper. i did manage to do so last year effectively so i'm hoping to pull at least one solid deal off.

we keep any 12 players plus our farm (under 100GP Reg season for skaters, and 50GP for goalies)
Start 3C 3LW 3RW 5D 1Util 2G 7 Bench spots.
Fantrax is the provider.

Cats are Skt: G A +/- PIM SOG Hits Blks FOW PPP SHP GWG
Goalies: W L SV SV% GAA SHO
weekly starts

Current Roster, and ill bold the keepers I have in mind and who I'm seeing as toss ups/on the bubble.

C- Tavares / Kopitar / Monahan / Barkov / Ribeiro
LW-Couture / Lucic / Huberdeau / Girgensons(also C eligible)
RW- OV / Kessel / Tarasenko / Kucherov / Pastrnak
D- Faulk / Carlson / Brodie / Rielly / Wideman / Bogosian
G- Lundqvist / Lehtonen / Bernier / Hammond

Last spot is a toss up between lehtonen(he was so bad this year bernier was better on a worse team imo). Bernier, Faulk, Rielly, Brodie, Pastrnak, Wideman Barkov, Huberdeau. i never kept a dman last year, and i ww all of them i have above except Rielly (promoted, and carlson draft). i feel like Barkov has the most upside in my setting and he gives 4 legit first line C keepers. even if i had to wait a year or two on him.

Prospects: Drouin, Nylander, Vasilevsky, Buchnevich, Barabashev, Dal Colle, Virtanen, Goldobin, Milano, Demko (i replenished the farm last year and we expanded it by 5 slots so only drouin and maybe vasilevsky will need to be promoted next season.

[plug]

Is this a question? LOL

I like Connolly over Spooner, but case could be made for either. And Pastrnak probably first, yes

Thanks dobber. Yea, not much of a question. . I did make a statement, but ya followed me

[Oakville Squires]

I would keep Gardiner and Ennis over those goalies (keep Schultz) and then work on trades to get a goaltender. You won't win without a goalie, and those three you have right now may not combine for 25 wins next year. All three have to go, and you have to get another one (or two...or three)

Thanks for the advice Dobber. One of the GM's in my league has to move one of Dubnyk or Varlamov so I will try to target one of them before our keeper deadline.

[Dobber]

Thanks for answering to our questions Dobber!

For team and league in sig. Dillemma: I have to make room for Kuznetsov who won't be farm eligible in our league any more after this season (more than 80 NHL games played).

Here's the question: it's a full keeper - who do I drop for Kuz? It's a contending team and I'm not too much into potential, but I can't drop Kuznetsov, can I?

It probably comes down to
-J.Staal (good peripherals though, centres are a commodity in our league - but what's his outlook?)
-Downie (won me the PIMs most weeks, but will he be more disciplined as he was told to be?)
-Myers or Hamonic (both solid multi cat wise and I like their situations).
-Or is Sharp already washed up and should be my choice?

Thanks a lot!

If it's me, I drop Staal. Good peripherals yes, but he gets hurt a lot and is on a weak team, and his type is probably easily draftable. You can't drop Kuznetsov

[Dobber]

Yes, the problem is an embarassment of riches... Here's my team at the moment. I can only keep 13 with 3 of those spots reserved for players having less than 150 games played (so called "rookies"). In bold are my best guesses at my keepers.

Am I going at this wrong? Any suggestions for my keeper list?


F: Seguin, Benn, Tavares, Kucherov(R), Scheifele, Simmonds, Ovie, Granlund, Wheeler, Oshie, Nyquist, Kreider, Gaudreau(R), Stone(R)
D: OEL, Klingberg(R), Barrie, McDonagh, Trouba(R)
G: Crawford, Quick, Luongo


Thanks again!

Well, you can always keep a rookie as a keeper and not as a rookie, right? So then you have to take Gaudreau over Nyquist. Otherwise, looks good.

[Dobber]

More likely to happen next season - RNH gets 70 points or Wideman falls below 40? I know it seems like a random question, but it relates to retentions in my limited keeper.

I smell a cage match!

RNH is more likely to top 70

[Dobber]

Hi Dobber, thx for doing this!

For my team in signature we have a double expansion coming up meaning I will lose 2 players. We can protect 10 players, would you change my list at all?

Ryan, Byfuglien, Backes, Monahan, Bjugstad, Kucherov, Johanson, Boedker, Spezza, JvR.
Rattie and Draisaitl are on my junior squad and are exempt from the draft.

Is this the same double expansion as the other person above?


Unprotect Boedker
Protect Allen. You don't want to lose him just when he's taking over. Especially since the new teams will probably not bother taking Miller or Elliott.

[VincentVega]

For this week I would rather have Wideman (http://hockey.dobbersports.com/froze...15%3AR&sent=go) three games left over Green (http://hockey.dobbersports.com/froze...15%3AR&sent=go) with two games left. Both players have five points in their last five games. Wideman has a few more Hits

Thanks. But by "going forward" I meant next year and beyond. I should have been more specific. Anyway, I ended up with Wideman. Green could be interesting depending on where he signs but I fear some team will overpay and mine is a salary cap league.

[Mater]

Hi Dobber,
Thanks for doing this, I am competing for first place and a big part of that is the knowledge I have gained from the Forum, Ramblings and the Guide. Keep up the great work.

Struggling to pick my 16 keepers, in the signature. I have bolded my initial thoughts but haven't decided on the full 16.

Of the non-keepers is there anyone I should try to sell?
Cheers

[Dobber]

Hey Dobber! Thanks for answering questions! It's sweet.

So I just won my league, which is awesome...but in gunning for the win I loaded up on some players and now I need to make some tough decisions for my keepers. We get to keep 10 roster players, and 12 minor players. Minor players are players who have played under 110 games (which is awesome for me with Forsberg).

So my roster is in my signature and the categories for the league are also there.

Right now I'm definitely keeping

1) Ovechkin
2) Byfuglien
3) Lundqvist
4) Varlamov
5) Tarasenko
6) Weber
7) Giroux

Now that leaves me a choice of Kreider, Bjugstad, Palat, Trouba, Marchand, Callahan, OEL, Kopitar for the final 3 keeper spots.

I'm a little worried about Kopitar's season but I'd have a real hard time just letting him go. OEL is also a hard guy to let go. Defense are pretty valuable in our league with 6 spots to play them daily and blocks/hits being worth a decent amount. So I'm thinking I have three options.

Option 1: Keep Kopitar, OEL and choose between Kreider/Palat/Bjugstad for the 10th keeper spot

Option 2: See if I can sell Kopitar and keep OEL, Bjugstad and one of Kreider/Palat for the 10th spot

Option 3: Keep Kreider, Palat and Bjugstad, skew my keepers a little younger and sell Kopitar/OEL (OEL might be at his highest value for a while with the 23 goal season and Yandle gone and people assuming he can take his spot on the PP)

Part of me is leaning towards option 2. What do you think?

Thankfully I can put Forsberg in my minors which look like the following:

Forsberg, Hayes, Lowry, Jaskin, Rieder, Nick Ritchie (could be gold in my league format), Hellebuyck, Matt Murray, Joni Ortio, Ghost, Honka, Connougton

Your idea is the best one. Trade Kopitar for some big picks/prospects. But keep Palat over Bjugstad IMO. So keep OEL, Kreider and Palat

[Dobber]

If you answer this question before tonight's games begin (as it could become clearer after them):

Assuming Minnesota and Vancouver are in, who misses the playoffs in the West? Calgary, LA or Winnipeg?

Remaining games:

CGY: vs Arizona, vs LA, at Winnipeg
LA: at Edmonton, at Calgary, vs San Jose
WPG: at St. Louis, at Colorado, vs Calgary

I want Winnipeg to get in the most. So that means they're toast. Sorry Jets fans - I'm cursed that way

[JagrBomb]

Sorry, I can't answer this with any intelligence - I need the next month with the Prospects Report and read through the various analysis I get. I remember last year doing a mailbag and saying the same thing. Every year in early April I'm too raw with the draftees, and then by mid-May I'm practically an expert! Maybe Rossy will jump in and read your question. I'm like you - once I get outside the Top 4 I'm a little lost

haha yea i don't really read up on guys outside the big ones until we get nearer to the draft. i'll bring this up again in a month or so, thanks anyways.