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Thread: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

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    Default Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    For fantasy owners out there, it has been a bitter pill to swallow, especially those in salary cap leagues. His salary is eighth highest for forwards in the league and to watch him put up goose eggs night after night is disheartening. I know in many keeper fantasy leagues, owners are bailing on Kessel left, right and center. These are the types of owners I love playing fantasy hockey with. The impatient, “what have you done for me lately” GM’s who are short sighted. My friends, if you are a Kessel owner, do not be one of those short sighted owners, looking to trade him at the worst possible time.

    Kessel is an annual 30 + goal scorer, and even with him having what appears to be a desperate time scoring this year, he’s still managed to put up 23 goals to this point. Thirty goals is not that far out of reach for him. Surprisingly, he isn’t even having a career worst year for his shooting percentage. That came in 2010-11 when he shot just under 10%. Even that year he managed to score 32 goals in 82 games. Don’t get me wrong, he’s close to his career low right now, shooting a hair over 10% but he’s not really that far under his career average of 11.1%. He currently has 8 power play goals, which equals his total from last year and his career high is 12. He’s sitting with 14 power play assists; one lower than his career best of 15 from two years ago.

    Another thing to look at when it comes to players and their fantasy numbers is the advanced stats that are out there right now. To me, one of the more telling advanced stats is the SPSv% – (formerly known as PDO) – This is 5-on-5 shooting percentage added to the 5-on-5 save percentage. It’s been referred to by many as “puck luck” mainly because both numbers are driven, to some extent, by luck. If you have a high shooting percentage and your goalie has a high save percentage you will have a high SPSv% and more than likely, due for a regression. On the other side, if you have a SPSv% less than 1000, you are due for a rebound. The guys closest to 1000 are the guys who seem to be doing things right and so are their goalies. Kessel is not having a very good year for “puck luck” as his SPSv% is sitting this year at 987. He’s due for a rebound and so are his fantasy numbers.

    The long and short of it, even though it appears he’s having a terrible year, he’s really not that far off most of his career numbers. I think a lot of the negativity around the Toronto Maple Leafs is wearing on Kessel because he’s their main asset. This is not a time to be selling Phil Kessel.

    For fantasy owners who do not own Kessel, if there was ever a time for you to reach out to the Kessel owners, it would be now. This is prime buying time on Phil Kessel.

    There’s a very good chance that Kessel will get dealt out of Toronto this summer, probably at the draft. Teams are more willing to acquire big contracts around that time as they usually know what the cap will be and also know what their needs are heading into the upcoming season. Whatever team acquires Kessel is looking for a big return on their investment, and don’t think he won’t be looking to give it to them. Kessel has to be feeling the weight of a terrible Toronto team and it has to be affecting his game somewhat. Once this trade happens, the chances of acquiring Kessel on the cheap will pretty much disappear.

    Fantasy owners need to be proactive, not reactive when it comes to roster management. Knowing the market and your other GMs is key to taking advantage of opportunities. Player values rise and decline, much like a stock market. A proven commodity like Phil Kessel is one player you want to buy low on when the opportunity arises and that time is now.

    On the other side of the coin, if you are a Kessel owner, there could never be a worse time to sell him. I realize it’s tough right now, but better days are ahead. A little patience will go a long way for you and your fantasy team if you hold tight on Kessel and wait for the stocks to bounce back.
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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Watching games you can tell that January to February stretch he wasn’t himself. He was on a breakaway and went low stick. He has never done that. His shot was off a bit and they did a breakdown in December of his shot on CBC or TSN. It was like he went from set up for a pass to shooting in 0.01s or something insane. Then they did it in February and it was up to like 0.1s or something. He was over thinking and not just shooting.

    Most goal scorers are said they don’t really aim; they just have an instinct to shoot to an open spot. This helps on a quick release (like Kessel) and keeps the goalie a step behind. But Kessel kept missing, or not getting enough on the shot, so he started to think and started to “aim”. This slowed his release down and allowed the goalie to keep him.

    Fantasy wise, he’s still a 2nd round (in a 12 team league) pick, but I can see him dropping to a 3rd round pick next yr which would be steal. If I was an owner, I wouldn’t be selling. You should all wait till December then sell if you don’t want him. He is always a 1.1PPG until December with the Leafs.
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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    He was PPG until they changed the coach and management told everyone to mail it in for the year.
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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    The worst part is that after 35 games or so, he was on pace for a career high. He quite literally hit a wall
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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    He quite literally hit a wall
    He "literally" hit a wall, Dobber? Really?

    Yeah, I'm being that guy.

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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Josh Harding literally hit a wall. I see some good buy-low opportunities with Kessel though provided it's not a league that uses player salaries. It's not just about production, but also about perception and popularity. People tend to let emotions guide their decisions which could put Kessel's value much lower than it should be even with this massive slump that he's had. He will slide lower than he should in one-year drafts and will be available at a bargain price in keeper leagues.


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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Kessel will end up in Flordia this summer and will score 37g/40a/77p next season. I still dig him long-term. He needs to leave Toronto like the city has been set ablaze.
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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    So we should value him as a 75+ forward but trade for him as a 65+ point forward?
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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Axeman

    Kessel for McDavid? Keeper obviously

    BTW, I agree with your post 100%

    I have Kessel and will not move him until he IS traded. (my guess is NSH or NYI)

    This season is just a blip/anomaly

    BBBUUUUUTTTTT......

    for McDavid?
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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Baby View Post
    Axeman

    Kessel for McDavid? Keeper obviously

    BTW, I agree with your post 100%

    I have Kessel and will not move him until he IS traded. (my guess is NSH or NYI)

    This season is just a blip/anomaly

    BBBUUUUUTTTTT......

    for McDavid?
    Ugh. If it's for McDavid, one for one, I'd have a hard time turning it down, but I am always skeptical when it comes to trading away a proven asset for a kid who has yet to step on the NHL ice.
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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Quote Originally Posted by potatoetree View Post
    So we should value him as a 75+ forward but trade for him as a 65+ point forward?
    I'd value him in the 75-80 range, honestly.

    P.S., Yes I would deal him for McDavid for sure.
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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Good article, I for one picked up Kessel a while back in one of my 20 team keeper leagues and IMO it was for a bargain price, considering I expect a return to 70+ points next season with his offensive skills. Whether it be on the revamped Toronto(which I believe will happen this off-season; this team has obviously ran out of gas and needs a change of scenery) or on a team like Florida who has interest in the American sniper. In Florida I can see him having a great season being away for he media hub that is Toronto and possibly eclipsing the 40 goal mark.
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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Good read Axeman!

    I'll maybe take a stab at him when our season ends (trade window is closed until then.)

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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Interesting read Ax. Thanks.

    I hear Florida mentioned and then NYI and Nashville.

    I'm interested in who people (us fantasy arm chair GM's) feel may be coming back in these cases.

    Tallon has already said he wasn't prepared to part with one of his current young studs (seems Huberdeau would be the MOST available as Bjug and Bark have essentially made themselves untouchable).
    Who would NYI move in order to acquire Kessel (that would be worth it for the Leafs?)
    And Nashville? I just don't see a fit there... but open to suggestions...

    Always fun to speculate.

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    Default Re: Kessel's questionable fantasy season

    Thanks guys. I wrote this a couple weeks ago, but it still holds water today.
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