Ekman-Larsson

[audiopile]

Thanks. I keep bringing this up not to toot my own horn, but because I myself was shocked to see what I saw and I want folks to know about this because it's such an extreme case of perceived value being much greater than actual value.

One last thing then. Is your opinion that OEL owners should take advantage of that perceived value now? If you are using Suter as a comparison OEL is and will be a great own. He won't ever be Karlsson but I don't think people are really expecting that are they? I'm confused.

[RizzeeDizzee]

One last thing then. Is your opinion that OEL owners should take advantage of that perceived value now? If you are using Suter as a comparison OEL is and will be a great own. He won't ever be Karlsson but I don't think people are really expecting that are they? I'm confused.

I think people see OEL as likely to get 50 points or more as early as next season, and as him having a 60 point upside. My recollection is that folks had similar expectations about Suter when he was in his mid 20s, but of course he's not come close to meeting those expectations. Given that, I'd say that yes - it would make sense to seize upon the OEL hype to trade him if the deal is right. Selling high is always harder than buying low, yet it's often the right thing to do. A good analogy is sports cards. When people see the value of their cards rise they think the price will keep rising, yet it rarely does. Or they hold onto cards of guys with untapped potential hoping to be there when the spike in value comes, yet more often than not it doesn't.

Suter is a decent fantasy defensemen and it certainly is true that OEL has more multi-cat value than Suter even now. But I make the comparison to illustrate expectations that fell short and realistic points ceilings as opposed to contending they're truly fantasy clones.

[havanablast21]

I think people see OEL as likely to get 50 points or more as early as next season, and as him having a 60 point upside. My recollection is that folks had similar expectations about Suter when he was in his mid 20s, but of course he's not come close to meeting those expectations. Given that, I'd say that yes - it would make sense to seize upon the OEL hype to trade him if the deal is right. Selling high is always harder than buying low, yet it's often the right thing to do. A good analogy is sports cards. When people see the value of their cards rise they think the price will keep rising, yet it rarely does. Or they hold onto cards of guys with untapped potential hoping to be there when the spike in value comes, yet more often than not it doesn't.

Suter is a decent fantasy defensemen and it certainly is true that OEL has more multi-cat value than Suter even now. But I make the comparison to illustrate expectations that fell short and realistic points ceilings as opposed to contending they're truly fantasy clones.

Ok Rizzee...

If you owned OEL and could move him for Josi...would you? Straight up? What if the OGM was also looking for a model ate plus including OEL?

And specifically if you had to choose 2 of OEL , Rielly, Josi and Strallman in a Keeper with my cats , how I you rank those 4?

Thanks.

[2014olympicgold]

After the Leafs played Arizona and I saw the PP of Yandle and OEL go to work I traded for OEL. Those two together was unbelievable actually. They criss-crossed with great timing, they executed great one touch passes and had unbelievable vision. The second those two didn’t have the puck, the PP died. There was no movement, and it was easy for guys to check the forwards off the puck. But just seeing the d work over the whole PK unit was very cool to see.

OEL to me I think will be solid only if the forwards develop correctly, and Gormley/Stone develop into a solid mobile defense that has solid vision. A Yandle 2.0 if you would. Hopefully OEL doesn’t get transitioned into the shutdown role (Pietrangelo) and lose a lot of his production. If that PP can run with Vermette and Doan on the top line, I’d like to see what it would do with some actual offensive talent. I’d give it one more yr to see if OEL can put up normal D numbers (10-20G/35-45A) kinda thing.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Ok Rizzee...

If you owned OEL and could move him for Josi...would you? Straight up? What if the OGM was also looking for a model ate plus including OEL?

And specifically if you had to choose 2 of OEL , Rielly, Josi and Strallman in a Keeper with my cats , how I you rank those 4?

Thanks.

I'd not only take Josi for OEL, I'd be willing to pay more to get Josi in most leagues. Do you realize that at one recent point Josi had scored 70 points in his last 100 regular season games stretching between this season and last?! And the PPP and PIM are close to being a wash, with both being in the top 3 overall for d-men in GWG, which is a fluky category no matter how you shape it.

Would I keep OEL over Reilly and Stralman in your league? Of course, but what does that mean? I never said OEL had no actual value or had to be valued less than others - only that his perceived value is very inflated.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I’d give it one more yr to see if OEL can put up normal D numbers (10-20G/35-45A) kinda thing.

So your definition of "normal D numbers" are ones that would range from 45 to 65 points? Mkay.....

And if you look at what you say about OEL, it's more of the same "I think" and "if" and "signs point to" kind of stuff. The reality is he's too valuable in "real hockey" to be likely to get anything but the tough minutes he's receiving - just like Suter.

[2014olympicgold]

So your definition of "normal D numbers" are ones that would range from 45 to 65 points? Mkay.....

And if you look at what you say about OEL, it's more of the same "I think" and "if" and "signs point to" kind of stuff. The reality is he's too valuable in "real hockey" to be likely to get anything but the tough minutes he's receiving - just like Suter.

Normal D Ratio I should have said. None of this 20G/20A he’s on track for.

[Reuben]

Another thread where I make my usual OEL public service announcement: http://hockey.dobbersports.com/Cage-...-vs-ryan-suter

And just to clarify again, this is not something I do to raise my profile or to slam OEL. I just feel that people think he walks on water when in truth he's poised to be Ryan Suter 2.0, which is fine in reality but likely would be seen as a disappointment in view of very lofty expectations.

Did you compare Suters CHUNK rate to OEL's anywhere in this piece?

[Nikerato]

I think the difference in understanding here is that while OEL's perceived value might be too high right now, it also seems that you're implying his actual value will never increase from where it is now. With his talent and current situation, I'm not sure how you can make this claim.

See my response I just posted. And your statements above are just not correct. I parsed the data for all teams - good, bad, great, and all in between - and NO ONE was able to be productive in the situation OEL is in. The numbers don't lie. Potential and skill are great, but only can go so far. Look at how Ovi floundered for nearly two seasons when he was not able to play in a system where he could exploit his talents.

I simply cannot get over how many people are drinking the OEL kool-aid. Talk to guys who owned Suter 5 years ago and ask them how optimistic they were and how they wish they'd embraced reality instead.

This is what I'm interested in, and it would be great if you could elaborate. What exactly is the method you used to extrapolate the conclusion you used in this sentence? There are two problems I see with this statement.

1) I don't know what kind of data you're referencing, because it doesn't seem to exist.
Are you saying that there's publicly available data that describes how Karlsson, Subban, Weber, etc. would play in Arizona, and that it would be no different than what OEL is doing right now? Conversely, is there data that says OEL can't produce more playing in Ottawa, Montreal, Nashville (if he were to be substituted with said defenders)?

I'm unaware of any such data; even if those numbers somehow existed, I'm not sure what kind of statistical model exists that could possibly allow one to make those kind of assertions. The only way to reliably (sort of) say so would be if all those players played a season on each others' teams.

2) The situation that OEL is in is not static. It's fluid.
Why would a different team not matter, given the same usage? PPs don't become more or less effective? Even strength TOI can't represent more or less production? Better teams can't control possession and consistently force offensive zone starts? Linemates don't matter?!

My point is that I understand that OEL's perceived value is too high right now given his usage and his production with that usage; but it's also that OEL has the elite talent to potentially take advantage of a better team, even with the same usage. Those other team factors matter, and there is no data in the world that can predict that OEL will never increase his production given a different situation.

Thus, the reason why there's optimism when it comes to OEL is because 1) he's talented, and 2) Arizona looks like it's going to get better as a whole soon. Couple years type of soon.

[havanablast21]

I'd not only take Josi for OEL, I'd be willing to pay more to get Josi in most leagues. Do you realize that at one recent point Josi had scored 70 points in his last 100 regular season games stretching between this season and last?! And the PPP and PIM are close to being a wash, with both being in the top 3 overall for d-men in GWG, which is a fluky category no matter how you shape it.

Would I keep OEL over Reilly and Stralman in your league? Of course, but what does that mean? I never said OEL had no actual value or had to be valued less than others - only that his perceived value is very inflated.

Sorry Rizzee...you were misunderstanding my question. It truly WAS a question and not me trying to make you prove a point. lol

I'm faced with these exact scenario's and was interested your broader take. That's all fella. Have enjoyed your input here as well as the Cage match. I get what you're saying regarding Actual vs Perceived.

Thanks for the feedback.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I think the difference in understanding here is that while OEL's perceived value might be too high right now, it also seems that you're implying his actual value will never increase from where it is now. With his talent and current situation, I'm not sure how you can make this claim.



This is what I'm interested in, and it would be great if you could elaborate. What exactly is the method you used to extrapolate the conclusion you used in this sentence? There are two problems I see with this statement.

1) I don't know what kind of data you're referencing, because it doesn't seem to exist.
Are you saying that there's publicly available data that describes how Karlsson, Subban, Weber, etc. would play in Arizona, and that it would be no different than what OEL is doing right now? Conversely, is there data that says OEL can't produce more playing in Ottawa, Montreal, Nashville (if he were to be substituted with said defenders)?

I'm unaware of any such data; even if those numbers somehow existed, I'm not sure what kind of statistical model exists that could possibly allow one to make those kind of assertions. The only way to reliably (sort of) say so would be if all those players played a season on each others' teams.

2) The situation that OEL is in is not static. It's fluid.
Why would a different team not matter, given the same usage? PPs don't become more or less effective? Even strength TOI can't represent more or less production? Better teams can't control possession and consistently force offensive zone starts? Linemates don't matter?!

My point is that I understand that OEL's perceived value is too high right now given his usage and his production with that usage; but it's also that OEL has the elite talent to potentially take advantage of a better team, even with the same usage. Those other team factors matter, and there is no data in the world that can predict that OEL will never increase his production given a different situation.

Thus, the reason why there's optimism when it comes to OEL is because 1) he's talented, and 2) Arizona looks like it's going to get better as a whole soon. Couple years type of soon.

OEL is currently averaging 45.3% OZ% and 2:35 of SH Ice Time per game, so things are a bit improved overall since I wrote the Cage Match article (when they were 46.0% and 2:54 respectively). I went back and found few if any indications that someone with both of those factors working against him could post more than 45 points, let alone 50. You can verify this yourself at nhl.com and behindthenet.ca. If you do, you will be faced with the sobering reality that a defenseman with that much SH Ice Time and that low of an OZ% will be offensively stifled no matter how talented he might be.

Of course I can't predict the future, but I'm a lot more comfortable making conclusions that draw from data that reflects actual past reality as opposed to talking about potential and maybes.

And frankly, I'm very glad people continue to be optimistic about players because of feelings and assessments of talent - it's a large reason why I'm the only one in my main league who's finished in the money each of the last 6 full seasons. But what I'm trying to do in being a writer here at Dobber is help give a more detached perspective that also happens to be grounded in real data.

[Jouko-Pouko]

If I was the Yotes, I’d take Strome over Hanifin, but they could be looking forward to next yr to the kid from Glendale. Might not want to over saturate the center position with Domi, Strome, and Matthews. The Yotes office is weird, so you never know with them.

But the future for the crappy offense of Yotes does look good. Especially if they get Eichel/McDavid, and tank next yr for another top 3 pick.

Domi projects as a winger at the NHL level in my opinion. Eichel-Matthews would be a great 1-2 punch down the middle. Like having two Malkins if they both develop as expected. Even Matthews-Strome would be really good. Hanzal is a better fit on the 3rd line and Gagner would be better as a winger, so the Coyotes are basically missing both of their Top-6 centers right now. That's why they should definitely draft a center with their top pick.

[Nikerato]

OEL is currently averaging 45.3% OZ% and 2:35 of SH Ice Time per game, so things are a bit improved overall since I wrote the Cage Match article (when they were 46.0% and 2:54 respectively). I went back and found few if any indications that someone with both of those factors working against him could post more than 45 points, let alone 50. You can verify this yourself at nhl.com and behindthenet.ca. If you do, you will be faced with the sobering reality that a defenseman with that much SH Ice Time and that low of an OZ% will be offensively stifled no matter how talented he might be.

Of course I can't predict the future, but I'm a lot more comfortable making conclusions that draw from data that reflects actual past reality as opposed to talking about potential and maybes.

And frankly, I'm very glad people continue to be optimistic about players because of feelings and assessments of talent - it's a large reason why I'm the only one in my main league who's finished in the money each of the last 6 full seasons. But what I'm trying to do in being a writer here at Dobber is help give a more detached perspective that also happens to be grounded in real data.

So you went back however many years and looked at every single player, and there were no examples of players with similar OZ% and SH Ice Time who produced more than 45 points in NHL history?

For this season:

OEL - 45.3% OZ%, 192:16 minutes of SH Ice Time, 38pts, 74gp, 0.51ppg
Josi - 44.9% OZ%, 186:56 minutes of SH Ice Time, 52pts, 74gp, 0.7ppg
Weber - 45.3% OZ%, 184:22 minutes of SH Ice Time, 45pts, 75gp, 0.61ppg

I'm missing something with what you're saying, or you need to elaborate further. I'm seeing tons of examples of players with similar usage that have produced more than 45 points in recent history.

[Jouko-Pouko]

OEL is currently averaging 45.3% OZ% and 2:35 of SH Ice Time per game, so things are a bit improved overall since I wrote the Cage Match article (when they were 46.0% and 2:54 respectively). I went back and found few if any indications that someone with both of those factors working against him could post more than 45 points, let alone 50. You can verify this yourself at nhl.com and behindthenet.ca. If you do, you will be faced with the sobering reality that a defenseman with that much SH Ice Time and that low of an OZ% will be offensively stifled no matter how talented he might be.

Of course I can't predict the future, but I'm a lot more comfortable making conclusions that draw from data that reflects actual past reality as opposed to talking about potential and maybes.

And frankly, I'm very glad people continue to be optimistic about players because of feelings and assessments of talent - it's a large reason why I'm the only one in my main league who's finished in the money each of the last 6 full seasons. But what I'm trying to do in being a writer here at Dobber is help give a more detached perspective that also happens to be grounded in real data.

- In 2013-2014, Pietrangelo was getting 52.3% OZ% while playing 3:21 TOI-SH. He scored 51 points.
- This season, Carlson is getting 49% OZ% while playing 3:04 TOI-SH. He's on pace for 53 points.

So a little better OZ% but lots more PK time. Also, I don't think OEL going from 45-46% to 49-52% is impossible when the team improves. But the Coyotes do need more depth at 'D', everyone knows that. And I know both Pietrangelo and Carlson were lucky during those seasons. But skill-wise, OEL might even be better than Pietrangelo and Carlson. And I'm saying this even though Pietrangelo is my personal favorite. So 55 points is very much possible for OEL in a few years. Not next season, though. I don't think OEL has the skills to score 60+ points, only a few players in the world can actually do that.

I always prefer judging players based on their skill-level instead of their usage because usage can change quickly. If the player is traded, if the team acquires an important player, a coach is changed... These things happen, and at that point player's usage doesn't matter one bit, only his skill-level.

Ryan Suter gets 40-45 points because he plays half the game on a strong team. He is nowhere near OEL when comparing their offensive skills. If you put OEL in Suter's place, playing 30 minutes per game on the Wild, OEL would score 50+ points for sure.

In the Monahan discussion you were saying how his OZ% will definitely improve and he will score 80+ points, here you're saying there's no way for OEL's OZ% to improve and therefore his upside is limited. So in one case you are predicting the future but here you're saying you can't predict the future. Where's the consistency?

I understand player usage is important but it's only one part of the equation; player's personal skill-level is just as important. And player usage can vary from season to season, so it's best used mid-season to see if said player is likely to improve or regress during the rest of the season (assuming no major changes have happened). You cannot predict the future solely using player usage because player usage can change at any time.

I'm in a dynasty money league with 20 teams and 23+27 player rosters. This is its 4th year and I've been in the Top-4 every year. Does that mean my style of judging players based on their skills is better? No. It means I've been lucky for four years. One thing has nothing to do with the other.

[audiopile]

So you went back however many years and looked at every single player, and there were no examples of players with similar OZ% and SH Ice Time who produced more than 45 points in NHL history?

For this season:

OEL - 45.3% OZ%, 192:16 minutes of SH Ice Time, 38pts, 74gp, 0.51ppg
Josi - 44.9% OZ%, 186:56 minutes of SH Ice Time, 52pts, 74gp, 0.7ppg
Weber - 45.3% OZ%, 184:22 minutes of SH Ice Time, 45pts, 75gp, 0.61ppg

I'm missing something with what you're saying, or you need to elaborate further. I'm seeing tons of examples of players with similar usage that have produced more than 45 points in recent history.

I think you just proved his point with that data.

EDIT - similar stats with better results from Josi and Weber, so OEL has the same opportunity to match their ppg avg but does not.