Ekman-Larsson

[GretzkysMullet]

I love the shots this year. On pace for 265. I think he's a 40 pt D no matter what, with upside for lots more depending on his situation, and growth as a player. Very happy to be an owner.

Also, kudos on coining the "chunk rate". That's nice

[RizzeeDizzee]

If the data I located in my Cage Match column on OEL is to be believed, the answer is no. Instead, look at what Ryan Suter is doing in Minny and consider OEL as Suter 2.0.

The issues with OEL are SH Ice Time and low OZ% will conspire to keep down his scoring even if he gets tons of Ice Time, including on the PP.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I'm banking on this right now. McDavid, Eichel, Strome or Marner... I think either brings a much needed offensive punch to the team, add in Domi and Duclair who likely make this team next year. I think OEL will take another step forward on EV and PP points, but also agree that his +/- will remain a bit of an anchor. however, I don't see it as any worse than it is now and gradually getting better each and every year.

He's a destined top 10 offensive D IMO. Depending on how long it takes for the entire team to turn around, he could crack top 5 in my "Subjective" opinion. (yes... through the eyes of an owner who's kept him the past 3 years). Love this guy.

The future is definitely bright but I wouldn't expect much next season. Just look at the situation in Florida, I think it's pretty similar. They have Barkov, Bjugstad and Huberdeau but still their team offense is terrible. Kids need time in the NHL, they can't carry a team in their first couple of seasons. But yeah, I don't see OEL's stats getting any worse than what they currently are. I don't think they'll improve much next season but gradually getting better, yes.

[JagrBomb]

i think smith's an average goalie, but with tippet he can post above average numbers. they are clearly tanking this year so i don't care if he lets in 10 goals a game, but next year with mcdavid and a bunch of young kids on the roster the team should be much better.

[Reuben]

I love that you keep pushing your research, Rizzee, and your views on OEL's situation.

I have him in two keeper leagues, so hope you're dead wrong....but I respect that you're sticking to your guns.

[jcairns]

In multi-cat leagues he is definitely a top 10 own every year going forward. Even if he never breaches 50 points in the next few years, he'll still be top 10 in multi-cat due to his ridiculous shot rate and good hits. He's on pace for something like 270 shots and 170 hits!

[Nikerato]

If the data I located in my Cage Match column on OEL is to be believed, the answer is no. Instead, look at what Ryan Suter is doing in Minny and consider OEL as Suter 2.0.

The issues with OEL are SH Ice Time and low OZ% will conspire to keep down his scoring even if he gets tons of Ice Time, including on the PP.

I think this is a somewhat shallow representation of a player's potential. Just because he kills penalties and is forced to start in his end, his production can't increase ever? Those are factors that does limit his potential now, but his team is terrible. He doesn't really have anyone to pass to that can reliably distribute the puck, and no other elite finisher that would give him assists.

I'd want to see some analysis of the impact of teammates, because it does matter. A lot. Add Domi, Duclair, and a top pick this year and tell me that OEL isn't going to see more production playing with those guys in various situations.

Either way, OEL has far more upside than Muzzin. I get that he may not be worth trading for until his team starts to show these changes, but if you already own him I don't think people should be trading him away.. As for drafts coming up, then sure I would probably let someone else take OEL too early. All this does not change the fact that OEL has a ton of potential and stands to benefit from an improved team. If you have him, keep him. If you don't, then let him prove it. That's the only change I would make to your conclusion in that cage match.

[Luffy D Monkey]

Hahah. OEL is awesome. He almost has 40 points in this crap season...I don't think people have any idea how good that is to be honest. For him to have almost 40 points and 20 goals when the absolute best forwards in the game have around 70 points right now...give your head a shake.

Muzzin? Dont tell me somebody chose Muzzin over him.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Hahah. OEL is awesome. He almost has 40 points in this crap season...I don't think people have any idea how good that is to be honest. For him to have almost 40 points and 20 goals when the absolute best forwards in the game have around 70 points right now...give your head a shake.

Muzzin? Dont tell me somebody chose Muzzin over him.

Read the article again. It's not choosing Muzzin over OEL - it's saying Muzzin is a better value. If I can draft Muzzin in the spot where he'd be available versus OEL in the spot he'd be available, I'd take Muzzin. Winning in fantasy hockey is picking guys whose actual value is higher than their perceived value (like Muzzin), rather than the opposite (like OEL).

[RizzeeDizzee]

Just because he kills penalties and is forced to start in his end, his production can't increase ever? Those are factors that does limit his potential now, but his team is terrible. He doesn't really have anyone to pass to that can reliably distribute the puck, and no other elite finisher that would give him assists.

See my response I just posted. And your statements above are just not correct. I parsed the data for all teams - good, bad, great, and all in between - and NO ONE was able to be productive in the situation OEL is in. The numbers don't lie. Potential and skill are great, but only can go so far. Look at how Ovi floundered for nearly two seasons when he was not able to play in a system where he could exploit his talents.

I simply cannot get over how many people are drinking the OEL kool-aid. Talk to guys who owned Suter 5 years ago and ask them how optimistic they were and how they wish they'd embraced reality instead.

[audiopile]

I get the numbers are what they are but situations can change on a team. The coach, the system, the players. Suddenly they start having better puck possession, more OZ time, OEL and Stone become a solid duo and presto 40 points becomes a consistent 50-55. I think this is what people are hoping for, it's what makes fantasy fun.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I get the numbers are what they are but situations can change on a team. The coach, the system, the players. Suddenly they start having better puck possession, more OZ time, OEL and Stone become a solid duo and presto 40 points becomes a consistent 50-55. I think this is what people are hoping for, it's what makes fantasy fun.

I can get that there's hope, but I can't get people not believing the numbers. And although hope does make fantasy fun, it doesn't usually win championships.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I love that you keep pushing your research, Rizzee, and your views on OEL's situation.

I have him in two keeper leagues, so hope you're dead wrong....but I respect that you're sticking to your guns.

Thanks. I keep bringing this up not to toot my own horn, but because I myself was shocked to see what I saw and I want folks to know about this because it's such an extreme case of perceived value being much greater than actual value.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Sorry to keep talking to myself, but I just realized, I think I accidentally invented a fancy stat. A Player's Points divided by their Team's Goals For. Call it the Chunk Rate. OEL has a Chunk Rate of .44 since the trade deadline, and a Chunk Rate of .23 over the whole season. In comparison, Crosby's Chunk Rate over the whole season is .37 and Tavares's is .33.

There's already a stat like this - IPP (in-percentage points). If 100 goals are scored at 5x5 while a player is on the ice and he tallies either a goal or an assist on 50 of them, then his 5x5 IPP would be 50%. If IPP is abnormally high - either in general or as compared to other players at the same position - it's usually a sign of unsustainable good luck.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Another thread where I make my usual OEL public service announcement: http://hockey.dobbersports.com/Cage-...-vs-ryan-suter

And just to clarify again, this is not something I do to raise my profile or to slam OEL. I just feel that people think he walks on water when in truth he's poised to be Ryan Suter 2.0, which is fine in reality but likely would be seen as a disappointment in view of very lofty expectations.