Ekman-Larsson

[LEAFS225]

The team stinks, but can he take advantage of the extra minutes with Yandle gone and produce some more?

If not this year, is he a top 5-10 fantasy defenseman for years to come? Would like some thoughts.

[0PucksGiven]

Yandle and OEL worked well together. I don't think this will hurt his play, I also don't think it will help it much

[potatoetree]

There's been some pretty good posts and articles about OEL on this forum. The gist of them is that OEL in a sense has "maxed out" his offensive ice time, even when Yandle was on the team. In other words, he already has huge responsibilities both defensively and offensively, and these don't change significantly with Yandle's departure. It is possible he is leaned on more heavily on EV strength, and may start regularly playing more than 25 mins a game if they don't acquire another defensemen, but whether this translates to more fantasy points is not that likely.

Granted he may somehow find another gear, but signs point to him just continueing his current production. It is the other defensemen such as Stone and Gormley, Murphy that will attempt to cannibalize Yandles icetime and benefit.

[MarmotKing]

I think OEL was already having all the chances he could and I don't think Yandle leaving will get him more offensive icetime. I don't know what he'll be able to do offensively going forward for the next couple of years with the team ahead of him. He should hope McDavid lands in Arizona.

[havanablast21]

McDavid in Pheonix could have a huge impact on OEL's future. He's been doing it without an offensive force in front of him. The thought of Duclair, Domi and McDavid or Eichel with OEL... I'm loving the potential next step.

[Chunkys_Choice]

Since the trade deadline, Arizona has scored a grand total of 16 goals. In that time, OEL has 7 points. If my math is correct, Ekman-Larsson is currently scoring or assisting on almost 44% of Coyotes goals. Statistical oddity or sign of things to come?

I'll try to answer my own question: while he's not gonna score 90 points next year, perhaps the Yandle trade helps OEL more than was initially thought.

[Chunkys_Choice]

Sorry, just noticed this other thread:
http://forums.dobbersports.com/showt...-Ekman-Larsson
If someone has the ability to combine them, please go ahead.

[Chunkys_Choice]

Sorry to keep talking to myself, but I just realized, I think I accidentally invented a fancy stat. A Player's Points divided by their Team's Goals For. Call it the Chunk Rate. OEL has a Chunk Rate of .44 since the trade deadline, and a Chunk Rate of .23 over the whole season. In comparison, Crosby's Chunk Rate over the whole season is .37 and Tavares's is .33.

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

Things could go either way for OEL next season.... Either he struggles with the lack of help, or he becomes the focal point of the attack a la Karlsson and sets a career high in points.

I don't know if he has the natural offensive ability of Karlsson to lead an offense, but I do expect him to have a high "chunk rate" as you put it.

[gooding74]

I'd project big time points and massive double-digit negative plus minus. Something like 50 points, 25 power-play points, 200+ shots on goal, but a -30 to drag his fantasy value down. Wouldn't be surprised if he also leads the Desert Dogs in scoring.

[2014olympicgold]

If Arizona gets McDavid OEL wins big. Yotes actually have a fair bit of good youth coming, not a playoff team yet (*cough* Smith *cough*) but they’ll put up a fair bit of goals. And if McDavid, Domi, Boedker line happens, that’ll be a fun PP to watch I think.

Lessio, Duclair, Samuelsson, Gormley, Domi, Rieder, another Samuelsson, and Visentin are all blue chip prospects that’ll be in the NHL by 2016-17 season at the latest. Then add in McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Hanifin, or Marner. As bad as they are, they have some really good minor leaguers ready to show what they have.

They could have OEL, Gormley, and Hanifin for their defense. That’s quite the depth at D. If Arizona drafts Hanifin, Gormley could turn into a Pietrangelo, a strong 2-way D that’s locked behind offensive depth so he won’t showcase his PP talent. Hanifin+OEL could be the best PP specialist combo in a few yrs, especially with Domi’s creativity helping create space for them.

[Jouko-Pouko]

If Arizona gets McDavid OEL wins big. Yotes actually have a fair bit of good youth coming, not a playoff team yet (*cough* Smith *cough*) but they’ll put up a fair bit of goals. And if McDavid, Domi, Boedker line happens, that’ll be a fun PP to watch I think.

Lessio, Duclair, Samuelsson, Gormley, Domi, Rieder, another Samuelsson, and Visentin are all blue chip prospects that’ll be in the NHL by 2016-17 season at the latest. Then add in McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Hanifin, or Marner. As bad as they are, they have some really good minor leaguers ready to show what they have.

They could have OEL, Gormley, and Hanifin for their defense. That’s quite the depth at D. If Arizona drafts Hanifin, Gormley could turn into a Pietrangelo, a strong 2-way D that’s locked behind offensive depth so he won’t showcase his PP talent. Hanifin+OEL could be the best PP specialist combo in a few yrs, especially with Domi’s creativity helping create space for them.

I don't see the Coyotes drafting a D-man with their top pick. Unless they rise in the standings AND someone ahead of them (in standings) wins the lottery, they're going to get a Top-3 pick. That means they get one of McDavid, Eichel or Strome. I believe Strome is a better prospect than Hanifin, and the Coyotes need a top forward more than a top D-man. They already have OEL, Stone, Gormley, C.Murphy and Moore who are all really young. They just need time to develop. They can draft a D-man with Chicago's 1st round pick or their own 2nd round pick which is really high as well. Someone like Carlo, Cernak, Roy or Chabot is surely available with those picks.

This is how I would rank the Coyotes prospects:
- Blue-chip prospects: Domi, Duclair, ARZ 2015 1st round pick
- Good prospects: Gormley, H.Samuelsson, Perlini, Dvorak, Lessio, Rieder, C.Murphy, CHI 2015 1st round pick, ARZ 2015 2nd round pick
- Decent prospects: Visentin, Dauphin, MacInnis, Letunov

The rest are just depth prospects, including Philip Samuelsson who passed waivers during last season, and was traded for Rob Klinkhammer who isn't very good.

But yeah, Domi, Duclair and whoever they draft this year are blue-chip prospects who will carry that team offensively in a few years. They will all play in the NHL next season in my opinion but they're not ready to carry the team yet. They won't probably play together at first because putting three rookies on the same line is usually not a good idea. But they may end up playing together long-term (Domi at LW, Duclair at RW, McDavid/Eichel/Strome at C).

Either way, OEL and those three are the biggest building blocks of that team. If one or two of those building blocks fail, they need another one, most likely from the draft. They should be drafting pretty high in 2016 as well. In 2015-2016, their lineup could look something like this:
Boedker-Eichel-Doan (Doan given a spot here out of respect and lack or better options)
Domi-Hanzal-Duclair (existing chemistry between Domi and Duclair)
Korpikoski-Gagner-Rieder (Korpikoski and Lessio could also swap spots)
Lessio-Chipchura-Vitale (Chipchura/Vitale could also be scratched)

OEL-Stone
Moore-Gormley
Dahlbeck-C.Murphy

Of course it's very much possible they trade players like Gagner, Korpikoski and Doan (if he wants to leave) to make room for players like H.Samuelsson and Dvorak. But just looking at the players they currently have, that's how I see it. I would prefer putting Gagner at Right Wing but that would mean H.Samuelsson would have to win the 3rd line Center spot. That's certainly possible but it also pushes one of Korpikoski or Rieder to the 4th line.

[2014olympicgold]

If I was the Yotes, I’d take Strome over Hanifin, but they could be looking forward to next yr to the kid from Glendale. Might not want to over saturate the center position with Domi, Strome, and Matthews. The Yotes office is weird, so you never know with them.

But the future for the crappy offense of Yotes does look good. Especially if they get Eichel/McDavid, and tank next yr for another top 3 pick.

[havanablast21]

If Arizona gets McDavid OEL wins big. Yotes actually have a fair bit of good youth coming, not a playoff team yet (*cough* Smith *cough*) but they’ll put up a fair bit of goals. And if McDavid, Domi, Boedker line happens, that’ll be a fun PP to watch I think.

Lessio, Duclair, Samuelsson, Gormley, Domi, Rieder, another Samuelsson, and Visentin are all blue chip prospects that’ll be in the NHL by 2016-17 season at the latest. Then add in McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Hanifin, or Marner. As bad as they are, they have some really good minor leaguers ready to show what they have.

They could have OEL, Gormley, and Hanifin for their defense. That’s quite the depth at D. If Arizona drafts Hanifin, Gormley could turn into a Pietrangelo, a strong 2-way D that’s locked behind offensive depth so he won’t showcase his PP talent. Hanifin+OEL could be the best PP specialist combo in a few yrs, especially with Domi’s creativity helping create space for them.

I'm banking on this right now. McDavid, Eichel, Strome or Marner... I think either brings a much needed offensive punch to the team, add in Domi and Duclair who likely make this team next year. I think OEL will take another step forward on EV and PP points, but also agree that his +/- will remain a bit of an anchor. however, I don't see it as any worse than it is now and gradually getting better each and every year.

He's a destined top 10 offensive D IMO. Depending on how long it takes for the entire team to turn around, he could crack top 5 in my "Subjective" opinion. (yes... through the eyes of an owner who's kept him the past 3 years). Love this guy.

[jman]

With a 'Chunk Rate' of .44, he's putting up decent numbers in a worst case scenario. Give him some offensive help, like the young forwards mentioned in this thread, and you have a very attractive scenario. So basically his already good numbers will not get worse, they will only get better. The question is how much better... Karlsson? Not in my opinion. But, I believe he is not even close to his peak yet as he is only 23 years old. Look out, this guy is going to be even more of a beast.