Where to draft McDavid in a new dynasty?

[Hunter9]

Title.

Points
G - 3
A - 2
+/- - 1
Pim - .5

[VintageVibe]

Well, MacK went in the 1st round (6th overall) of my #2 dynasty league this year. Even though I think the owner was crazy and reached there, one's gotta think that's about where McDavid goes in keeper/dynasty leagues next year - he's going to be better, if not a lot better, than MacKinnon.

The more I think about it the more interesting this gets.

Sid and Ovie are still in their prime but next year or the year after they'll be starting to fade - maybe not fade but they won't be dominating as consistently as they did in their 20s. Kids like Tavares, Seguin, MacK, and McDavid will be gaining on them as far as value goes.

Depending on the size of the league some might take McDavid first overall as soon as next year while others might be ballsy, get lucky and wait until the early 2nd round to grab him.

[2014olympicgold]

All depends on the GM. Off the bat a team could be going for a long term win and only draft youth (Drouin, Mac, McD, Eichel, Forsberg, Tarasenko) kinda deal. He’ll be O-Ranked in the 100s I think, but he’ll be gone by the start of the 4^th round I think. Also it’s hard to say without knowing what team he’d be on. If he’s a Leaf, a lot of homers will draft him early, and if he’s Carolina, you can see his Avg Draft Position drop.

[reeveta]

Considering some of the fantasy GMs I know, he will go top 10 maybe top 5. In my opinion, someone will reach for him thinking of the next Crosby. Likely not the right move but that is where I think he will go.

If you want him, my opinion is to wait until December next year when he is likely putting up good not great numbers and then him the owner up with a 'knock your socks off' package of young players. Remember the GM who drafts him likely overvalues youth.

[Pengwin7]

My answer to thread:
Second overall.

[4horsemen]

Does your league have a cap? If it does then it should be one of the number one questions you ask yourself when coming up with player valuations. Capped leagues turn traditional value structures on their head

[Fighting_Emu]

My answer to thread:
Second overall.

Gutsy!

I like McDavid a lot but Im sure Id miss him in a new draft because your giving your one year odds a serious kick in the pants by taking him where youd need to. So many variables- even with the best players on the planet. Poolies are funny too- once a guys hype has worn off (See Ovechkin A.) it doesnt even matter if theyre leading the league in goals or (Malkin E.) averaging 100 point per season paces- they just become kind of meh.

i will say McDavid is special- and not contending that pick- but not for me that high- no way sir...

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Does your league have a cap? If it does then it should be one of the number one questions you ask yourself when coming up with player valuations. Capped leagues turn traditional value structures on their head

This is absolutely true. Never have truer (or underrated-er) words been written.

[glorybe23]

I would pull the trigger 2nd overall.

Go for the homerun!

[Pengwin7]

Gutsy!

I like McDavid a lot but Im sure Id miss him in a new draft because your giving your one year odds a serious kick in the pants by taking him where youd need to. So many variables- even with the best players on the planet. Poolies are funny too- once a guys hype has worn off (See Ovechkin A.) it doesnt even matter if theyre leading the league in goals or (Malkin E.) averaging 100 point per season paces- they just become kind of meh.

i will say McDavid is special- and not contending that pick- but not for me that high- no way sir...

Make a list then.
If it were multi-cat... I'd say OV might be up there.
This is essentially points only with 2.5points per "point". (G=3,A=2)

Even a 50g,35a Ovechkin is worth 150+70=220.
Maybe for another year or two and then he'll be 40/30-ish guy 3 years from now.

McDavid's gonna do 40g/60a yearly, I think... from his Year 3 on... and don't forget, there's an 80% chance he goes somewhere not named BUF... and that's good.

Everything we've heard about McDavid suggests he could be a Crosby/Tavares... which essentially makes him a top five player.
And all SUPER-HYPE youth have "perceived trade value".

There's also benefit of going with McDavid in a dynasty because you establish your direction early.
You can draft all young kids, target young goalies, tank your first year, while everybody else competes (because that's what everybody does in Year #1).

There's nobody else in the NHL that I'd call a 100pt player right now except Crosby.
McDavid's the only guy in the NHL that I'm willing to say... in 5 years... will be a lock for 90+pts (if healthy).

Also - assuming it's a snake draft... there's a LOT of players that you have to wait to watch go by.
Probably enough where Jack Eichel is there at your 2nd/3rd round pick.

I mean... if you go McDavid... and then land Eichel.
I mean...
I mean...
Yummy.

[JagrBomb]

this is going to be the funniest thread to read a year from now lol.

i'd say top 10, top 5 if it's a cap league.

he hasn't even played a game yet. he's likely going to be a star, but is his upside, which is probably 5-10 points higher, really worth the risk of passing over an already established star like tavares, stamkos etc?

[Fighting_Emu]

Make a list then.
If it were multi-cat... I'd say OV might be up there.
This is essentially points only with 2.5points per "point". (G=3,A=2)

Even a 50g,35a Ovechkin is worth 150+70=220.
Maybe for another year or two and then he'll be 40/30-ish guy 3 years from now.

McDavid's gonna do 40g/60a yearly, I think... from his Year 3 on... and don't forget, there's an 80% chance he goes somewhere not named BUF... and that's good.

Everything we've heard about McDavid suggests he could be a Crosby/Tavares... which essentially makes him a top five player.
And all SUPER-HYPE youth have "perceived trade value".

There's also benefit of going with McDavid in a dynasty because you establish your direction early.
You can draft all young kids, target young goalies, tank your first year, while everybody else competes (because that's what everybody does in Year #1).

There's nobody else in the NHL that I'd call a 100pt player right now except Crosby.
McDavid's the only guy in the NHL that I'm willing to say... in 5 years... will be a lock for 90+pts (if healthy).

Also - assuming it's a snake draft... there's a LOT of players that you have to wait to watch go by.
Probably enough where Jack Eichel is there at your 2nd/3rd round pick.

I mean... if you go McDavid... and then land Eichel.
I mean...
I mean...
Yummy.

Im not disagreeing- and it would make drafting *with a plan* interesting. I just have a tough time not going for it- unless Im clearly in need of a re-build. Maybe its ego. We spend so much time evaluating, appraising, calculating- I just feel like hardcore fantasy fanatics have an inherent advatage. McDavid (likely) kills that in year one, maybe year 2- depending how fast he peaks- which admittedly should be very fast. Also i like to build around *known quantities* i guess- and sprinkle my gamble picks in later in the draft.

Last note- and only cause I responded to a Malkinator thread earlier- Malk has actually averged 1.2 ppg pace over his entire career- which is a 98 point pace. Not 100 bu just sayin

[fantasyhockeygeek]

he's likely going to be a star, but is his upside, which is probably 5-10 points higher, really worth the risk of passing over an already established star like tavares, stamkos etc?

In a cap league, yes. It's all about $/production ratios, and he could be absolutely sweet there. Tavares should be the top pick in a cap setup. If there's no cap, he shouldn't be top-10.

[Pengwin7]

he's likely going to be a star

Definitely.
I would be confident enough on McDavid to use the term "definitely"... (health permitting, of course).

Scouts have not yet failed at their predictions on "Next Ones".
Since Gretzky/Lemieux, the annointees have been:
*Lindros
*Crosby
*Tavares

Of those... the WORST statistically thus far is Tavares.
I mean... let's say somebody took Tavares 4th overall in a 2009 dynasty pool - Tavares draft year.
[Back then, I doubt anybody was taking him over Crosby/Malkin/Ovechkin - all young 100+pt hyped players]

But there ARE people would be kicking themselves for taking the following high-scoring 2008-2009 players:
Oh, I should've drafted the 97pt Datsyuk.
Oh, I should've drafted the 94pt Parise.
Oh, I should've drafted the 91pt Kovalchuk.
Oh, I should've drafted the 91pt Getzlaf.
Oh, I should've drafted the 89pt Iginla.
Oh, I should've drafted the 88pt Marc Savard.
Oh, I should've drafted the 88pt Nicklas Backstrom.

Proven is "nice".
But that secondary group of players is sometimes only good for 5 really good years (Datsyuk, Parise, Kovy, for example).

Of those "established" players... maybe people who drafted Getzlaf or Backstrom are not upset with their choices.
But anybody drafting a "proven" player like Datsyuk, or Parise, or Kovalchuk... just to compete for the near future... that was the wrong pick (in retrospect).

McDavid won't be a bust.
...Because Lindros & Crosby & Tavares weren't busts... and scouts don't make mistakes on the Generational Talent level.
These "generational" guys are 20%-30% better than the next best at their level.
It DOES translate (that margin) to the NHL.

[and fwiw, guys like Yakupov or Stefan... past busts... weren't 20%-30% better than their peers... closer to 3%-5% better... marginally #1s in weak classes. I think this is where some people get a tad scared about high-drafting a "rookie"... McDavid... just different. Fantasy hockey GMs need to have faith in him the same way somebody should have had faith in Lindros, Crosby, Tavares... and it paid off.)

[Fighting_Emu]

this is going to be the funniest thread to read a year from now lol.

i'd say top 10, top 5 if it's a cap league.

he hasn't even played a game yet. he's likely going to be a star, but is his upside, which is probably 5-10 points higher, really worth the risk of passing over an already established star like tavares, stamkos etc?

Im not taking the same *hard line* stance as you- but I generally agree. Tavares with a chance to compete this year, next year, and then MAYBE losing 10 or so points in year 3 is the route Im more comfortable with. Thaat being said I understand he could be Crosby- if hes the next crosby I guess theres logic enough to take him number 2- after Crosby of course

But yea again- preference thing- not saying its wrong- just saying Ill take a proven guy and go all in for the next couple years. of course that likely means Ill never own mcdavid- lol!