Evander Kane - The Jets chance of securing a playoff spot hangs on him

[Wfactor]

Evander Kane – Winnipeg Jets are way better with him, and he will turn it around soon

Statistics: 10 Goals / 9 Assists / 19 Points / 113 Shots / 7 Powerplay-Points / 108 Hits
2:12 PP-TOI / 3.74 Corsi-On / 1001 PDO / 4.2 Corsi-Relative / 7.83 On-Ice SH%

Winnipeg is looking like a strong possibility for a Wild Card spot in the West. They have good goaltending; the arrival of Hutchinson to the NHL makes it a 1A, 1B situation for the Jets. Having Pavalec who has improved now that he has less of the load to carry; in turn this has helped the defense stay afloat despite numerous injuries to key top six defensemen. The Jets forward core is doing very good this year, even though Evander Kane was injured in game one and missed the next eight games. Once he returned to the lineup he did little to contribute offensively 1 point and 10 shots in his first four games back, I speculated whether or not he rushed back from the injury causing a dip in play quality while he still nursed the knee to full health.

Despite the multiple three game pointless streaks, Kane has still managed to get just over a point for every two games, netting 19 total points through 33 games played. I would think these numbers will go up when Winnipeg trades for a playoff push and acquires a skillful play-maker to set him up. His possession numbers are good; a positive corsi along with a high number of shots on goal, the following zone start percentages 48.1 OZS% 51.0 OZF% shows just how much he drives possession even with the tough job of starting the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone for Coach Paul Maurice. Maurice has a lot of options to work with compared to earlier coaches, in terms of skill and personnel. Perrault, Ladd and Little are having career years, not to mention the usual crowd at the top of jets scoring Byfuglien, and Wheeler. As long as Kane doesn’t go back to Halischuk and Lowry as his ES line-mates his scoring should improve vastly in the last half of the current season.

If the injury bug can leave Kane alone he should earn a spot in the top six permanently and not have to worry about being relegated to the third for the rest of his career. Coupled with his special team’s use a permanent spot in the top six will allow his offense to blossom and show us what he can really do if given a proper opportunity. Kane gets 39.4% of Winnipeg’s total power-play and 26.6% of the shorthanded time, which gives him the chance to get shorthanded goals.

Evander Kane
Even Strength Line Combos:
32.4% KANE,E - SCHEIFELE,M - WHEELER,B
27.5% HALISCHUK,M - KANE,E - LOWRY,A

Power-play Line Combos
33.9% KANE,E - SCHEIFELE,M - WHEELER,B
27.9% FROLIK,M - KANE,E - SCHEIFELE,M
13.7% FROLIK,M - KANE,E - PERREAULT,M - SCHEIFELE,M
13.1% KANE,E - PERREAULT,M - SCHEIFELE,M
11.5% KANE,E - WHEELER,B

Point Production through 2 Quarters

In the first quarter (14 games played) of the season he struggled scoring points; a points per game of 0.43% had a lot of people start to give up on him ever getting to the massive potential he had that made him a fourth overall pick in the 2009 draft. His career year had come in 2011-12 getting 57 points in 74 games played and it felt a long time off. He rebounded in the second quarter his point per game had improved greatly to 0.75%, which adds to nine points in twelve games played and may have calmed some owners. In the current third quarter he has 4 goals and four points in the seven games so far in the small sample size, which is a 0.57% point per game rate. He seems to have settled on the Jets second unit with Frolik, and Scheifele as his line-mates, a line which he can concentrate on shooting and hitting is one he will excel in.
Kane should produce at 0.65% points per game pace in the remaining games of the season which would have him finish with close to 50 points and 25 goals. His advanced stats are a good indicator of him improving or at the least continuing his current pace of nine points in the 14 games since Dec, 13 2014. While his fantasy value may be at an all-time low right now the window for it is slowly shutting. If he is available as a waiver wire pick up I would make that claim in a second, or else try and buy low on this Winnipeg Jets power forward while you still can and sit back and reap the rewards.

[Rad64]

I would argue that the play of Kane has little to do with the Jet's chance of securing a play-off spot this season. The biggest factor in the Jet's improved play this season lies at the feet of coach Paul Maurice. The Jets under Noel were a mess in the defensive zone..with little improvement during his tenure. Many fans argued that it must be the players, but it was easy to see it was system-related (and the proof is in the pudding with Maurice with Winnipeg currently 5th in goals against/games played). Impoved goaltending with Hutchinson may have helped, but you'll notice that Maurice has played Hutchinson quite a bit, whereas Noel had refused to increase the play of his backups when they were outplaying Pavelec.
It's too bad the Jets didn't find Maurice earlier....

As for Kane's spot in the lineup, he's a 3rd liner on the Jets. He hasn't shown any chemistry with the Jet's top 6 forwards and no one in their right mind is going to break up the Ladd-Little-Wheeler or Perrault-Scheifele-Frolik line, both are sizzling as of late.

If Kane is going to improve his stat-line, he's going to need Chevy to upgrade Halischuk on the right side.

[LakeSoup]

Good analysis. Personally, I think their contention for the postseason has most to do with Lowry's burgeoning as a great 3C, a potent top 4 D (Buff really strutting his stuff, Trouba's savvy, Stuart's consistent play and Bogosian finally bringing it) and non-complacent goaltending. That acquisition of Perreault IMO bolsters the 2nd line enough so that it's not all on E. Kane's shoulders.

[JagrBomb]

jets should trade him while his value is still pretty high. too many off ice distractions, and his on ice performance isn't making it worthwhile to ignore them. i'm sure they can get a damn good return for him that would make the jets a much better team.

[Maaaasquito]

Interesting take...

Here's some more "real life" numbers for discussion...

Jets 22-6-7 with him in the line up... averaging 3.11 goals per game, 16.7% PP efficiency
Jets 4-8-1 without him in the lineup... averaging 1.69 goals per game, 18.4% PP efficiency

I agree with Rad64... The Jets are built like the Kings/Bruins/Hawks/Blues with size and offensive depth, I don't think Kane is an integral cog that is the main reason for them winning... What they need to do is find some help and complement him on the 3rd line... maybe grab a Vermette, Cullen, Stewart or Erat at the deadline to help supplement the depth and really give some more offensive oomph on the 3rd line... With Burmistrov, Ehlers, Petan, Morrissey they have a lot of young pieces that could be moved for genuine pieces back in return...

[Wfactor]

Interesting take...

Here's some more "real life" numbers for discussion...

Jets 22-6-7 with him in the line up... averaging 3.11 goals per game, 16.7% PP efficiency
Jets 4-8-1 without him in the lineup... averaging 1.69 goals per game, 18.4% PP efficiency

I agree with Rad64... The Jets are built like the Kings/Bruins/Hawks/Blues with size and offensive depth, I don't think Kane is an integral cog that is the main reason for them winning... What they need to do is find some help and complement him on the 3rd line... maybe grab a Vermette, Cullen, Stewart or Erat at the deadline to help supplement the depth and really give some more offensive oomph on the 3rd line... With Burmistrov, Ehlers, Petan, Morrissey they have a lot of young pieces that could be moved for genuine pieces back in return...

This proves what I am saying in the article that the Jets play better with him in the lineup he completes the teams offense. Without him they are not a playoff team IMO obviously other players are important but he is a key part. Hutchinson and Pavalec will be the two most important with having to go against top teams in the West.

[Maaaasquito]

I don't know if he is the reason behind it... there is certainly a correlation... but you also have to keep in mind that Kane was hurt at the start of the year, and the Jets looked very disorganized during the first 10 or so games then really picked it up... In the Dec/Jan stretch where he was missing, they lost against a hot Isles, pretty solid Sharks... I've watched a few Jets games, and it's really the Ladd, Little, Wheeler line that makes the Jets tick... Kane looks dangerous at times, but also is invisible in most games too... I think if you ask many diehard Jets fans, they'll probably draw a similar conclusion.

Definitely agree with you that when Kane plays well, Jets have a much higher chance for success, but it's a stretch to say that their playoff hopes "hang on him"...

[LakeSoup]

This proves what I am saying in the article that the Jets play better with him in the lineup he completes the teams offense. Without him they are not a playoff team IMO obviously other players are important but he is a key part. Hutchinson and Pavalec will be the two most important with having to go against top teams in the West.

With/without lineup stats are misleading. I mean, they don't have anyone to really replace Kane in that slot. But if Ladd or Wheeler went down, they'd probably have trouble too. IMO not doing well with Kane in the line up =/= essential to going to playoffs.

Playing armchair GM atm but if the Jets could move Kane for a 3rd line fringe forward + a prospect (pretty much what Maas said, Erat sounds really good to me)

[Wfactor]

With/without lineup stats are misleading. I mean, they don't have anyone to really replace Kane in that slot. But if Ladd or Wheeler went down, they'd probably have trouble too. IMO not doing well with Kane in the line up =/= essential to going to playoffs.

Playing armchair GM atm but if the Jets could move Kane for a 3rd line fringe forward + a prospect (pretty much what Maas said, Erat sounds really good to me)

I'm not saying he is the be all end all of the Jets, but he is a dynamic forward whether people like his off ice antics or not. When you can add a player of that caliber and skill-set it makes all the other lines more dangerous, teams cant solely focus on Wheeler.
Kane is just 23 and if that's all they get for him I would be extremely disappointed in the Jets management team.