Is this the new norm for Karlsson?

[icet88]

Karlsson is on pace for 55 points this season, which is still great for a D, but a huge dissapointment compared to last season's 74 points.
Does anybody see him going back to 75 points in the next season or two or is 55-60 points more relaistic going forward?

There's still time for a 2nd half surge, but looking at Karlsson's previous seasons, he's pretty conistent throughout the year, so usually his second half production matches his first half production.

[Big Ev]

When your previous norm was that high, your new norm isn't the most recent season. You'll probably be able to steal him next year.

[lektrix]

5 goals and he couldn't even pick up a PPA. Anything less than 65 this year would be a bust. Can't even blame Spezza because he's sucking it up on Dallas this year...

[Avangard]

Karlsson has been asked to play more defensively. It's a mere question of time before he starts again to produce. Try to steal him before he gets back at it !

[Big Ev]

5 goals and he couldn't even pick up a PPA. Anything less than 65 this year would be a bust. Can't even blame Spezza because he's sucking it up on Dallas this year...

a very young team who struggles offensively is not out of the norm. First year as Captain, hasn't had a steady D partner all year. If people undervalue him long-term, they are going to regret it.

[icet88]

When your previous norm was that high, your new norm isn't the most recent season. You'll probably be able to steal him next year.

Big Ev, can you shed some light on why the big drop off in production this season? Spezza leaving OTT can't be the sole reason for a 20 point drop.
Even when looking at the goals for this season (2.64/g) vs last season (2.79/g), it doesn't seem like a big enough of a drop to have such a negative impact.

EDIT: NEVER MIND, You answered my question while I was typing the message. So I guess you see him going back to his 70+ days in the near future

[2014olympicgold]

If Karlsson was shooting at his normal pace (high 7%) he’d have 12goals (23 in 82games), and 300SOG. 300! That’s ridiculous, even for a defenseman. If he finishes off the next 40games on his traditional shooting% and assists rate, he’ll finish off with 18goals and 48assists for a total of 66pts. Still damn good. I always looked at him as a 60-70pt d-man, and anything more was just icing.

Also he gets about 40% of his points on the Powerplay, this yr he’s got over 50% on the PP. Even if his point production dips, I can see him still getting ~30ppp. If you couple Karlsson with a PP expert on your fantasy team (Giroux, Simmonds, backstrom, Ovi) you’ll win that category in H2H almost every week.

[Pengwin7]

^Great post (& REP).

I have/still view Karlsson as a 60-70pt player.
He'll have years with bad luck where 60pts will be tough to hit.
He'll have years with good luck where 70pts will be met.

There's not other NHL defenseman in this range.
And I'd be leery about putting any NHL defenseman even in the 50-60pt range - for "average year".
Putting Yandle & Subbban & Weber as consistent 45-55pt guys is probably as safe as I feel going on the next tier down.
And there's maybe 15+ D-men I'd peg in the 40-50pt range.

That's how ELITE Karlsson is as point-scoring goes. (IMO)

[ericdaoust]

You know you're good when you're a dman on pace for 55 and everyone is freaking out.

[2014olympicgold]

You know you're good when you're a dman on pace for 55 and everyone is freaking out.

It’s like when Ovi had a bad yr and scored 38goals.

[fungchen3]

I said it immediately in the summer when the Sens made him Captain, and let Spezza go, that Karlsson owners were in for a down season. It was clear as day. Not only are the Sens a non-sexy offensive team with no high-end gamebreakers (other than Karlsson himself), but the C comes with the burden of leading by example and sacrifice. In Karlsson's case, the sacrifice has been giving up offense in attempts to make the team all-around better. Although happy for Karlsson getting the C, I absolutely hated it from a fantasy perspective. Will he bounce back? I sure hope so. But the Sens don't have much firepower or players who can play the game on Karlsson's elite level. Swap him and Hedman - putting Karlsson on Tampa - and he's a lock to score 85 points a year.

[Slug]

Not sure where the notion of Karlsson giving up offensive attempts comes from. He's shooting the puck more than ever before, previous career high for SOG per game is 3.2 he is averaging 3.7 SOG per game this year. I would argue he has actually taken on more offensive burden but hasn't had great luck so far based on his SH%.

[gfunkb7]

Is there a possibility that karlsson is the Green 2.0?

[Loch]

Is there a possibility that karlsson is the Green 2.0?

Not as band-aid-esque and better defensively so I'm not too concerned.

Aside from the skate cut he's been durable which was Green's biggest problem (that and the moped).

[kiboshed]

yes