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Thread: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

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    Default Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    First let’s review Oliver Ekman Larsson statistics so far this season, heading into the Christmas break. He has been a workhorse in Arizona, getting PP-TOI, SH-TOI and all the tough Competition, which is good for Hits, and SH-TOI points. His current pace is 39 points at end of the year.

    5V5 Individual Stats: 572 TOI 3 Goals, 4 Assists, 7 Points, 65 Shots, 76 Fenwick, 95.9 PDO, 0.63 Pts/60 5.70 team SH%, 49.3 FF% (% of shots while player is on the ice that were scored by his team)
    5V4 Individual Stats: 143 TOI 5 Goals, 4 Assists, 9 Points, 40 Shots, 88 iCorsi, 7.50Sh%, 2.94 Pts/60,
    101.8 PDO, 12.10 Sh%

    His 5V5 game is just screaming second half surge, and if he can continue with his good Powerplay pace, he will end up with close to 45 points and might be a career high depending if Arizona could figure out how to be consistent. If for the rest of the season he can fire at a 0.60 ppg for the remaining 48 GP he could reach 45 +.
    In October OEL got 5 of his 9 PPP and since then the team has struggled to score with the man advantage. Having only 1 point in November on the powerplay. Three games in that stretch saw him garner less then 1:50 pp-TOI a game.
    His low On-Ice SH% 5.68, and relatively unlucky 950PDO is further proof that he should have an uptick in points and should make him a decent buy in leagues who count Hits, PPP and Shots. He shoots the puck a lot and already has 8 goals on the season, his career highest in goals is 15 on 199 shots in 80Gp. (2013/14) His current season shot total is 105, and averaging 3.10 shots a game, putting him on pace to hit 254 which would shatter his previous high in SOG.

    Fantasy Hockey Christmas break review: 8 Goals, 8 Assists, -14 +/-, 16 PIM, 9 PPP, 34GP, 63 Hits, 105 Shots
    In conclusion he should be one of the better defensemen in multi-cat leagues to own in the final 48 GP. Try and Buy low while you can!
    NFHA categories: G(25) A(25) PIM(3) Hits(2) Blocks(2) PPP(15) SHP(20) Goalie Stats: W(50) Sv(2) ShOu(100) OtL(10) ShL(10) L(-10) GA(-12)
    Cold As Ice Dynasty H2H categories: G A PIM SOG PPP +/- HIT BLK WINS GAA SV% SHO
    Starting Roster:
    Center - Giroux, Krejci, W.Karlsson
    Left Wing - Hall, Guentzel, Danault
    Right Wing - Stone, R.Smith, Compher
    Ultility Forward - Fast, Gaborik
    Defense - Klingberg, Pietrangelo, Jones, C.Miller, Phanuef, E.Johnson
    Goalie - Allen, R.Miller
    Bench - M.Foligno, Sheahan, Laughton, Glendening, Djoos, Jensen, H.Fleury
    Prospects - Kyrou, Andersson Hinostroza, Grundstrom, Roy, Timmins, Grzelcyk, Lauzon, Lindgren

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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    second I post my thoughts on Bozak on pace to set career highs
    Tyler Bozak
    Why Bozak is a legit top 6 forward, and a top line center with the right chemistry. (I.e. Kessel) His numbers are without a doubt helped by having Kessel who is one of the most prolific scorers in today’s NHL on his wing, but his high hockey IQ is undeniable, along with his deceptive shot, and good passing ability. His board play is alright helping keep the play alive while driving ok possession -10.4 CorRel. He has 11 PPP so far this season, playing with Kessel, and JVR 81% of the time. He spends 74% EV-TOI with Kessel, and JVR. Great company if I’d say so myself.

    5v5 Individual Stats (460 TOI): 6 Goals, 11 Assists, 17 Points, 39 Shots, 102.1 PDO, 1.43Pts/60, 9.48 on Ice Sh%, 497 Total FO, 44.2 FF%.
    5V4 Individual Stats (102 TOI): 7 Goals, 4 Assists, 11 Points, 24 Shots, 105.8 PDO, 4.67Pts/60, 15.32 on ice Sh%, 85.1 FF%.

    Toronto score on a whopping 85% of their FF whilst on the PP with Bozak on ice which at first it seems exaggerated but by digging a little further into it you notice his previous seasons are much the same. From 84.6% 13-14 and 85.0% 12-13 so we can expect status quo for that stat, but what this shows is the fact that when he is on the ice they have a successful powerplay. (Unlikely to be demoted from top PP) Now remember he plays with Kessel and JVR both very good at creating on the Powerplay, and 9 of his 11 PPP have come with those two so that does help his numbers.
    So I took a look at his 5v5 on ice sh% which is somewhat low but not by any means alarming sitting at 9.48%. 1021 PDO is solid, and indicates he is quite average in terms of “puck luck”. So question is how can he increase his points, with little chance his puck luck changes drastically, short answer is shoot more, his 2.26 Shots per game is not quite good enough, but it still has allowed him to roll along at a 0.80 Point per game pace. What this data shows fantasy owners is that you should continue getting much of the same from Bozak, it helps he gets the bulk of important draws if your league counts face off wins but not so good if you think about it in terms of zone start advantages/disadvantages. Off Zone start % is 42.5 and if the coach pushed that number closer to 50 he would see an increase in 5v5 goals Bozak will struggle to hit 50 Off Zone start % because of the fact he is a CorRel -10.40 which leads to bad possession numbers (bad possession teams tend to take more DZ starts.
    I think Bozak has the skill and opportunity to get to 70 points this season, and set career highs.
    NFHA categories: G(25) A(25) PIM(3) Hits(2) Blocks(2) PPP(15) SHP(20) Goalie Stats: W(50) Sv(2) ShOu(100) OtL(10) ShL(10) L(-10) GA(-12)
    Cold As Ice Dynasty H2H categories: G A PIM SOG PPP +/- HIT BLK WINS GAA SV% SHO
    Starting Roster:
    Center - Giroux, Krejci, W.Karlsson
    Left Wing - Hall, Guentzel, Danault
    Right Wing - Stone, R.Smith, Compher
    Ultility Forward - Fast, Gaborik
    Defense - Klingberg, Pietrangelo, Jones, C.Miller, Phanuef, E.Johnson
    Goalie - Allen, R.Miller
    Bench - M.Foligno, Sheahan, Laughton, Glendening, Djoos, Jensen, H.Fleury
    Prospects - Kyrou, Andersson Hinostroza, Grundstrom, Roy, Timmins, Grzelcyk, Lauzon, Lindgren

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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    Cool, well done.

    Nice to see some action in the Black Aces section!
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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    I like the article on Bozak. I predicted 70 points for him before the season on this forum, to which many disagreed with. But he was on a 69-point pace last year with a career-worst faceoff winning percentage and a big injury where he's normally healthy. I chose him in three of four drafts I had this year.

    He was actually on a point-per-game pace until recently. He's got just one point in the last five games and just four in the last 10. But he's on the ice when Kessel and JVR are scoring. He happens to be the fourth guy to touch the puck in those instances, so he's not getting the points. You have to figure that will change again and you'll see him go on a run where he gets 10 points in seven or eight games.

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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    ya, I wasn't surprised by his recent snake bitten run it had to happen eventually, he has been remarkably consistent rarely going more then a 2 games without a point, even following pointless streaks with big multi point games!
    NFHA categories: G(25) A(25) PIM(3) Hits(2) Blocks(2) PPP(15) SHP(20) Goalie Stats: W(50) Sv(2) ShOu(100) OtL(10) ShL(10) L(-10) GA(-12)
    Cold As Ice Dynasty H2H categories: G A PIM SOG PPP +/- HIT BLK WINS GAA SV% SHO
    Starting Roster:
    Center - Giroux, Krejci, W.Karlsson
    Left Wing - Hall, Guentzel, Danault
    Right Wing - Stone, R.Smith, Compher
    Ultility Forward - Fast, Gaborik
    Defense - Klingberg, Pietrangelo, Jones, C.Miller, Phanuef, E.Johnson
    Goalie - Allen, R.Miller
    Bench - M.Foligno, Sheahan, Laughton, Glendening, Djoos, Jensen, H.Fleury
    Prospects - Kyrou, Andersson Hinostroza, Grundstrom, Roy, Timmins, Grzelcyk, Lauzon, Lindgren

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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    Good analysis, thank you

    Can you explain how you arrived at this:

    Toronto score on a whopping 85% of their Fenwick for whilst on the PP with Bozak on ice
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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    Good analysis, thank you

    Can you explain how you arrived at this:
    I would also like to know... That's essentially the same thing as saying that Toronto's PP1 is scoring on 85% of their shot attempts (on net and missed) and that is definitely not the case.
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    C: Crosby, Malkin, Giroux, Getzlaf, Barkov
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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    the definition of FF% which was the stat I was referencing (my apologies if it wasn't clear) is % of shots while player is on the ice that were scored by his team = Fenwick For / (Fenwick For + Fenwick Against)
    to me that is telling you that while he is on the ice during 5v4 hockey his team scores on 85% of their shot attempts divided by total Fenwick for (Both teams)
    NFHA categories: G(25) A(25) PIM(3) Hits(2) Blocks(2) PPP(15) SHP(20) Goalie Stats: W(50) Sv(2) ShOu(100) OtL(10) ShL(10) L(-10) GA(-12)
    Cold As Ice Dynasty H2H categories: G A PIM SOG PPP +/- HIT BLK WINS GAA SV% SHO
    Starting Roster:
    Center - Giroux, Krejci, W.Karlsson
    Left Wing - Hall, Guentzel, Danault
    Right Wing - Stone, R.Smith, Compher
    Ultility Forward - Fast, Gaborik
    Defense - Klingberg, Pietrangelo, Jones, C.Miller, Phanuef, E.Johnson
    Goalie - Allen, R.Miller
    Bench - M.Foligno, Sheahan, Laughton, Glendening, Djoos, Jensen, H.Fleury
    Prospects - Kyrou, Andersson Hinostroza, Grundstrom, Roy, Timmins, Grzelcyk, Lauzon, Lindgren

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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    Quote Originally Posted by Wfactor View Post
    the definition of FF% which was the stat I was referencing (my apologies if it wasn't clear) is % of shots while player is on the ice that were scored by his team = Fenwick For / (Fenwick For + Fenwick Against)
    to me that is telling you that while he is on the ice during 5v4 hockey his team scores on 85% of their shot attempts divided by total Fenwick for (Both teams)
    Rather than saying they "score on a whopping 85%". I think you meant to say they have an 85% FF. Which is very different. And you would think that almost every team has at least a 70% FF while on the PP (Shots generated vs shots given up). So I don't think that having 85% of the shots generated while on the PP is a very enticing stat at all.
    Main Squad: H2H Multicat Points
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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    good point, thanks for the edit
    but I do disagree with your point about 85% being a average PP stat, in my opinion on a team like the leafs who struggle keeping the puck properly in the zone would change his value from being just okay to actually quite good considering team and situation.
    NFHA categories: G(25) A(25) PIM(3) Hits(2) Blocks(2) PPP(15) SHP(20) Goalie Stats: W(50) Sv(2) ShOu(100) OtL(10) ShL(10) L(-10) GA(-12)
    Cold As Ice Dynasty H2H categories: G A PIM SOG PPP +/- HIT BLK WINS GAA SV% SHO
    Starting Roster:
    Center - Giroux, Krejci, W.Karlsson
    Left Wing - Hall, Guentzel, Danault
    Right Wing - Stone, R.Smith, Compher
    Ultility Forward - Fast, Gaborik
    Defense - Klingberg, Pietrangelo, Jones, C.Miller, Phanuef, E.Johnson
    Goalie - Allen, R.Miller
    Bench - M.Foligno, Sheahan, Laughton, Glendening, Djoos, Jensen, H.Fleury
    Prospects - Kyrou, Andersson Hinostroza, Grundstrom, Roy, Timmins, Grzelcyk, Lauzon, Lindgren

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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    Quote Originally Posted by Wfactor View Post
    good point, thanks for the edit
    but I do disagree with your point about 85% being a average PP stat, in my opinion on a team like the leafs who struggle keeping the puck properly in the zone would change his value from being just okay to actually quite good considering team and situation.
    Only five leafs have over 50mins of PP time. Their PP FF% are as follows:
    Clarkson: 87.0%
    Bozak: 85.1%
    Kessel: 85.0%
    JVR: 84.4%
    Kadri: 84.1%

    League-wide, Bozak is 132/181 players with over 50mins. I think it's irrelevant. Just my opinion though.
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    C: Crosby, Malkin, Giroux, Getzlaf, Barkov
    LW: Ovechkin, Benn, Landeskog, E. Kane
    RW: Kessel, Perry, Hudler, Atkinson
    D: Letang, Carlson, Yandle, Rielly, Leddy
    G: Schneider, Rask, Anderson

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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    Quote Originally Posted by ztking View Post
    Only five leafs have over 50mins of PP time. Their PP FF% are as follows:
    Clarkson: 87.0%
    Bozak: 85.1%
    Kessel: 85.0%
    JVR: 84.4%
    Kadri: 84.1%

    League-wide, Bozak is 132/181 players with over 50mins. I think it's irrelevant. Just my opinion though.
    This is what was missing - context. Comparables.
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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    This is what was missing - context. Comparables.
    thanks for the critique, I'll definitely take that into account next time I write!
    NFHA categories: G(25) A(25) PIM(3) Hits(2) Blocks(2) PPP(15) SHP(20) Goalie Stats: W(50) Sv(2) ShOu(100) OtL(10) ShL(10) L(-10) GA(-12)
    Cold As Ice Dynasty H2H categories: G A PIM SOG PPP +/- HIT BLK WINS GAA SV% SHO
    Starting Roster:
    Center - Giroux, Krejci, W.Karlsson
    Left Wing - Hall, Guentzel, Danault
    Right Wing - Stone, R.Smith, Compher
    Ultility Forward - Fast, Gaborik
    Defense - Klingberg, Pietrangelo, Jones, C.Miller, Phanuef, E.Johnson
    Goalie - Allen, R.Miller
    Bench - M.Foligno, Sheahan, Laughton, Glendening, Djoos, Jensen, H.Fleury
    Prospects - Kyrou, Andersson Hinostroza, Grundstrom, Roy, Timmins, Grzelcyk, Lauzon, Lindgren

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    Default Re: Boxing Day deals on OEL? Article!

    Quote Originally Posted by Wfactor View Post
    thanks for the critique, I'll definitely take that into account next time I write!
    Any time! Hopefully it didn't sound too harsh. Part of it is I'm a big Leafs fan and Bozak drives me crazy haha. Great article though.
    Main Squad: H2H Multicat Points
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    G:3 A:2 +/-:1 PPP:0.5 PIM:0.25 Shot:0.2 Hit:0.2 Block:0.2
    W:3 SV:0.2 GA:-1 SO:3

    3C 3LW 3RW 5D 2G 5 BENCH 2IR

    C: Crosby, Malkin, Giroux, Getzlaf, Barkov
    LW: Ovechkin, Benn, Landeskog, E. Kane
    RW: Kessel, Perry, Hudler, Atkinson
    D: Letang, Carlson, Yandle, Rielly, Leddy
    G: Schneider, Rask, Anderson

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