My Over/Under picks (NHL props)

[Dobber]

Bodog has their player props up and I'll share with you my picks. There is another thread on this for other members' picks here.

First of all, I understand this is a big responsibility, given that this is my site and I project player points for a living. As such, many readers will take what I say and consider it a sure thing.

Please don't.

There are risks, and when gambling only use your play money. I'm like a Mutual Funds expert with this stuff, except I'm not using actual money that my family relies on, and it's hockey instead of investments. So that means there are risks, but generally speaking I'm confident I will do okay.

The money I use - About 8 years ago I was given about $120 from a company to stick an ad up. But this money was put in "Moneybookers", a service I've never used and never plan to. Several years ago, Puck Daddy noted that Malkin was 30-1 to win the Art Ross Trophy. I thought it was ridiculous and went over there to put 20 bucks on it. Why not, right? When I got there, I saw that they took Moneybookers and I remembered that I might have a balance with that service. Sure enough, I did. So I bet the entire $120 on Malkin. Well, he won the Art Ross. I took $2000 out of those winnings (so I will always be up by $2000 no matter what!). The other $1000 I left there. That's my play money. Last year doing this over/under, I turned $1000 into $1580.

So I'll let that ride!



Now let's get to it.

I don't feel comfortable talking about big money on future wagers, so I'll call the wagers $5, $10, $15 based on levels of risk. Here is what I did. I took the over/under posted and looked at the biggest differential vs my projections. I also heavily favor the 'under'. Last year I picked 'over' 12 times, and was right only 5 of them.

Two wagers were not based on this strategy at all:
$5 - Crosby 'under' 104.5 when my projection is for 105. I'm just hedging Crosby in my league in which I'm a big favorite to win. So if he gets hurt, it's good to have a consolation prize
$5 - Wheeler 'over' 62.5. Yes, my projection is for 70, but that was below my threshold. I still placed the wager because Wheeler is never below 63, what on earth were they thinking? Three straight years being over that number! He also won me the over last year.


Now here are my picks:

For $5
Byfuglien 'under' 56.5
Glencross 'under' 43.5
Toews 'under' 74.5
Callahan 'under' 51.5
Edler 'under' 40.5
Michalek 'under' 41.5
Malkin 'under' 89.5 - for this one my projection was 10 points under, but I still went light because...well, it's Malkin.
H.Sedin 'over' 62.5
Gagner 'over' 39.5

For $10
Hartnell 'under' 49.5
Landeskog 'under' 67.5
Stamkos 'under' 92.5
Kreider 'under' 48.5
Oshie 'under' 59.5

For $15
Vrbata 'over' 50.5
Ladd 'over' 52.5
Semin 'under' 63.5
Giordano 'under' 54.5

[forumname]

Good list, but I wonder about the decision to base the choices simply off of differential vs your rankings.

It doesn't matter how much a player comes in over or under - 1 point is the same as 20 points here. Are there no instances where you are more certain a player might sneak by vs one who has a slimmer chance of shattering the line? I doubt all of your projections are weighted equally in terms of your confidence. For example:

Player A at 50.5 - you have him projected at 70, but know that he very well could blow it and end up with 40.
Player B at 50.5 - you have him projected at 60, and he has posted between 55 and 60 points for 5 years straight.

By the method you used, player A would be the best bet, but is that actually always the case?

I'm thinking about the way you give sleeper projections at x% - shouldn't you apply the same logic with there? Some players are almost certain to fit within a small range, while some could really go either way. E. Kane for example could get 70 points, or he could get 40. Know what I mean?

[Dobber]

Yes, that's a good point. That's where the Wheeler call came in. And that's also why the biggest discrepancy (Malkin) had the smallest wager. And Byfuglien was only off by 3, but I placed a bet anyway. So I use the projections, and fine-tune it with my hunches

[sensfan15]

Ryan seems like a good bet on the over at 53.5, no? I know his health is always a question but in a contract year I don't see him missing games unless its a sever injury.

[Dobber]

Ryan seems like a good bet on the over at 53.5, no? I know his health is always a question but in a contract year I don't see him missing games unless its a sever injury.

That's a good one too, I'm just trying to limit the overs to the best of the best safe picks

[forumname]

I swear I'm not actively trying to poke holes, but in the guide you have Oshie listed at 61 points - why the under?

[LakeSoup]

For $5
Byfuglien 'under' 56.5 - Solid
Glencross 'under' 43.5 - Probably not
Toews 'under' 74.5 - Too early
Callahan 'under' 51.5 - Probably not
Edler 'under' 40.5 - Too early
Michalek 'under' 41.5 - Solid
Malkin 'under' 89.5 - Too early, I like it but could go either way
H.Sedin 'over' 62.5 - I like it but it'll be close; could go either way
Gagner 'over' 39.5 - Not sure tbh

Net: $0 ($25 unsure)

For $10
Hartnell 'under' 49.5 - Not sure tbh
Landeskog 'under' 67.5 - Could be either, will be close, I lean toward agreeing
Stamkos 'under' 92.5 - I think this is a lock, 92.5 is pretty ridiculous
Kreider 'under' 48.5 - Not sure
Oshie 'under' 59.5 - Looking good

Net: +$20 ($30 unsure)

For $15
Vrbata 'over' 50.5 - A lock IMO
Ladd 'over' 52.5 - will be close, either way
Semin 'under' 63.5 - Actually this is the best pick here, a guarantee atm IMO
Giordano 'under' 54.5 - Could go either way; close, he'll slow down but he only needs 28.5 more in 56 more games so I think this'll most likely be wrong

Net: +$30 ($30 unsure)

Worst case scenario: -$35
Best case scenario: +$135

Average: -$35 + $135 / 2 = $50 up!

[Pengwin7]

Dobber did a good job this year.
In truth, though... the only ones you can usually lock in are the unders that are way under (or injured)

Buff, Semin, Oshie are looking like "locks" at this point.

I had Giordano under 54.5 as well... but with 26 in 26, he only needs 29 in 56 to go over... and that's just a 42pt pace.
Sam Gagner isn't looking good to hit either... especially with his ice-time being a 5-year low of 16:46.
Too much center depth in the desert if both Vermette & Hanzal are healthy.

[LakeSoup]

Dobber did a good job this year.
In truth, though... the only ones you can usually lock in are the unders that are way under (or injured)

Buff, Semin, Oshie are looking like "locks" at this point.

I had Giordano under 54.5 as well... but with 26 in 26, he only needs 29 in 56 to go over... and that's just a 42pt pace.
Sam Gagner isn't looking good to hit either... especially with his ice-time being a 5-year low of 16:46.
Too much center depth in the desert if both Vermette & Hanzal are healthy.

You don't think Vrbata's a for sure over 50.5? Barring injury, I think that's less of a lock than the 3 you mentioned but still pretty good. Michalek's under is a pretty sure thing as well methinks, definitely the weakest lock of the 5 though!

HEY PENGWIN NICE COPY AND PASTE OF MY GIO COMMENT!!!!!!
lul

[Pengwin7]

HEY PENGWIN NICE COPY AND PASTE OF MY GIO COMMENT!!!!!!

Teehee.
(Didn't notice that... sorry for regurging...)

[Pengwin7]

BUMPEROO.
Half-way point Dobber... your picks look good.
You should do a review, time pending.

[Dobber]

All my big ones were disallowed. I bet $125 and the limit was $100. They reviewed it and I thought they would send me an email on the result of the review and I could just adjust down to $100. Instead, they didn't. And I forgot. So I didn't wager on any of my biggest locks. So as great as this is, instead of winning maybe $800...I'll probably win $400 if I'm lucky. Sigh

But that's how gambling should be - only gamble what you can afford, and don't care about it so much that you remember all the deadlines

[Dobber]

Here were my picks:

For $5
Byfuglien 'under' 56.5 - YES
Glencross 'under' 43.5 - YES
Toews 'under' 74.5 - YES
Callahan 'under' 51.5 - NO, JUST MISSED
Edler 'under' 40.5 - YES
Michalek 'under' 41.5 - YES
Malkin 'under' 89.5 - YES
H.Sedin 'over' 62.5 - YES
Gagner 'over' 39.5 - YES, BARELY
WHEELER 'OVER' 62.5 - NO, HE HAS 61 AND HE WAS A HEALTHY SCRATCH TODAY.

For $10
Hartnell 'under' 49.5 - NO, NOT EVEN CLOSE
Landeskog 'under' 67.5 - YES
Stamkos 'under' 92.5 - YES
Kreider 'under' 48.5 - YES
Oshie 'under' 59.5 - YES

For $15
Vrbata 'over' 50.5 - YES, BUT MY BET WAS DISQUALIFIED FOR GOING OVER THE $100 BET LIMIT (I BET $120)
Ladd 'over' 52.5 - YES, BUT MY BET WAS DISQUALIFIED FOR GOING OVER THE $100 BET LIMIT (I BET $120)
Semin 'under' 63.5 - YES, BUT MY BET WAS DISQUALIFIED FOR GOING OVER THE $100 BET LIMIT (I BET $120)
Giordano 'under' 54.5 - YES, BUT MY BET WAS DISQUALIFIED FOR GOING OVER THE $100 BET LIMIT (I BET $120)




Regarding Wheeler, I didn't have him on my list here. But that was an oversight because I did place the bet. So I was wrong only three times this year. The idiots at Bodog screwed me out of $400 in winnings with that last part, but I still won $450 all in all. But damned if $850 wouldn't have been better.


Also, if Tavares wins the scoring title, I win $100. Ovechkin, I win $85.

[MarmotKing]

Good for you!

[metaldude26]

Happy to say I followed all of these with $5 bets so I'll be cashing in tomorrow. Also hitting on a $10 bet for Nashville over. Didn't hit the Penguins over though, injuries crippled what looked like a lock. Also missed on my biggest bet $10 on Kane at 35/1 to win the Art Ross. Oh well still churning a nice profit here.