Letang has lost his lustre?

[austeane]

Also, in salary cap leagues with IR... If you get to stash him on the IR then you get to pick up a pricy replacement. So for some leagues, the replacement might be much better than that.

[vitun-tyhmä]

I dont know where those numbers are coming from, but 35 defencemen last year that played over 40 games finished above 38 point pace. In a 10 team league that starts 4 defencemen, almost every team will have 4 defencemen that qualify.

but you bring up a good point, what is an average defenceman? In a league that starts 4 defencemen x 12 teams, we'd need the 48th-60th best defencemen for our bench replacement. thats 30 points-36 points (i am NOT pulling these numbers out of my ass, these are actual stats.

Letang's Points	Games missed x average defenceman's PPG	Total
27	3	30
50	0	50
42	11	53
38	5	43 (pro-rates to 73!)
22	17	39

Again, not shabby, but still not how people view him. The people that look at him as Karlsson's equal overrate him, and the people that view him as a giant injury risk underrate him. His injuries aren't chronic, and if he puts together even half a season, him plus his waiver wire replacement can easily get you 50 points, which is exactly how he should be viewed. I still wouldn't trade him for anything less than Keith or Pietrangelo, purely because if he puts together a WHOLE season, then he really does rival Karlsson (at least for that year).

Pro-rating is a dangerous game to get into when the player never plays a full season
Equally dangerous is the "I'll just pick someone up off the WW" argument, not sure what kind of leagues you're in, but in mine there aren't 40 pt defensemen lying around to be snapped up.
Also I don't know how many IR slots you typically play with, but in my leagues it is 1 or 2 at most, so having a guy constantly filling it makes it hard to use it for anything else.

[Feadur]

also you may not be pulling those numbers out of your ass but I don't know where you are getting them since 27-31 is the points I am looking at for players 48-60

That's total, I looked at the defencemen ranked 48-60 in terms of points per games, and over 40 games played. Makes it more accurate since you don't need every game out of them. Their per-game stats rate to between 30 and 33

[Feadur]

not sure what kind of leagues you're in, but in mine there aren't 40 pt defensemen lying around to be snapped up.

Well like I said, this is for a 12-team league that starts 4 defencemen. I guess the deeper the league the less value letang has because his handcuff can't produce as much. Yours is 14 teams, and it's not points only like mine, so his value will be markedly different, but for points only leagues with less than 48 defencemen being started, again, I value him the same as byfuglien, Keith, and pietrangelo.

[vitun-tyhmä]

Well like I said, this is for a 12-team league that starts 4 defencemen. I guess the deeper the league the less value letang has because his handcuff can't produce as much. Yours is 14 teams, and it's not points only like mine, so his value will be markedly different, but for points only leagues with less than 48 defencemen being started, again, I value him the same as byfuglien, Keith, and pietrangelo.

Sorry if that came off snotty that wasn't my intent.
I just find that that argument gets used a lot with no regard for league specifics and that's often not accurate. In your league a WW d-man is worth 30-35 pts, in my league (14 teams x 6D) , that's about 20 pts, big difference!

[lucifer316]

That's total, I looked at the defencemen ranked 48-60 in terms of points per games, and over 40 games played. Makes it more accurate since you don't need every game out of them. Their per-game stats rate to between 30 and 33

if they happen to miss the same games though their per game stats will be 0

you really can't guarantee that you will get one of these guys and that during the time you will use them they will even perform at that pace, after all scoring is not linear perhaps when you get them they go into a funk

[Feadur]

Sorry if that came off snotty that wasn't my intent.
I just find that that argument gets used a lot with no regard for league specifics and that's often not accurate. In your league a WW d-man is worth 30-35 pts, in my league (14 teams x 6D) , that's about 20 pts, big difference!

not at all, i know how difficult it is to communicate over the internet. s'all good in the hood.

if they happen to miss the same games though their per game stats will be 0

you really can't guarantee that you will get one of these guys and that during the time you will use them they will even perform at that pace, after all scoring is not linear perhaps when you get them they go into a funk

Well the likelihood of them missing the same games is incredibly low, and you CAN guarantee that you'll get one of those guys. if the league is 12 teams x 4 defencemen per team, then either you get a defenceman ranked 48th-60th in PPG, or you get one higher than that because another GM passed on him, which is even better.

and as for the funk, yes that risk is certainly there, but you can also get them on a hot streak. Those two scenarios offset each other equally, but if you wanna dig deeper, you can also consider that having the option to play your waiver wire replacement allows you to choose the games he'll play vs FLA or EDM instead of BOS (although that benefit is extremely small, because you likely wont get that chance often, and who knows if the replacement will even score on those games).

i might be coming off as biased, but i'm honestly not. there ARE viable arguments against this way of looking at Letang, such as letang + his replacement is TWO roster spots, not just one, and command TWO salaries as well (on top of that, Letang isnt cheap either, he doesnt need any extra cash to be added on). But if you can manage it, its a great strategy for maximizing the value you get from him.

The original question was "Has Letang lost his Lustre?", so to that i answer YES. However, if you can make this strategy work, then he's still a gem, he just needs some polishing. Before he does that for you and drives up his value in the eyes of others, he's a great candidate to buy low.

[Fighting_Emu]

The original question was "Has Letang lost his Lustre?", so to that i answer YES. However, if you can make this strategy work, then he's still a gem, he just needs some polishing. Before he does that for you and drives up his value in the eyes of others, he's a great candidate to buy low.

This really sums up how I feel about the whole post nicely. Hes not a Karlsson but you can make it workif hes your 8th-12th defenseman off the board. The value pendelum has swung into "buy low" territory now.

[plug]

His shine is gone in my league.. We have 140 total keepers and I'm thinking he might end up in the draft.

[Fighting_Emu]

Just wanted to say what a great discussion this was. Im kind of biased with Letang as a particular player- but the counter arguments were solid and well stated. In particular Ill be re-evaluating how I view injury prone players, specifically in regards to a league formats "average waiver value". I think its a very intriguing concept and will be sinking some research time into it for my leagues. Great chat Gents- rep coming around!!!

[plug]

Just wanted to say what a great discussion this was. Im kind of biased with Letang as a particular player- but the counter arguments were solid and well stated. In particular Ill be re-evaluating how I view injury prone players, specifically in regards to a league formats "average waiver value". I think its a very intriguing concept and will be sinking some research time into it for my leagues. Great chat Gents- rep coming around!!!

I'm hoping one of the Emu articles comes out of the research!

[Fighting_Emu]

I'm hoping one of the Emu articles comes out of the research!

Haha- thats awesome!! Kind of a busy weekend- but Ill definitely see if I can find anything notewrothy to share later in the week!