Toronto Blue Jays

[2014olympicgold]

I reaaaaaaaaaaaaally wish we could get Bassitt ahead of Berrios....

You trust Bassitt over Berrios?

Berrios vs Tampa this yr:
2GS, 2W-0L, 1.50ERA, 12IP, 0.917WHIP, 11ks, 2BB

Bassitt vs Tampa this yr:
2GS, 1W-1L, 2.77ERA, 13IP, 1.077WHIP, 12ks, 1BB

Both are pretty solid this yr vs Tampa.

If they use Gausman Game 1, I wonder who goes Game 2 and who's schedule for Game3/Game 1 of the next series.

[LawMan]

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/what-is-t...spot-1.6578180

What fun playoff race this has been (I say that now, a week ago not so much)... the math nerds are loving it as well!
Jays have a 97.7% chance of making the playoffs.
The Jays "Magic Number vs. Seattle" is 3... this is the traditional number, 3 Jays wins or Mariner losses guarantees the Jays a playoff birth. Usually a magic number includes 2 teams, 1 leading and 1 trailing.
Since the Jays are essentially leading 3 teams at once they probably have 3 separate magic numbers vs. each team. However, since those teams also play each other their playoffs magic number is lower, but is not strictly linear on chasing team losses (that is a Seattle loss is not a true 1.0 on their playoff magic number)....

Anyways... would love to see the Jays clinch a spot in the next 3 days, which seems very possible, and be allowed to setup their roster for the post season.
Also, would love the Jays to clinch the 6th seed (play Twins) vs. 5 seed (play Rays). I see no problem in resting literally everyone the final day of the season hoping to do so.

[Godin]

Since losing 4 in a row to Texas the Jays have gone 7-2 and went from a 33.6% probability to make the playoffs to a current 97.6%

Jays need to win 3 of their remaining 6 games. More importantly though, they need to win the next 3 to set up their rotation for the playoffs.

Tuesday Sept 26 - Gausman
Wednesday Sept 27 - Berrios
Thursday Sept 28 - Bassitt
Friday Sept 29 - TBD (Ryu)
Saturday Sept 30 - TBD (Kikuchi)
Sunday Oct 1 - TBD (Gausman)

Tuesday Oct 3 - First Wild Card games.

This is where I gave up on them.

Amazing that a team can come out of hibernation with 2 weeks left in the season and make the playoffs. They haven't shown this kind of tenacity since April. Let's see if they can keep it up.

[stevegamer]

Magic numbers get very complicated when you are factoring in 4 teams, and one of them - the Jays - has no chance at one of the spots that other 3 can claim, the AL West title.

So the issue is that you need to look at how they compare to the 3rd place AL West team, that's easy. However, with tiebreakers, things get weird.

Check out what MLB has to say on tiebreakers:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-mlb-po...aker-scenarios

The Blue Jays are in if they finish ahead of one of the 3 AL West teams. They are also in if they end up tied with just the Astros, or if the Rangers win the AL West outright and they are tied with just the Mariners & Astros.

Basically, Astros losses are the best losses, since they & the Mariners are tied in the loss column and the Astros have played 1 more game plus lose itebreaks with the Jays.

[Axeman33]

I knew there was no way in hell the Jays were beating Cole. I said it last time they played him a couple weeks ago. He has their number. Back to back shutout wins for the Yankees makes the job that much tougher.

[2014olympicgold]

At least Seattle lost.

The whole year has been setting themselves up to face Minny. They aren't just bad and inconsistent, they're doing it purposely right? lol.

[PenguinHunter]

At least Seattle lost.

The whole year has been setting themselves up to face Minny. They aren't just bad and inconsistent, they're doing it purposely right? lol.

Who would you rather play in the Wild Card Series?

[Axeman33]

Who would you rather play in the Wild Card Series?

With all the injuries they have, I'd say TB.

[2014olympicgold]

Who would you rather play in the Wild Card Series?

I personally think you should never script games to try and get an opponent. If your goal is the championship, to want a weaker opponent in the 1st round is a losers mentality.

That being said, Minnesota is a much worse team than Tampa. But if you look at H2H this yr....

Vs Minnesota:
2-1, 13RF-10RA @ Minnesota
3-3, 26RF-28RA on the season

Vs Tampa:
3-4, 51RF-16RA @ Tampa (includes a 20-1win though)
5-5, 63RF-47RA on the season

Berrios and Bassitt have better stats vs Tampa this yr. Tampa is missing some big names right now in McClanahan, Franco, a not 100% Arozarena, B.Lowe is on the DL.

The biggest thing is though the 2nd round. If Toronto plays Tampa, round 2 is vs Baltimore. If they play Minny, round 2 is vs Texas.

[Axeman33]

I personally think you should never script games to try and get an opponent. If your goal is the championship, to want a weaker opponent in the 1st round is a losers mentality.

That being said, Minnesota is a much worse team than Tampa. But if you look at H2H this yr....

Vs Minnesota:
2-1, 13RF-10RA @ Minnesota
3-3, 26RF-28RA on the season

Vs Tampa:
3-4, 51RF-16RA @ Tampa (includes a 20-1win though)
5-5, 63RF-47RA on the season

Berrios and Bassitt have better stats vs Tampa this yr. Tampa is missing some big names right now in McClanahan, Franco, a not 100% Arozarena, B.Lowe is on the DL.

The biggest thing is though the 2nd round. If Toronto plays Tampa, round 2 is vs Baltimore. If they play Minny, round 2 is vs Texas.

Neither are comfortable series' for the Jays if they manage to score a run or two and get to the 2nd round.

[2014olympicgold]

Neither are comfortable series' for the Jays if they manage to score a run or two and get to the 2nd round.

For those who want to know:

@ Baltimore 2-4, 20RF-31RA
Season Series vs Baltimore 3-10, 40RF-75RA

@ Texas 1-2, 9RF-16RA
Seasons Series vs Texas 1-6, 20RF-51RA

I'm going to say I rather face Texas, but that a$$ kicking the Jays took recently vs them doesn't give much hope. Texas the 2nd half of the season and August/September has shown they aren't the same team as the first half. But again, picking opponents is a no for me.

[hockeyrobot]

They really know how to burst the excitement bubble. I know King and Cole have been great but cmon boys.

As for the above, I'm not sure the season stats vs Tampa really matter. They don't have Franco, Lowe, McClanahan and I believe some other depth players as well.

[2014olympicgold]

So here's the TBR DTD/IL/NA guys right now:

Randy Arozarena - Active - He missed 3 games with Quad tightness but is playing.
Yandy Diaz - DTD with Hammy Tightness
Brandon Lowe - IL10 (Sept22) - Fractured right Patella. 4-6 weeks
Wander Franco - Obvious
Luke Raley - IL10 (Sept 20) - Neck. Getting close to swinging
Jose Siri - IL10 (Sept 12) - Hand. Scheduled to resume baseball activities today

Shane McClanahan - IL60 - TJS
Jason Adam - IL15 (Sept 23) - Oblique strain. He's out for the first round I think
Drew Rasmussen - IL60 - Elbow
Jeffrey Springs - IL60 - TJS
Shane Baz - IL60 - TJS
Aaron Civale - DTD - Sickness. He skipped a couple of starts but should be starting tonight.

[hockeyrobot]

So here's the TBR DTD/IL/NA guys right now:

Randy Arozarena - Active - He missed 3 games with Quad tightness but is playing.
Yandy Diaz - DTD with Hammy Tightness
Brandon Lowe - IL10 (Sept22) - Fractured right Patella. 4-6 weeks
Wander Franco - Obvious
Luke Raley - IL10 (Sept 20) - Neck. Getting close to swinging
Jose Siri - IL10 (Sept 12) - Hand. Scheduled to resume baseball activities today

Shane McClanahan - IL60 - TJS
Jason Adam - IL15 (Sept 23) - Oblique strain. He's out for the first round I think
Drew Rasmussen - IL60 - Elbow
Jeffrey Springs - IL60 - TJS
Shane Baz - IL60 - TJS
Aaron Civale - DTD - Sickness. He skipped a couple of starts but should be starting tonight.

It's crazy that they are still a threat to beat the Jays.

[2014olympicgold]

It's crazy that they are still a threat to beat the Jays.

It's crazy to think if they had McClanahan and Franco we'd prolly be thinking about playing Baltimore. They are only 2.5games behind the Orioles.

Speaking of the Orioles. If they end up winning the division, they will have the same amount of divisional wins as the Yankees over the last 10yrs (2). And in those 10yrs, Baltimore has 3 100L seasons, and are 700-813 over the 1,513 games played (75-87 avg record over the last 10 seasons). Yankees are 853-660 over the same period (91-71 avg record over the last 10 seasons)