P.K. Subban Will File for Arbitration

[Pengwin7]

SUBBAN.!

[doulos]

SUBBAN.!

Come on now, you're not even being subtle about it any more...haha.

[HockeyProphet]

Only 4 more years left on Price's contract. Maybe he wants a shorter contract and the two buddies can high tail it elsewhere?

[Mr. Guru]

Arbitrator probably award him between 6.5-7m/year.

How does the arbitrator award him less than Phaneuf? I think the arbitrator will award him a hefty amount, and a short term deal. Subban will be thrilled with the outcome.

[Username]

Why don't the Habs want to pay this guy?

[MXHockey]

How does the arbitrator award him less than Phaneuf? I think the arbitrator will award him a hefty amount, and a short term deal. Subban will be thrilled with the outcome.

Good point. UFA at the time (Phaneuf) vs RFA (Subban), thinking their FA status could be a difference in how an arbitrator rules?

Then again, one could compare Subban's contract to Letang's and the arbitrator could give Subban 10m/year.


Thinking about it more he probably gets 7.5-8m............

[Carcillo]

How does the arbitrator award him less than Phaneuf? I think the arbitrator will award him a hefty amount, and a short term deal. Subban will be thrilled with the outcome.

The arbitrator can't use UFA contracts as a comparison. That's how.

[Laendarian]

The arbitrator can't use UFA contracts as a comparison. That's how.

Shea Weber would likely be the closest comparable, he won't get the 9-10m that he could if he held out but the 7.5 baseline Weber got is probably the low end of where he would be. If I were to guess I'd say 8.5, he has a Norris which will make the argument he should get more then Weber did, plus the cap rising.

[MXHockey]

It sounds like Subban at worst will get 7m/year for one or two years. He may as well just take the two year deal and cash in as a UFA.

Makes you wonder if he wants to move on, or maybe the negotiations on his new deal haven't been going well............

[Vanek! at the Disco]

I guess it's a small gamble for PK in the sense that he could suffer a serious injury or something like that but barring that can anyone really see him not being worth a big payday? He's the complete package for a defenseman, perhaps not the best in the league at any single aspect of the game, but really strong in many of them. I get the feeling he does not want to be locked into anything until he holds all the cards and if that means waiting a couple years for UFA then it's not a bad bet on his part, especially as he's going to get paid mad money for the next couple years anyway.

[thatbirdguy]

You can look at this decision from a number of angles. I think its a pretty shrewd move on Subban's part, but the number one thing we need to remember is that this doesn't mean Subban's contract will be decided by the Arbitrator.

The first impact filing for arbitration has is that it means PK can no longer be signed to an offer sheet. This gives Montreal a little bit of breathing room (though you would expect that if PK signed an offer sheet, Montreal would match in an instant). Similarly, PK doesn't have to sign an offer sheet if he doesn't want to. But the arbitration decision means Montreal and Subban still have a few weeks to reach a deal on their own terms without another team stepping into the middle of it. I don't believe arbitration dates are set yet, but last year the earliest was 12 days after the deadline.

Speaking of last year, according to this: (http://www.nhlpa.com/news/2013-14-sa...ation-schedule) 21 players filed for arbitration. 6 (Muzzin, Smith, Martinez, White, Bailey and Condra) reached agreement before the arbitration dates were set. Of the remaining 15, every single one of them reached an agreement before their arbitration hearing.

Sam Gagner - Signed for 3 years
Chris Stewart - 2 years
Eric Tangradi -2 years
Bryan Little - 5 years
Nick Spaling - 1 year
Carl Gunnarsson - 3 years
Blake Wheeler - 6 years
Paul Postma - 2 years
Mark Fraser - 1 year
Mats Zucarello - 1 year
Dale Weise - 1 year
Robert Bortuzzo - 2 years
Jordan Nolan - 2 year
Trevor Lewis - 1 year
Zach Bogosian - 7 years

Now, last year may have been an aberration due to the lockout shortened season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the majority of players who opt for arbitration reach an agreement before the hearing. Teams would rather make a deal on their own terms.

The real question, as noted, is what are PK's intentions? If this goes to arbitration, the Canadiens can only sign him for 2 years at most, and at that point PK can be an unrestricted free agent. Maybe his intent is to force Montreal to sign him short term and get out as a UFA as soon as possible.

The tricky thing though, is Montreal could give him a one-year deal, at the end of which Subban will remain an RFA, with Montreal still having the ability to take him to arbitration that year.

Personally, my thinking is that Subban is trying to put some pressure on the team to settle this as soon as possible. The arbitration date will draw a hard line for negotiations. I choose to believe that both sides want to reach a long term deal, and this can only be done before the hearing.

As for value if it does go to hearing, you're comparing Subban to some of the highest paid D in the league, and the argument can be made to the arbitrator that he's better than most of them - remember what the arbitrator decides isn't necessarily a hockey decision, its argued by lawyers through a legal process. It is hard to argue against a Norris Trophy and point to the fact that it's awarded to "the top defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position". Then you look at Weber at 7.875 (7.5 on his previous contract), Doughty at 7, Pietrangelo at 6.5 (all comparable RFA contracts) and say that none of them have won the trophy before.

If it does go to arbitration, I would find it hard to believe PK would get anything less than 7.

[habs83]

Waste of time to try to guess how much an arbitrator will award him... The two sides will not make it to the arbitrator, like 95% of the players that choose to go this way. Subban (and 19 other players by the way) chose to file because they are entitled to, and it's a negociation tool that their agents thought was useful. They now have a firm deadline date to negociate, and the Habs will make him the highest paid Dman in the league (on per year basis) for a long time.

[Pengwin7]

It will be interesting to see what Subban gets... but I believe it will actually be lower than $7m.
I don't believe an arbitrator can factor in an inflating cap (I might be wrong) and has to find comparitive situations and contracts.
Too bad for people that ditched him in a cap league - wish I had thought about arbitration when giving advice about that. (sorry to those that did)

[Kofax]

It will be interesting to see what Subban gets... but I believe it will actually be lower than $7m.
I don't believe an arbitrator can factor in an inflating cap (I might be wrong) and has to find comparitive situations and contracts.

At the very least the arbitrator should factor in inflation when comparing to previous contracts, so we're talking somewhere between 2 and 4%, resulting in an increase of $300,000 to 800,000 on any previous deal. Given this fact and his Norris, I can't see him getting any less than $7 million per year. The only knock against Subban may be his age and his supposed benchings last season which were seemingly fabricated by Montreal for his purpose (why else do you bench your best player in key situations?).

[MarmotKing]

MTL is really starting to mess things up with Subban. Pay the guy. Who else has talent and would want to come play in MTL to replace him?