2019 - The BIG 4

[Darren_Kennedy]

I had to think about this for an article - who will the BIG 4 in 2019?

It's 5 years from now which means that Ovechkin, Crosby, and Malkin will all be nearing (if not already in) their declining years. Stamkos will only be 29, so we can safely assume he'll still be around. But who else?

Some obvious names to consider:

Seguin, Hall, Tavares, MacKinnon, McDavid....

I know I've missed many. If you had to decide today, who will be the "new" big 4?

[Dobber]

Tavares, MacKinnon, McDavid look good for the Big 3 title and making it a Big 4. Stamkos doesn't belong there - he's never hit 100 points and I doubt he ever will, and in my books you at least need the potential to reach 115 points to join the club. I'm not saying JT and NMac will, but I'm saying the jury is still out and I'll give them a couple of years to know for sure. Stamkos, I think I've seen enough. Star player, love the guy. But not in the Crosby stratosphere.

[The Bottlenecker]

J. Tavares, MacK & McDavid are there, and I am sure to hear about this, but I am going to say Taylor Hall. By age 21, he was already a point per game player who accounted for a crazy % of Even strength points the whole team scored last year, so he has something special. If his supporting cast of RNH, Eberle, Perron, Yakupov ( probably not), j. Shultz & Nurse (someday soon) remain in Edmonton and start to meet expectations, than why can't Hall be one of the Big 4? In five years he'll only be 27 and in his prime.

[golfguy1672]

Crosby will only be 31ish by my calculations. He will likely still be the best player in the world then. Unless his noodle goes to mush.

Tavares, stamkos, hall, giroux, mcdavid maybe. Mackinnon looks like he could get there.

[Darren_Kennedy]

Stamkos is SO tricky for me. If he's posting 55+ goals and over 90 points consistently I would tend to have him in the top 4. Having that level of guaranteed production is a comfort level that many other elite guys don't provide.

That said, I can understand your hesitation since his game doesn't lend itself to 100+ seasons where he single-handedly wins your pool

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Crosby will only be 31ish by my calculations. He will likely still be the best player in the world then. Unless his noodle goes to mush.

Tavares, stamkos, hall, giroux, mcdavid maybe. Mackinnon looks like he could get there.

Good point on Sid, he'll be younger than I gave him credit for. The only potential issue is that he'll be 14 years into his NHL career, a lot of miles for someone who is only 31.

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J. Tavares, MacK & McDavid are there, and I am sure to hear about this, but I am going to say Taylor Hall. By age 21, he was already a point per game player who accounted for a crazy % of Even strength points the whole team scored last year, so he has something special. If his supporting cast of RNH, Eberle, Perron, Yakupov ( probably not), j. Shultz & Nurse (someday soon) remain in Edmonton and start to meet expectations, than why can't Hall be one of the Big 4? In five years he'll only be 27 and in his prime.

Couldn't agree more. Hall was on pace for 90+ in the lockout and we have to believe his numbers will only improve as those around him (RNH, Yak...etc) move further along their developmental curve

[STONE.]

A couple years back, there were a bunch of threads arguing Mike Green should be in the Big 4 -- the numbers he was putting up were making the rest of the NHLs d-men look silly (fantasy-wise).

Karlsson has to be in the same discussion NOW and is young enough that if he keeps doing what he's doing for the next 5 years, it'll be even clearer.

[plug]

A couple years back, there were a bunch of threads arguing Mike Green should be in the Big 4 -- the numbers he was putting up were making the rest of the NHLs d-men look silly (fantasy-wise).

Karlsson has to be in the same discussion NOW and is young enough that if he keeps doing what he's doing for the next 5 years, it'll be even clearer.

In leagues that have extra points for d scoring, Karlsson is already there. In my league he is the top player to own.

[mounD]

Yeah, I wouldn't move EK unless Sid/Geno/JT/OV were coming back in the deal somewhere. He's just that good as a Dman, impressive stuff.

[JagrBomb]

i don't think we'll see anyone crosby good for a while. even now i don't see a big 3 or big 4...crosby is on a next level...i guess i'd put malkin in the same group as him, but he isn't as consistent. i still think malkin is the best player in the world when he's on his game, even better than crosby. but crosby brings his A game more often than malkin does.

so in 2019, i still see it as potentially if these guys hit their upsides:

tier 0 (110+): crosby/malkin

tier 1(100-110): tavares/mackinnon/mcdavid

tier 2(90-100): hall/seguin/stamkos/giroux


i think realistically there won't be many guys in tier 1, just a bunch of guys in tier 2 and then crosby/malkin who if healthy will break 100 easily.

[Big Baby]

100+ (next 3-5yrs)
Sid
Tavares
MacKinnon
Giroux
-
90-99 (next 3-5 yrs)
Stamkos
Hall
RNH
Geno
P Kane

[The Bottlenecker]

Proof I am not (completely) crazy.

I wrote June 19 that I think Taylor Hall could easily be one of the big 4 guys in the league by 2019. Today in the Daily Ramblings, Rick Roos wrote this in his article:

"Get this - in 2013-14 Taylor Hall had 80 points (tied for 6th in the NHL), of which 62 were scored at even strength (4th in the NHL). And apparently 53 of those 62 points were tallied at 5x5. But what’s truly amazing is that Hall’s 5x5 IPP was 98.1%! That means Hall got a point on 53 of the 54 goals scored at 5x5 while he was on the ice! And if you look at players who skated for more than 1000 minutes at 5x5 during 2013-14, the next highest IPP was Alex Ovechkin at 87.9% - well less than Hall.

My first instinct was to predict a huge downward correction next season; but in 2012-13 Hall’s IPP at 5x5 was 94.3%! So this wasn’t a case of a one hit wonder – not at all.

In terms of an explanation, I think two things are at play. First, Hall is an amazing talent. To do this at all, let alone as a winger, is spectacular. But before we get too carried away, this accomplishment also was a function of Edmonton being a pretty bad offensive team, particularly on the blue line.

Right now Hall is the offensive anchor and catalyst for Edmonton both because he’s great and because they essentially have no other choice. As the team improves (or should I say “if” instead of “as”?), you have to figure that other players – particularly defensemen – will begin to cannibalize Hall’s IPP.

That being said, there’s still good news in the bad news, since as Edmonton’s scoring goes up (they finished 26th in 2013-14 in goals scored, and 20th in 2012-13), there’ll be more goals in general, so even if Hall’s IPP drops to a more modest 80-85%, he could still maintain similar (perhaps even increased) production if Edmonton only scores roughly 15-20% more goals at 5x5 while he’s on the ice.

Long story short – Taylor Hall is a special player. And he’s actually my choice for the next NHLer to pass the 90 point mark who hasn’t done so already."

Looks like I have at least one other person who sees Hall's incredible potential.

[Pengwin7]

Crosby, Tavares, McDavid.
Big three. I still see Crosby putting up big numbers in 2019.
These three guys will be over 100pts, that's all.

[Darren_Kennedy]

Crosby, Tavares, McDavid.
Big three. I still see Crosby putting up big numbers in 2019.
These three guys will be over 100pts, that's all.

As much as Ovechkin's production can vary year to year his hit and shot totals make it almost impossible to have him outside the top 4. Even 65 points with 50 goals, 400 shots, 200 hits is an early first rounder.

[JagrBomb]

As much as Ovechkin's production can vary year to year his hit and shot totals make it almost impossible to have him outside the top 4. Even 65 points with 50 goals, 400 shots, 200 hits is an early first rounder.

big 4 should be the big 4 in any league. in 5 years i'd be surprised if ovy could get 40 goals let alone 50

[STLblues]

E Karlsson - when you are that young and that much better than everyone else at your position you are a dead lock for top four.

Sidney Crosby - The best in the world still at 31 years old.

Nate MacKinnon - The talent is there and so is the supporting cast. (Something I'm a little skeptical of with Tavvy)

Taylor Hall - The absolute engine for his team which SHOULD supply lots of fire power 5 years from now.