Everyone seems to have forgotten Holtby's woes last year, and many are predicting bigger & better things from the young net minder now that Trotz is the Capitals coach, and Mitch Korn is the new goaltending coach there. Smith, in his early 30's, looked tired at times last year, and I don't think he will ever match his career year in 2011-12. If you like to gamble, then Holtby may be worth the risk.
Mind you, with your settings, I would think a guy like Wayne Simmonds would be pretty valuable too. But if you are set on keeping a tender, you know how I feel.